Early predictions (PGA and DGA):

PGA

There Will Be Blood
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
American Gangster (well, it's been huge)
Atonement

I could see American Gangster be replaced with Hairspray, though.


DGA

PT Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)
Joe Wright (Atonement)
David Cronenberg (Eastern Promises) - this is a rather wild guess

PGA (I see Atonement missing out here, even though I have it up for BP right now):
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Juno
Sweeney Todd
Michael Clayton

DGA:
Coens - NCFOM
PT Anderson - TWBB
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Joe Wright - Atonement
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and The Butterfly

WGA (Orig):
Juno
The Savages
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
Eastern Promises

WGA (Adapt):
NCFOM
TWBB
Sweeney Todd
Atonement
Gone Baby Gone

SAG:
NCFOM
Sweeney Todd
Gone Baby Gone
Juno
Atonement

Does the WGA still vote and everything this year?

If say, the WGA does vote, would they vote for critically acclaimed films that failed to break bank or were box-office disappointments? Heh.

Or would the gazillion past and present Simpsons writers who are all WGA members unanimously vote The Simpsons for Adapted Screenplay?

I guess I'll bump this instead of starting an anticipation thread for SAG, which announces THIS THURSDAY.

My predictions:

Best Ensemble
Atonement
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Alt: Gone Baby Gone

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
James McAvoy, Atonement
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Alt: Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightly, Atonement
Ellen Page, Juno
Alt: Amy Adams, Enchanted

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Alt: John Travolta, Hairspray

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Alt: Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

SAG Predictons:

Best Ensemble
American Gangster
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
alt: Hairspray

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Denzel Washington, American Gangster
alt: Viggo Mortenson, Eastern Promises

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Helena Bonham-Carter, Sweeney Todd
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
alt: Amy Adams, Enchanted

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Alt: Russell Crowe, American Gangster

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Alt: Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

So...it seems like Atonement could get an ensemble nod without a single individual acting one?

Morton AND Mann over the current S. Actress frontrunner?

I personally can't see Atonement missing on a supporting actress nod, so I think it has that one, at the very least.

Peace,
Mike

Best Actress
Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Ellen Page
Angelina Jolie
Laura Linney

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis
George Clooney
Johnny Depp
Emile Hirsch (or James McAvoy...but one of the two)
Viggo Mortensen
Alt: Frank Langella


Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett
Amy Ryan
Saoirse Ronan
Vanessa Redgrave
Tilda Swinton
Alt: Catherine Keener
(would love it if Morton made it, though!)

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem
Tom Wilkison
Hal Holbrook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Alt: Max von Sydow

Ensemble
No Country for Old Men
Atonement
Juno
Into the Wild
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Alt: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly or Hairspray

Now if American Gangster gets either a PGA or a DGA nom, it'll be a very major push for it. And I'm not entirely convinced that this won't happen....

My changed DGA Predictions:


PT Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Tony Guilroy (Michael Clayton)
Joe Wright (Atonement)
Ridley Scott (American Gangster)

Joe Wright
Joel and Ethan Coen
Julian Schnabel
PT Anderson
Tim Burton

I'm very weary of Joe Wright.

I would say:

Atonement (Joe Wright)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Julian Schnabel)
Into the Wild (Sean Penn)
Michael Clayton (Tony Gilroy)
No Country for Old Men (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)

They've moved more and more towards trying to predict Best Picture the last three years (See: Their LMS nomination last year), so I'm just duplicating my BP predictions at the moment.

I'm sure that Penn and Affleck will get snubbed by the DGA. Directors probably hate it when actors take on directing gigs and steal the spotlight. If they are gonna miss out anywhere, this would be the place, no?

I wouldn't be surprised to see Reitman show up here, considering Jonathan Daly and Valerie Faris did, and the fact that they tend to forecast the BP lineup more than BD.

Coens
Reitman
Gilroy
Penn
Anderson

totally forgot about Penn. I think he has a great shot of making it in.

Ethan and Joel Coen
PT Anderson
Sean Penn
Julian Schnabel
Joe Wright

One film is going to lose alot of ground with the DGA/PGA and I'm betting it's Sweeney and not Atonement. Sweeney has a better shot at DGA than PGA I think but oh well, I'll stick with these predix.

Interesting reading.


Predictions:

Joe Wright (Atonement)
Sidney Lumet (Before the Devil Knows that You're Dead) - the WTF choice, sort of
Coens (No Country for Old Men)
Ridley Scott (American Gangster)
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)

I'm still going with Reitman. Looking at history, JD/VF for Little Miss Sunshine got one, so did Payne for Sideways, so did Coppola for LiT, so did Brooks for As Good As It Gets. DGA is a stronger BP indicator than it is BD, and I think Juno is getting in for BP, so I'm keeping him.

The Coens
Reitman
Gilroy
Wright
Penn

Kind of a gay line-up, but whatever. PTA and Blood can sneak in like Iwo Jima maybe and knock out Atonement or something, if it gets in.

DGA also nominated Being John Malkovich, Almost Famous, Jerry Maguire, The Truman Show.
Granted those were before the wild BP matching streak(below), but they along with LMS/Sideways/LiT since show they have no problem with comedies. Maybe it's because they realize it's a black art to direct a comedy, harder than it looks.

Never realized the full extent of the streak, the DGA is a 24/25 BP match since 02. The only miss is Clint's guild disappearance last year, which really seemed like more of a case of lack of screeners for the people voting, a mistake fixed by the time Oscar ballots came out. If Reitman misses here, I'm gonna have to assume Juno's not getting nominated.

Final predictions:

Ethan and Joel Coen
P.T. Anderson
Joe Wright
Sean Penn
Tony Guilroy

Current PGA predictions:

American Gangster
Atonement
Juno
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Interesting DGA factoid: Of the 26 lone Picture nominees from the last 20 years, 18 were still nominated by the DGA only to get snubbed in Direction by Oscar. Great news for Gilroy (Michael Clayton) and possibly Reitman (Juno) there. It also shouldn't be forgotten that Reitman's dad is a fellow director (I think he directed something involving ghosts?), which might help his visibility.

With that in mind, my final predictions:

American Gangster (Scott)
Into the Wild (Penn)
Juno (Reitman)
Michael Clayton (Gilroy)
No Country for Old Men (Coens)
Potential spoilers (In order of likeliness): 3:10 to Yuma (Mangold), Atonement (Wright), There Will Be Blood (Anderson) The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Schnabel)

Yeah, very lame, but the last three years they've been that way, and I doubt they'll change now (Unless we have a SAG repeat, hence the 3:10 as first alternate prediction).

I think Blood's release and peak (now) is far too late for DGA.

Scott
Lumet
Coens
Penn
Gilroy

1st Alt: Wright
2nd Alt: Reitman

Mine:

Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Joe Wright, Atonement
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men

How very unbiased, guys...


Wright has a much bigger shot than either Burton/Lumet/Penn/Girloy. I'd say he's only behind PTA and the Coens. Same thing for Atonement in Editing and Cinematography (as we saw already).