FILM
"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum
"Charlie Wilson's War
"Control"
"Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Eastern Promises
"Into the Wild
"Juno
"The Kite Runner"
"The Lives of Others"
"Lust, Caution"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

DIRECTOR
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Control"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Eastern Promises"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"The Lives of Others"
"Lust, Caution"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"3:10 to Yuma"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Brick Lane"
"Charlie Wilson's War"
"Control"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix"
"Into the Wild"
"The Kite Runner
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
"Lust, Caution"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"American Gangster"
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Eastern Promises"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"Hot Fuzz"
"In the Valley of Elah"
"Juno"
"Knocked Up"
"The Lives of Others"
"Michael Clayton"
"Once"
"Ratatouille"
"Things We Lost in the Fire"
"This is England"
"La Vie en Rose"

MAKE UP & HAIR
"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"Charlie Wilson's War"
"Control"
"Eastern Promises"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"The Golden Compass"
"Hairspray"
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix"
"Lust, Caution"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
"Stardust"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"
"La Vie en Rose"

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
"300"
"Atonement"
"Beowulf"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"The Golden Compass"
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix"
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
"Spider-Man 3"
"Stardust"
"Sunshine"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Transformers"

SOUND
"300"
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Control"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"Hairspray"
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"
"La Vie en Rose"

EDITING
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Control"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Eastern Promises"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"Into the Wild"
"The Kite Runner"
"The Lives of Others"
"Lust, Caution"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

COSTUME DESIGN
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Charlie Wilson's War"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"The Golden Compass"
"Hairspray"
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix"
"Lust, Caution"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
"Stardust"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"
"La Vie en Rose"

PRODUCTION DESIGN
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"The Golden Compass"
"Hairspray"
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix"
"The Kite Runner"
"The Lives of Others"
"Lust, Caution"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"
"La Vie en Rose"

CINEMATOGRAPHY
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Control"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"Into the Wild"
"The Kite Runner"
"The Lives of Others"
"Lust, Caution"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"La Vie en Rose"

ANIMATED FILM
"Bee Movie"
"Beowulf"
"Ratatouille"
"Shrek the Third"
"The Simpsons Movie"

MUSIC
"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Control"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"Lust, Caution"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"
"La Vie en Rose"

LEADING ACTOR
Christian Bale (Dan Evans) - "3:10 to Yuma"
Daniel Day-Lewis (Daniel Plainview) - "There Will Be Blood"
Denzel Washington (Frank Lucas) - "American Gangster"
Emile Hirsch (Chris McCandless) - "Into the Wild"
George Clooney (Michael Clayton) - "Michael Clayton"
James McAvoy (Robbie Turner) - "Atonement"
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) - "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Josh Brolin (Llewelyn Moss) - "No Country for Old Men"
Matt Damon (Jason Bourne) - "The Bourne Ultimatum"
Russell Crowe (Ben Wade) - "3:10 to Yumav
Sam Riley (Ian Curtis) - "Control"
Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson) - "Charlie Wilson's War"
Tommy Lee Jones (Hank Deerfield) - "In the Valley of Elah"
Ulrich Muhe (Hauptmann Gerd Wiesler) - "The Lives of Others"
Viggo Mortensen (Nikolai) - "Eastern Promises"

LEADING ACTRESS
Angelina Jolie (Mariane Pearl) - "A Mighty Heart"
Cate Blanchett (Queen Elizabeth I) - "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Charlize Theron (Emily Sanders) - "In the Valley of Elah"
Ellen Page (Juno MacGuff) - "Juno"
Halle Berry (Audrey Burke) - "Things We Lost in the Fire"
Helena Bonham Carter (Mrs Lovett) - "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Julie Christie (Fiona Andersson) - "Away From Her"
Katherine Heigl (Alison Scott) - "Knocked Up"
Keira Knightley (Cecilia Tallis) - "Atonement"
Marion Cotillard (Edith Piaf) - "La Vie en Rose"
Marketa Irglova (Girl) - "Once"
Martina Gedeck (Christa-Maria Sieland) - "The Lives of Others"
Naomi Watts (Anna) - "Eastern Promises"
Nikki Blonsky (Tracy Turnblad) - "Hairspray"
Tang Wei (Wong Chai Chi/Mak Tai Tai) - "Lust, Caution"

