Pretty much so

And with PGA and DGA announced, Finding Neverland's lock status was reassured. However, I am still absolutely certain that The Aviator will edge out the others.

With MDB likely to lose to the The Aviator in Best Picture and Director, Clint Eastwood might sneak in and steal a win in best actor from Jamie Foxx. Look for Eastwood support to begin building from the SAG nominations.

Hmm...I thought one of the four would end up missing out, but it doesn't really look like that's gonna happen at this point.

But the last spot is still up for grabs

Finding Neverland and Sideways cant win.

I'll say Aviator.

Aviator is the most overated movie of the year for me, and if it wins best pic instead of some other incredible movies that would be a complete travesty. The academy already overlooked Mystic River because of ROTK I dont see them doing it again with Million $Baby, not for a movie like Aviator. I'd be fine with Caprio winning best actor he was fantastic, but the movie was very long and drawn out with barely any emotion to it, it sure as hell doesnt deserve to be best picture, its just yet another oscar bait.

I sort of have to agree. Unlike you, I thought the movie was very good. But like Finding Neverland, I didn't feel it was Best Picture worthy. Sideways is the only movie I've seen so far that I felt should be nominated that probably will be nominated (since Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Garden State and Closer essentially have no shot). I'm hopefully seeing Million Dollar Baby tomorrow, though.

Don't give up on Eternal Sunshine too early

Ok, I officially will be happy for Sideways many wins now, fantastic movie.

Anyone still thinks The Aviator won't win this one?

Sorry, Lecter I have given up on it.

[-( I'm still not convinced it will.

Leaning towads Sideways or Million Dollar Baby?

I don't know. For the first time in years, I really have no idea.

But I don't think The Aviator is even close to being a lock to win.

Million Dollar Baby will win. They MAY throw Scorcese a bone, and give him a pity award for Best Director.

Have you actually seen both movies?

I admit that considering all the acclaim that Sideways has, I would normally say that it has just as many chances as The Aviator to win. HOWEVER, if you think of the kind of movie that Sideways is, a quirky, moderately-successful (I know it is very successful for what it is, but I mean overall) indie comedy starring mostly unknown actors, I think it has no chance to win Best Picture.

Million Dollar Baby on the other hand...I have yet so see it winning Best Picture at any major awards.

Personally, I am inclinded to say that Scorcese will lose Best Director once again, but I am certain that The Aviator will win Best Picture.

I don't have to see either movie. The academy doesn't think like I do, so my opinion would not matter.

What about playing down some Clint Eastwood biases?

Why do you think that Scorcese's direction of The Aviator is inferior to Eastwood's direction of MDB?

One could argue Marty had the tougher task based on the scope of The Aviator and coming off the defeat of Gangs of NY, another large scope movie.

But you could counteract by saying Marty has more experience than Clint, so the fact that Clint directed Mystic River and Million Dollar Baby back to back, proves he deserves the gold (not to mention the mental anguish of getting squashed by ROTK, much like GONY)

I'm not showing Eastwood bias. If I was about that, wouldn't I have picked him to win last year?

I don't exactly think his direction is inferior, but the academy doesn't always award based on what's the best anyway. Since you asked, here's my take.

Things going for Eastwood

#1, Eastwood finished filming that movie 3 days ahead of schedule. You didn't hear Leo rave about Scorcese like Hillary raved about Clint, did ya? Clint did win the GG award for his directing, and Scorsese didn't. History tells me Eastwood is better at directing than Marty. Clint was robbed last year, and if it had been any other year than one that was predetermined 2 years earler, he would have won. Clint not only directed MDB, but produced, acted in, and scored it.

Things going for Scorcese

He's never won, and has been nominated enough times that it's "his turn"

With the fickle academy, that's all it takes to get a win, even if it's not desrving, like Ron Howard for A Beautiful Mind.

Elaborate, please.

I'll have to elaborate tomorrow, I'm afraid, as it's midnight here, and I have to get some much needed sleep.

I think Eastwood is a better director than Scorsese. Although I think it is funny that you, Maverickk, can overlook all the things in Scorsese's favor. Unlike Gangs of New York, the performances, cinematography, art direction, dialog, story and everything is in check. The Aviator is a very good film.

I think Million Dollar Baby is a better picture than The Aviator.

I'm not convinced that every single directors award needs to be defined by the picture's scope. Some like Cameron and Jackson deserved their awards for taking a project to the next level, but that doesn't exclude smaller films which deal in sublty are less deftly directed.

I do not think Eastwood deserved the award last year or was "robbed" (maybe Peter Weir or Coppola after Jackson). You all know I'm not the biggest Mystic River booster.

Raging Bull>>>>>>>>Anything Eastwood has done.