I had Atonement in my predictions, but I was beginning to figure that of the December releases, only one would probbly make it, Juno's buzz started peaking right around the voting time, plus it's an American film by an American director, probably making its visibility better than Atonement. However, there's no way PTA has a better shot than Penn and Gilroy, simply because the release of those two gives them a major, major advantage over the minimally screened TWBB (Well, compared to the other December releases).

Yes, PTA is still a question mark of sorts, but it's such a loved movie I'd be willing to put my hands on fire for it.

Hey, I was down on Atonement's chances long before I hated it.

Atonement was a pretty late release that hasn't had real buzz since September. You'll excuse me if I don't break out the red carpet for it, although it's in the running. I think as many as three slots are up for grabs, but I'd be surprised if either the Coens (duh) or Penn was left out.

There's at least nine legitimate contenders here. Lumet, I grant, is a stretch, but hey, you gotta be in it to win it.

At this point though, I still think there's no way PTA misses the Oscar nod, director wise. At the very least he'll be the lone director that replaces Reitman.

As for Gilroy... statheads, when was the last time we had a 3/5 split? I would normally say Schnabel can beat him, but if 3/5 never happens, they might just give him a nom.

2001, when Moulin Rouge was somehow snubbed out of a Director nom. After that, '95. I think we're ripe for another one.

Yet another final predictions:

Ridley Scott
Ethan and Joel Coen
P.T. Anderson
Tony Guilroy
Sean Penn

Alt: Joe Wright

At the Oscars, I expect Wright to replace Guilroy.

WGA predictions:

Adapted
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alt. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Original
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Juno
Knocked Up
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Alt. Eastern Promises

Adapted
Atonement
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
There Will Be Blood

Original
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Juno
Knocked Up
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille

Basically keep all the major BP contenders in the game.

Animated films don't qualify for the WGA awards, I believe. So don't expect Ratatouille. Also, Once might not qualify if John Carney isn't a WGA member (Once is 100% Irish, so...)

Before the Devil Knows You're Dead getting a nomination Yuck.

Animated films don't quality for the WGA? What the fuck?? Apparently animated films don't have scripts written by writers now? That's stupid beyond belief.

Peace,
Mike

Hmm, looks like it. I went back 10+ years, and no animated features have been nominated for WGA.

Well, The Incredibles was nominated for an Oscar for its screenplay. So you can't really say that Rat. is really all that different from it.

Heh, I completely missed the third page. But yeah, someone said that at OscarWatch a few years back, and with their history I'm inclined to assume they were right.

Well, I was more referring to you saying that Rat., as Pixar's best-reviewed movie, has more of a chance to get a WGA nod. It seems like The Incredibles probably should have gotten one as well. Which lends more credence to the animated films not eligible theory.

Found something, written back in 2005:

and makes no sense.
Animators strike against the writers!

PGA updated predictions:

There Will Be Blood
Juno
No Country for Old Men
Michael Clayton
Atonement

Meh, Michael Clayton is solid. It's going to finish a little bit outside my end-of-the-year top ten.

Juno is where I have the dilemma. On the one hand, I don't really think it's deserving of a Picture nomination, but on the other hand, I'd like to see it happen so that nobody can bitch about how there isn't an audience-friendly picture in the lineup.

DGA + support from everywhere + no hate from anywhere = PGA nom = Oscar nom. Clayton's very likely getting in at this point. However, all the competition from those boderline films - Into the Wild, Atonement, Sweeney Todd, Diving Bell, and even American Gangster - could mean that we could find ourselves surprised on Oscar noms morning.

Apart from No Country for Old Men, there's no movie I'm yet willing to call a lock for a Picture nod. Seriously...

Into the Wild: Great movie (the best of the contenders outside of No Country IMO) and support from DGA, SAG, and BFCA, but the Globes snubbed it, so a miss is conceivable if it doesn't score the PGA and ACE nods.

There Will Be Blood: Lots of raves and looks absolutely fantastic, but it might be too difficult a movie for the Academy to swallow (from what I've heard, at least) and it came out pretty late in the game. Though I don't think that will work against it, it could be a factor.

Michael Clayton: Lots of guild support so far, but there's always the challenge that comes from not being a big "emotions" movie. That's probably one of the bigger factors in the snubbings of Walk the Line and Dreamgirls. And there's the possibility we could see the "liked, not loved" card played.

Juno: Picking up buzz fast, but it may seem a little immature for voters and there aren't really a lot of other places to nominate it. But Ebert's love is a HUGE plus because it attaches a major credible source to the movie's love train.

Atonement: Lots of buzz to begin with and it's probably going to do very well in the technical categories, but the lack of love thus far is pretty discouraging.

Diving Bell and the Butterfly: DGA nod is a major plus and raves have been there, but it's a foreign film and it seems damned tiny up against these other movies. Still, it has a big emotional pull and Schnabel could definitely show up for directing, so it's not out of the question.

Sweeney Todd: With no PGA nod, it's officially dead. One would think Burton would have made it with the DGA considering some are touting this as a career best (or close to it). The buzz died shortly after it began. It could still have a last-minute surge, but those chances are looking less and less likely by the day.

I don't know why we should still consider American Gangster to be in the race. I guess it could be if it got a PGA nod, but it just doesn't seem like there's much love for it. I mean, its lead actor is Denzel Washington, and despite a very good turn, he's a longshot for the nomination, which in itself kind of speaks for how low the buzz is for the film when a name as huge as Washington can't pull an SAG nod or much buzz for that matter after the approval of the critical community upon release. I think he may be falling into the Tom Hanks range where he really has to do something amazing in order to even be considered after the past work he's done.

Any ETA's on those two?

PGA predix

Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

WGA predictions:

Adapted:

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Atonement
There Will Be Blood
No Country for Old Men

Alt.: Charlie Wilson's War


Original:

Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
The Savages
Knocked Up
Juno
Michael Clayton

They better be up soon.

There's only so much laziness in bed I'm allowed to have this morning.