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ahmad Khan Mahmoodzada (Young Hassan) - "The Kite Runner"
Armin Mueller-Stahl (Semyon) - "Eastern Promises"
Casey Affleck (Robert Ford) - "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Chiwetel Ejiofor (Huey Lucas) - "American Gangster"
Clive Owen (Sir Walter Raleigh) - "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Geoffrey Rush (Sir Francis Walsingham) - "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Hal Holbrook (Ron Franz) - Into the Wild"
Javier Bardem (Anton Chigurh) - "No Country for Old Men"
John Travolta (Edna Turnblad) - "Hairspray"
Paul Dano (Eli Sunday/Paul Sunday) - "There Will Be Blood"
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Gust Avrakotos) - "Charlie Wilson's War"
Russell Crowe (Detective Richie Roberts) - "American Gangster"
Tom Wilkinson (Arthur Edens) - "Michael Clayton"
Tommy Lee Jones (Ed Tom Bell) - "No Country for Old Men"
Vincent Cassel (Kirill) - "Eastern Promises"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney (Bren MacGuff) - "Juno"
Brenda Blethyn (Grace Turner) - "Atonement"
Cate Blanchett (Jude) - "I'm Not There"
Catherine Keener (Jan Burres) - "Into the Wild"
Joan Allen (Pamela Landy) - "The Bourne Ultimatum
Julia Roberts (Joanne Herring) - "Charlie Wilson's War"
Kelly MacDonald (Carla Jean Moss) - "No Country for Old Men"
Michelle Pfeiffer (Lamia) - "Stardust
Michelle Pfeiffer (Velma Von Tussle) - "Hairspray"
Romola Garai (Briony Tallis - aged 18) - "Atonement"
Samantha Morton (Debbie Curtis) - "Control"
Samantha Morton (Mary Stuart) - "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Saoirse Ronan (Briony Tallis - aged 13) - "Atonement"
Tilda Swinton (Karen Crowder) - "Michael Clayton"
Vanessa Redgrave (Older Briony) - "Atonement"

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111797 ... id=19&cs=1

The lack fo Will Smith on even a long list makes me sad and angry.

man...Sweeney Todd couldn't even make the longlist...I think its chances are extremely thin at this point.

Happy for the love toward Lust, Caution, even though it probably won't translate to many actual nominations.

No Sweeney Todd in Picture and Director even for the long list, not good to say the least.

It didn't even make it for director???

The only BP/BD split here is No Mike Nichols for Direction of CWW and James Mangold for 3:10 to Yuma without the film being on the longlist for BP.

Bad blow for Sweeney Todd. Though Hairspray ain't on either. Maybe they just don't like musicals, hehe.

they went so far as to nominate Michelle Pfeiffer....I think they gave a great deal more love to Hairspray than necessary as is.

Quick thoughts:

Yeah, Sweeney is looking increasingly screwed.

Go Bourne!

Also, Janney made it for Juno, yet Garner didn't. Dayum.

Weird that Mangold made the Direction list but not Picture. You think it would be more likely to go the other way...

I'll make predictions in a bit.

Oh, and NCFOM making the shortlist for Music is kinda hilarious.

And SEVENTEEN mentions for Atonement.

Thirteen mentions for There Will Be Blood which I consider to be quite great for that one.

I didn't even think it would get a mention for Brenda Blethyn who wasn't as memorable as Vanessa Redrage, as far as glorified cameos go.

Rough early predictions:

FILM
Atonement
Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Alt. Juno

DIRECTOR
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alt. Eastern Promises

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alt. Control

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eastern Promises
Juno
The Lives of Others
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
Alt. Once

MAKE UP & HAIR
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Hairspray
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
La Vie en Rose
Alt. Atonement

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
300
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Sunshine
Transformers
Alt. The Golden Compass

SOUND
Atonement
The Bourne Ultimatum
Control
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Alt. No Country for Old Men

EDITING
Atonement
The Bourne Ultimatum
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alt. Control

COSTUME DESIGN
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
La Vie en Rose
Alt. Hairspray

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
The Golden Compass
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Alt. There Will Be Blood

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alt. Lust, Caution

ANIMATED FILM
Bee Movie
Beowulf
Ratatouille
Shrek the Third
The Simpsons Movie

MUSIC
Atonement
Into the Wild
Lust, Caution
Once
There Will Be Blood
Alt. Control

LEADING ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis (Daniel Plainview) - "There Will Be Blood"
Emile Hirsch (Chris McCandless) - "Into the Wild"
George Clooney (Michael Clayton) - "Michael Clayton"
James McAvoy (Robbie Turner) - "Atonement"
Viggo Mortensen (Nikolai) - "Eastern Promises"
Alt. Sam Riley (Ian Curtis) - "Control"

LEADING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Queen Elizabeth I) - "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Ellen Page (Juno MacGuff) - "Juno"
Julie Christie (Fiona Andersson) - "Away From Her"
Keira Knightley (Cecilia Tallis) - "Atonement"
Marion Cotillard (Edith Piaf) - "La Vie en Rose"
Alt. Angelina Jolie (Mariane Pearl) - "A Mighty Heart"

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck (Robert Ford) - "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Geoffrey Rush (Sir Francis Walsingham) - "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Hal Holbrook (Ron Franz) - Into the Wild"
Javier Bardem (Anton Chigurh) - "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson (Arthur Edens) - "Michael Clayton"
Alt. Philip Seymour Hoffman (Gust Avrakotos) - "Charlie Wilson's War"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Jude) - "I'm Not There"
Samantha Morton (Debbie Curtis) - "Control"
Saoirse Ronan (Briony Tallis - aged 13) - "Atonement"
Tilda Swinton (Karen Crowder) - "Michael Clayton"
Vanessa Redgrave (Older Briony) - "Atonement"
Alt. Catherine Keener (Jan Burres) - "Into the Wild"

I'm probably completely off, but whatever.

