With the enourmous critical AND box office success, they are going to give the film major awards. It might pull "Annie Hall", but I don't think so. Cody has a good chance for best original screenplay, but at this point I think there is one - and only one - lock for the Oscars.

Ellen Page has no competition.

She is Hollywood's favourite young rising star right now. She is actually a great actress in the heavy-weight sense. In the sense like Cate Blanchett or Meryl Streep are great actresses. And she gave a great performance in a beloved movie. And her competition this year isn't that impressive.

The first actual lock for an Oscar win.

Who's in?

Competition isn't that impressive?

Christie and Cotillard gave two of the best performances in years. Anyone that has seen either of those two films won't vote for her.

While I found her performance amazing, I don't believe that she is a lock. I think age might play against her.

You don't really think that the best actor or best actress are voted based on the objectively *best* performance? It's a popularity vote and a support vote.

Christie has already won one best Actress Oscar and has gathered two previous nominations. Her Oscar will work against her, as there is no need for a "lifetime" Oscar. Away From Her got great reviews, but almost nobody saw it, and there isn't any other Oscar buzz for it.

As for Cotillard, nobody in USA even knows who she is, and almost nobody saw La Vien En Rose, which will struggle to get any other nominations despite having a solid critical response.

Cotillard isn't even in the game, Christie is the only one who *might* give Page a challenge. But like I said, she already has an Oscar and her film isn't getting any other substantial buzz.

I'm actually pretty confident in Christie here

She most certainly is not.

I'm pretty sure if anyone has it "in the bag" at this point, it's Julie Christie. However, I think she's the only nominee who will be able to challenge Christie.

I wish she was a lock since Christie wasn't even very good in the vastly overrated bore Away from Her.

I wouldn't say she has it in the bag at this point, but I think she's probably the front runner due to the film's box office and popularity. Admittedly, I had to check to see what movie Julie Christie was in to put two-and-two together. I think based on the critical response to Away From Her, Christie is automatically in the running, but I think Page has a little bit of a lead at this point.

Heh I've been calling Christie since around May but nobody wants to believe me. I haven't seen Juno but I have a hard time believing Page is better (yes i know it's not always based on who actually gave the best performance). Cotillard comes close but it hasn't gotten as much support as I thought it would.

I do wonder (especially if the Oscar telecast goes on) if Christie's elusiveness might play against her. If there's any question about whether she'll be in attendance on Oscar night, would some people not vote for her?

But, no, Page doesn't have it "in the bag." Or close to it.

Julie Christie's win was 41 years ago; I don't think that will hinder her in any way.

Well, it can't be "in the bag" if she isn't even considered the frontrunner. She's got a legit shot at winning, but Christie's the frontrunner, so "in the bag" is quite a bold statement to make at this point.

She could win, but no way in hell does she have it in the bag. If (and that's a big IF) she wins over Christie and Cotillard, it will be a squeaker.

She has a better chance of winning than Cottilard. I don't think Cottilard has won many - if any - awards...Page at least has a few by her side.

Cotillard has won a critics award or two. She won't win though. Actually, she might be only hurting Christie, because the serious voters will be splitting between those two.

says who?

The more surprising thing I find about the first posting is the statement that the screenplay only "has a good chance". Because that one is pretty much locked.

Nope. Christie, while Page's was excellent, gave a much better preformance is almost, almost, the Mirren of this year.

No she didn't and the film Away from Her was a bore and nowhere near as well-liked by the public and critics alike as Juno.

You forgot about the public, which has obviously chosen...

The public matters more since they're the ones who make the studios money, not critics.

They don't decide the Oscar, though.

You really think it would do well if it played on over 3,000 screens? No because it's a dull, narcolepsy-inducing film.

They help. The Oscar voters are influenced by how much money a movie makes, I guarantee it.

Neither do critics.

Oscars are influenced by critical praise, by audience praise and B.O, and Hollywood's own preferences. In the end the only thing that matters is how much the SAG members like the performance.

And critic-wise, Away From Her has a 8.0 average, and Juno has a 8.1 average. So the two are even.

If she would have never won an Oscar, she would be the frontrunner. This would be the last chance for the Academy to giver her one.

But they already did, so there is no need for lifetime award.