With TWBB gaining so much momentum right now, it's sure to take a lot of BP votes if it's nominated. These votes will definitely becoming from the No Country pool. So...with TWBB draining out of No Country, and both of them being very dark and disturbing movies with a limited (to what number, we don't know) voter-base, does this open up a Juno win?

I think it's seeming more likely by the day, as TWBB and Juno are both gaining steam, FAST. Juno is the mainstream but quirky, harmless and appealing comedy of the year (with perfect timing and distriution by Fox Searchlight), but nothing too memorable in the grand scheme of things...but I think it just might manage the first comedy win since Annie Hall. Really upsetting considering I don't Juno is the best comedy of this year, let alone the best of the last third of a century. What a slap in the face to the great comedy screenwriters of the last few generations as well as to this years best pictures.

Anyways, this thread is meant to be more about talk of a possible situation than a rant about Juno (which will surely happen if it wins), so discuss away.

I think it's too early to say anything, to be honest. We don't even know if There Will Be Blood (or, heck, even Juno) will be nominated yet.

Sorry...I should have credited you. That's why I said "theory to become reality" as it's becoming more and more likely. Not "I have a theory"

It could certainly happen. The Departed virtually had no serious-film competition as soon as Dreamgirls got snubbed, and people thought Little Miss Sunshine had a shot at beating it. If Dreamgirls was in the race, and the serious crowd split between the two, I think LMS would've won.

This could happen to Juno.

The reason I really think it's possible is...No Country for Old Men has been too strong a frontrunner for too long. It isn't Lord of the Rings, it's not like everybody's rooting for it, but it's been a frontrunner since the beginning of November, and that's gonna hurt it in some way.

loyal covered it, if it ends up with 3 noms and no director, it's a longshot. What it needs is either Reitman to pull out a nomination, or to get Editing, Best Supporting Actress, or Best Supporting Actor noms. All of those would be miracle-ish but last year we were considering LMS coming away with Director and Editing after the Guilds domination, and it didn't. What Juno really needed was a couple Original Songs. They dropped the ball there!

Into the Wild has the blaze your own way message bit, the actor turned director, and the nominations... but yeah Lecter took it down pretty hard last week, it's really in tough with low box-office and no wins anywhere really.

Atonement might make a comeback, I don't know. It would have lots of nominations, and it's certainly the kind of safe film the academy wouldn't mind awarding. Plus it does have some support on critics lists and MC.

For now though, I say No Country wins. I honestly think Blood could miss a nomination at this point, and all of this would be moot. Is No Country a lock? In no way shape or form. But it's the strongest player.

In any case... I think No Country is weaker than The Departed at this point. Martin Scorsese destroys the Coens in the due department, it had awesome box-office and the non-critical vote, it was a star friendly cast, and the film itself while violent was clearly Oscar awardable.

No Country would be the most daring choice in quite a while.

those are all good points. The only reason No Country seems like such a likely winner is because honestly, every damn critic has it on their list, every damn critics association gives it the win and the few that don't at least nominate it, etc... it's getting a ton of critical support, so it's by far the most logical choice for a win at the moment.

but TWBB and Juno have something it doesn't: momentum.

I don't think No Country for Old Men has a thing to worry about. For a second.

A few years ago, I don't think this would have come into play, but honestly, with how the Academy has switched it up lately (Crash winning, LMS presumably coming close to a win), I really wouldn't be shocked if NCFOM and TWBB cancelled each other out and something lighter and less acclaimed took it.

I'd say No Country is stronger. Not because it has more going for it itself than The Departed, but because the competition is less strong. Little Miss Sunshine was quite strong in the race as well last year, was a box-office hit of its own and all and had a big cast. Babel was the "important" movie.

This year, there's no important flick, no film that really poses a thread, not after the SAG noms, anyway. NCFOM is on its best way to a $50+ million total and it will end up with more than Crash grossed, so it won't even be the lowest-grossing BP winner in a while.

I wouldn't say competition's weaker this year at all. All of the BP nominees are gonna have 85%+ RT ratings, whereas last year one of them [Babel] was below 80% and the supposed frontrunner [Dreamgirls] also had a below-80% RT, yet people still thought it could win until the nominations were announced. This year, American Gangster's 79% RT seems to be keeping it out of the race, since every single other thing went well for it...as far as quality and strength of competition goes, 2007 is quite stronger than 2006.

Much stronger, but I keep wondering about some kind of bottleneck of pure distilled artiness. Remember when 1999 was such a breakthrough year, and we ended up getting The Cider House Rules and The Green Mile?

If vote splitting occurs, Atonement will take the big prize. In fact, if any film besides No Country is to win, it will be Atonement. There Will Be Blood could pose a threat but the fact that a nomination is still shaky prevents from declaring it a 3 way race. I will believe Blood's chances only after nomination day if it receives wide support.

If Atonement beats No Country and There Will Be Blood, it'll get beaten on for decades. It won't have its own identity - It'll be forever the film that beat No Country and Blood. But that would be damn good for it's longevity, otherwise it's doomed to be remembered as "Oh, ANOTHER Keira Knightley period piece? What else did she do?" At least it'd be infamous this way. To be remembered in outrage is better than to be not remembered at all.

Heh, it's true. How Green Was My Valley will live forever in memory by being the movie that beat Citizen Kane. If you're going to steal an Oscar, steal from the best.

Weaker in terms of winning awards considering NCFOM is sweeping everything.

I fail to see the similarity between There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men.

The only thing obviously similar is that they are both "man movies." That is, there are hardly any female characters in the films.

These films reflect similar themes, but the "feel" of the films are so different; it is entirely possible for someone to see brilliance in one, and not the other.

How did two epics - Master and Commander and LOTR: ROTK - both get nominated in the same year? Let's not simplify things so much, as to say the Academy won't consider nominating two "dark" films.

I'm still not buying it

I mean, it's one thing for a vote split to happen if Leonardo DiCaprio is nominated in the same category twice. But, No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood are two completely different statements.

Then again, I think it's clear, especially in these last few years, that no one understands how the Oscar voters...vote. Something like this - and then awarding "Michael Clayton" BP - is totally up their ally now.

nvm, I've thought about it a little more.

Mathematically, we assume that all voters are rational and pick what they thought was the "best" movie. There are 1000 voters.

If: 250 like There Will Be Blood, 250 like No Country for Old Men, 300 like Juno, 100 like Atonement, 100 like Michael Clayton...
Then: Juno wins...
However: The omnipotent, all-knowing, 100% right Niño Jesús has decided that No Country for Old Men is the best movie of the year.
Therefore, AMPAS voters are not rational, or they simply do not see all five nominees.

Thus, we cannot, for certain, claim that Crash was the "best" movie of the year, and Oscar ceremonies are corrupt events.

(yes, this is a total joke, and i realize it is not funny)