GG are a joke

Bonham-Carter is a longshot, I think. If Marion Cotillard doesn't win in that category, it will be Ellen Page, with Amy Adams being the outside shot.

I do think Depp is on his way to a win (since he doesn't have to compete with Day-Lewis), though, and Picture and Director depend upon how much buzz the movie gets going between now and then. For Burton to win over the Coen Brothers, it's going to take a whole hell of a lot of buzz.

i love the Charlie Wilson's War love. I'm very excited about the film and can't wait to see it.

these didn't change things as much as I thought they would, even if they were detrimental to outside hopefuls like Into the Wild and Gone Baby Gone.

anyways, three films emerge as very strong contenders after the Globe noms...Diving Bell [Best Director nom!], Charlie Wilson's War [Comedy/Musical and all three acting noms], and Eastern Promises [Best Drama/Actor nom]:

Post Globe Predictions
1. No Country for Old Men [0]
2. Atonement [0]
3. There Will Be Blood [+1]
4. Sweeney Todd [-1]
5. Juno [0]

6. Michael Clayton [+1]
7. American Gangster [-1]
8. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly [N/A]
9. Charlie Wilson's War [N/A]
10. Eastern Promises [N/A]

11. Into the Wild [-3]
12. Gone Baby Gone [-2]
13. The Assassination of Jesse James [-4]
14. Ratatouille [-1]
15. The Kite Runner [N/A]

my predictions:

Best Drama
Atonement

Best Comedy/Musical
Sweeney Todd

Best Director
Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men

Best Actor in a Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood

Best Actress in a Drama
Julie Christie - Away From Her

Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd

Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical
Ellen Page - Juno

Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There

Best Screenplay
Juno

Best Foreign Film
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Score
There Will Be Blood

Best Animated Film
Ratatouille

Best Song
"Walk Hard" - Walk Hard

One snub I noticed...

No Knocked Up anywhere.

I'm really glad they nominated Julia, to be honest. Charlie Wilson's War is still one of my most anticipated and I think she looks great in it.

Lack of Knocked Up isn't surprising. Stoner comedies don't travel well overseas. I guess Amsterdam is underrepped at the HFPA

Good movies are good movies, no matter Oscar bait or not.

The whole musical/comedy category is way too crowded.

And nonsensical, as if a musical couldn't also be serious. There have been plenty of dramatic musicals recently.

If you want to talk nonsensical, then think about them categorising films like Ma Vie En Rose, Ray or Walk the Line as musicals...

Maybe Once just... ISN'T good...

Walk Hard!!

100% 9/9 7.2 avg on Rotten Tomatoes. A lot of reviews are just barely positive, but it's as good a start as this film could hope for. I hope the grade finishes above 70% and it wins Best Song or something.

you know, between this and the SAGs and its terrific box office, I think people are really underestimating American Gangster. Sure, it's not as good as the films it's up against, but did that stop Crash, Babel, Chocolat, or Ray from getting in in the past?

I actually think that American Gangster is better than the films you mentioned. The problem is that it faces a really heavy deal of competition for the nomination this year, and I think it falls more into the "liked, not loved" category.It also hurts that the movie had to live up to The Departed being a gangster flick just one year after that one won Picture, even though the two movies are hardly alike.

I think The Departed comparisons are the nail in the coffin really, it wasn't liked well enough to get a BP nom (especially in a year where we are seeing some really good films with actual chances at Best Picture) can be almost averaged out by the box office success. Then even though they are not alike The Departed comes in and knocks this film off.

Semi-final predictions:

Best Director

Joel & Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men
Alt. Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd

Best Motion Picture - Drama

No Country for Old Men
Alt. Atonement

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Julie Christie – Away From Her
Alt. Keira Knightley – Atonement

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Alt. George Clooney – Michael Clayton

Best Motion Picture - Musical Or Comedy

Sweeney Todd
Alt. Juno

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

Ellen Page – Juno
Alt. Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical Or Comedy

Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Alt. Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl

Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Alt. Casey Affleck -Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Alt. Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There

Best Screenplay

Diablo Cody - Juno
Alt. Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men

Best Foreign Language Film

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alt. The Kite Runner

Best Score

Atonement
Alt. Into the Wild

Best Song

Into The Wild
Alt. Enchanted

Best Animated Feature Film

Ratatouille
Alt. The Simpsons Movie

Tally:
No Country for Old Men - 3
Juno - 2
Sweeney Todd - 2
Atonement - 1
Away from Her - 1
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 1
Gone Baby Gone - 1
Into the Wild - 1
Ratatouille - 1
There Will Be Blood - 1

I still think Juno can sweep though.

I think Juno vs. Sweeney Todd will be a very interesting race indeed. Juno seems like a stronger candidate for a BP win, but even last year LMS landed a BP nom and almost won while Dreamgirls was snubbed entirely, yet Dreamgirls won Comedy/Musical, probably for being a Musical.

I think it'll probably go to Sweeney Todd for being a musical, but it really could go to either one.

I'm going with some risky predictions:

Best Director
Joel & Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men

Best Motion Picture - Drama
Atonement

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Julie Christie – Away From Her

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood

Best Motion Picture - Musical Or Comedy
Juno

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Amy Adams - Enchanted

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical Or Comedy
Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl

Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone

Best Screenplay
Diablo Cody - Juno

Best Foreign Language Film
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Score
Atonement

Best Song
Into The Wild

Best Animated Feature Film
Ratatouille



Atonement - 2
No Country For Old Men - 2
Juno - 2
There Will Be Blood - 1
Away From Her - 1
Lars and the Real Girl - 1
Enchanted - 1
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 1
Gone Baby Gone - 1
Into the Wild - 1
Ratatouille - 1

This sounds about right and with enough surprises in the mix. It'd be interesting if Adams won and got snubbed like so many GG winners in that category.

I don't think Juno would upset Best Comedy/Musical and lose Best Actress. If it's got enough support to win Best Comedy/Musical, Page would be a shoe-in.

I think if anyone is to upset Johnny Depp here, it'll be Ryan Gosling. If that happens, he'll be among my first five for the Best Actor Oscar nom.

I thought I'd have to wait for DVD, but my art house theater got it for next weekend. Super-psyched.

Still, having not seen it I've decided to replace him with Hirsch in my predictions. While Hirsch would be the second youngest nominee ever (Behind some 10-year-old from nearly 80 years ago), the role is otherwise completely baity. Real life person, extreme physical transformation, pretty much in the entire movie, dies...