My predictions:


FILM

"Atonement"
"Juno
"The Lives of Others"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

DIRECTOR

"Atonement"
"Eastern Promises"
"The Lives of Others"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY


"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Eastern Promises"
"Juno"
"The Lives of Others"
"Ratatouille"

MAKE UP & HAIR

"Atonement"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"Hairspray"
"Lust, Caution"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"


SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Golden Compass"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
"Transformers"


SOUND

"300"

"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"


EDITING

"American Gangster
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

COSTUME DESIGN


"Atonement"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"Hairspray"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"


PRODUCTION DESIGN

"Atonement"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"The Golden Compass"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"


CINEMATOGRAPHY


"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Lust, Caution"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"


ANIMATED FILM

"Beowulf"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"


MUSIC

"Atonement"
"Control"
"Once"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"

LEADING ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis (Daniel Plainview) - "There Will Be Blood"
Denzel Washington (Frank Lucas) - "American Gangster"
James McAvoy (Robbie Turner) - "Atonement"
Sam Riley (Ian Curtis) - "Control"
Ulrich Muhe (Hauptmann Gerd Wiesler) - "The Lives of Others"

LEADING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett (Queen Elizabeth I) - "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Ellen Page (Juno MacGuff) - "Juno"
Julie Christie (Fiona Andersson) - "Away From Her"
Keira Knightley (Cecilia Tallis) - "Atonement"
Marion Cotillard (Edith Piaf) - "La Vie en Rose"

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck (Robert Ford) - "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem (Anton Chigurh) - "No Country for Old Men"
Paul Dano (Eli Sunday/Paul Sunday) - "There Will Be Blood"
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Gust Avrakotos) - "Charlie Wilson's War"
Tom Wilkinson (Arthur Edens) - "Michael Clayton"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett (Jude) - "I'm Not There"
Romola Garai (Briony Tallis - aged 18) - "Atonement"
Saoirse Ronan (Briony Tallis - aged 13) - "Atonement"
Tilda Swinton (Karen Crowder) - "Michael Clayton"
Samantha Morton (Debbie Curtis) - "Control"

Also, shortlist tally:

Atonement - 17 (4 supporting actresses, LOL)
No Country - 13
There Will Be Blood - 13
American Gangster - 13
Lust, Caution - 11 (counting foreign film nom)
Bourne Ultimatum - 11
Control - 10
Eastern Promises - 9
Sweeney Todd - 9
Into the Wild - 9
3:10 to Yuma - 9
Lives of Others - 9 (counting foreign film nom)
Kite Runner - 9 (counting foreign film nom)
Hairspray - 8
Michael Clayton - 8
Diving Bell - 7 (counting foreign film nom)
Charlie Wilson's War - 7
Juno - 6

Predictions...

FILM
Atonement

DIRECTOR
Atonement

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Atonement

MAKE UP & HAIR
Atonement

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Atonement

SOUND
Atonement

EDITING
Atonement

COSTUME DESIGN
Atonement

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Atonement

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Atonement

ANIMATED FILM
Atonement

MUSIC
Atonement

LEADING ACTOR
Atonement

LEADING ACTRESS
Atonement

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Atonement

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Atonement

No Clooney, really? They nominated him twice in S. Actor in 2005, for both Syriana AND his GFAGL performance. They obviously love the guy.

Otherwise though, pretty strong predictions.

You do realize every time you bring up Dreamgirls, it only hurts your case?

They did. And being british they understood the movie unlike many americans...

Sweeney Todd is doomed at this point

but if you look at the reviews the movie got in the UK, the many nominations hardly can be a surprise to you, especially since you can make a case for every technical category

Sort of strange snub for The Savages. You'd think it'd be a lock for longlists for Original Screenplay and Actress (Laura Linney), since they've been both considered as legitimate possibilities for Oscar nods. Also, I would've expected an Actor nod for PSH, and an overall nom for the film.
I think, unfortunately, we can rule it out as a contender for any Oscar nods (many though Originial Screenplay, possible Actress), as it has stayed way too much under the radar, despite better reviews than most of the contenders.

Hmm, I just don't feel Clayton, though you're right and he might get in over Washington.

Otherwise, I feel that they will honor Riley because they obviously liked Control and it got quite good reviews in UK and they really really loved The Lives of Others there too. DDL is a lock and McAvoy is in Atonement, so d'uh. So I'm certain about these four. Then it's either Washington or Clooney.

Possibly, though that The Savages will appear on next year's list. It all depends on release dates in UK. See how Gone Baby Gone ain't anywhere to be found there either?

But what really surprises me is the lack of any listing for Zodiac!!

puts american gangster right back in the hunt

Atonement made every categories 'cept Sup. Actor and Animated Film, woot! 17 mentions overall. Not bad. Though I have to agree that as much as I like Brenda Blethyn and as much as I liked her in her minute or two of screentime, she didn't do anything special here. Now the 3 Brionys... I'm rooting for all of them.