Even though it won Best Director at Cannes, the film was never on my radar until it showed up on MC's "Current High Scores" list several weeks ago, and I still never really gave a thought that it could be a contender since:

1) It's foreign;
2) It's small;
3) Out of the cast and crew, only Max von Sydow has received an Oscar nomination;
4) It just felt really out-fetched.

However, that sentiment has changed dramatically once critics awards started. The film isn't not only getting mentioned or just winning Foreign Film, it has been in contention for the best film of the year honor in various circles, like Crouching Tiger and Letters from Iwo Jima did. And now GG. Not only it got a Director nom like those two films, it did one better, receiving a nom in the ultra-competitive, combined Screenplay category. I need to do a research, but when was the last time a film got those two at GG but missed out a BP nomination at the Oscar?

Sure, it doesn't have Clint or Ang Lee, but it has a story that will shake and paralyze people, and I think that will be the key. It's a film that appeals to academy voters, as long as they watch it, and the film doesn't lose its power on DVD. With critics behind it, and many violent films in the mix, I think it may just pull off such feat.

I would if it wasn't so apparantley arty. Oscar doesn't mix well with the niche experimental group.

Oh, and Match Point and Closer did it.

Yeah, Match Point, Closer were both really beloved by the HFPA.

Is it eligible for Foreign Film?

Nope.

I wish.

Methinks France submitted Persepolis, no?

Yep. And that may actually help its BP cause, as the FYC ad is shrewdly reminding people of that fact.

you know, it actually COULD happen, which is very surprising to say, but...

last year's foreign-language BP nom, Letters from Iwo Jima, got in and deservedly so, but honestly, had it been directed by a non-legend instead of Clint Eastwood, I highly doubt it would have made it in there. Same goes here: No big names will make it VERY hard for this to get in over other aspiring hopefuls like Juno, American Gangster, Michael Clayton, and Charlie Wilson's War, which all have huge names attached and got very strong reactions themselves.

At the moment, I'm not putting my money on it, but it definitely could happen. And that would be a bold move by the Academy, a bold move that I'd like.

A Director nom is more likely, though...apparently, the film lives off Schnabel's amazing artistic visual feel, so I think he really could pull off a nom, which could replace Juno's Jason Reitman if his film picks up the last BP nom.

I just realized that the screenwriter of this film Ronald Harwood was the one who penned The Pianist, where his Adapted Screenplay got the upset win over The Hours and Adaptation 5 years ago.

Yeah, the crew has been nominated and won before, unlike I first thought.

I'd love to see Janusz Kaminski nominated again. To break his Spielberg tradition.

Not in.

I'm pretty sure it'll get a BD nom though.

Hm, responded to this post with disagreement over on the AD forums, but after thinking about it a little bit, I think this may have a much better chance than I first suspected.

Because of the way the Academy nominations work, we could have a movie like Michael Clayton be left simply by virtue of #1 ballots (Dreamgirls style) and a movie where people are passionate enough to vote for it #1 (i.e. TWBB and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) inserted in its place.

Little too early to know for sure without any inkling which way the guilds are going, but I think this has a good chance.

They aren't submitting it to the Foreign Film ghetto, which definitely ups its chances.

So are these the categories that it could potentially get nominated in?

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Editing
Best Makeup
Best Original Score

Yup. I think it's actually FYC'ing two supporting actreses though. The acting noms won't happen. Everything else is possible, though.

Good call, it's not there yet but wow what a boost today

Yeah, an unbelievable boost indeed, especially considering its late release (and the director isn't as well regarded as PTA) and the big size of DGA. The makeup shortlist and ASC noms also show it has general support among the academy members.

In.

It has a chance, but it took a major directing name to get Letters from Iwo Jima - which was just as positively received - to pick up a nomination. I'm quite sure this'll be nominated for Director, but there's such a cram for Best Picture at this point that I doubt this'll sneak in.

It could happen, but I doubt it will. It would be quite the notable nomination morning surprise, I think.

Another boost from WGA today. Yeah, it's kind of expected, but still an achievement for a foreign film.

A foreign film that's screenplay is mostly repetition of the alphabet.

I stay out, predicting Adapted Screenplay/Cinematography/Director nods for it (maybe make-up too).