I know it's not out yet but I saw it and freaking loved every second of it. The script was fantastic.

Screenplay, yes, Picture...no. I think it's too outside the system to actually win (Crash had about third of Hollywood cast in it to balance the indieness), in addition to the fact that, y'know, it's a comedy.

Not in. I don't think it's got much of a shot at Picture, though I do think it will take Original Screenplay.

If I were to create a club on Juno, it would be the "Juno will definitely NOT win Best Picture Club". I don't see it winning in any scenario, and I'm really not sure about it's chances of even being nominated for Best Picture. This might be a club better suited for creation after nominations announced, in my opinion.

Original Screenplay however is definitely something Juno could win, and I am fully behind it on that respect.

Peace,
Mike

Ahh, somebody had to do it.

It's not impossible, but after LMS I'm not getting my hopes up.

It's more likely to win an MTV Best Picture thing than an Oscar.

as long as it doesnt suck like LMS i think it has a chance

I could care less about it winning best picture. I just want Diablo Cody to win really really badly.

nope

Yeah, what Mike said, basically. I agree.

See, Sideways and Lost in Translation had better reviews than Juno. More raving ones, anyway. And they never even got close to winning. Screenplay? Yes, likely, though not a lock. I still think Ratatouille or Before the Devil Knows You're Dead have a chance to upset it. Picture? Simply no way. Even its chances as a nominee are rather 50/50.

The thing that will hold it back is that it's very unlikely to get the BD nomination. Although LMS showed you could go pretty far without a BD nom, it'll still be an uphill battle, and unlike last year, numerous films are in contention for 8+ noms, which makes a film without BD that much harder to win.

I'd hardly go so far as to say Brad Bird has a better shot (As awesome as it would be), but yeah, Reitman has next to no shot.

If Juno got a Sideways reception, Reitman could get in like Payne. The reviews are great but they're not great, so yeah, it's not happening.

I'm actually not that confident in a Juno nomination anymore. No Country, Atonement, Blood, Sweeney Todd. Not many slots left if those all get in. American Gangster/Charlie/The Kite Runner(fuck)/Hairspray/Into the Wild are all looming.

it's probably gonna finish around 90% on RT, which is great. It'll probably have a great run at the box office, as from what I've heard, audiences absolutely love it. This really is this year's Little Miss Sunshine. It will win Original Screenplay, but unless the reviews really pick up and send it to around 95%, BP would be very hard to accomplish, and would only be the result of being the only happy film nominated. it should get a nom, though.

Problem for Juno is that there are almost no enthusiastic reviews out there. Everybody seems to like it, not love it. I think it won't even be nominated for BP. Ellen Page will get a nod and the screenplay probably

Eh. They're not exactly wrong, and twelve minutes in I could have told you some people were going to react that exact way, but ultimately they're kinda lame. If you like it, it wont be because of pop-culture references and AIM-slang, it'll be because it's really quite funny and the character of Juno is impossibly charming. If the point is it won't win best picture, though, then yeah, yr right.

hmm, I thought it had a chance at BP earlier. Its RT stands at about 91%, and won't go up much further. In my opinion, it would've needed over a 95% rating to have a strong chance at a win. LMS was at 92%, had fantastic box office, yet only got a nom. With all the raved contenders this year, coming out with a win would require some stand-out reviews, but its reviews are really in the middle of the high-class pack, as it stands with a 91% 7.8 avg [not close to NCFOM's 96% 8.5 but well ahead of AG's 77% 6.9].

BJ joins.

with Ebert backing it, it's now officially impossible to rule out for a win. I don't think it'll win, but it certainly could.

I don't think Ebert's as powerful now that he's not on TV anymore, but then again, he got Crash to a win against far-and-away favorite Brokeback Mountain, so anything is possible.

This club has a better chance at success than Loyal's, I'll give ya that.

I think everyone knows he's gone loony. I mean, Great Debaters, The Kite Runner, La Vie en Rose, & Across The Universe in his top 10? Sure, most critics have a "lesser" film or two that they're particularly partial to on their list....but 4 of them?
4 stars to The Golden Compass? And Rendition in his runners ups?
How the hell did this man ever have influence?

I think the whole "Ebert is a loony" argument is almost entirely internet based. If you tried telling just about any Academy member that Ebert was nuts they'd look at you like YOU were nuts.

Ebert is far and away the most respected film critic around. Even if you completely disagree with his taste, he writes so well that you completely understand why he gave films the grades he gave them. Honestly, read his Great Debaters review and tell me that he didn't make a great argument in its favor. He writes influentially, and his writing is fun to read. For these reasons, he is the biggest critic name around the world as far as I'm concerned. It doesn't matter what his taste is [well, to a certain extent] - people listen to him, and that's what critics are all about.

But the question is, how much do they listen to him now compared to say, two years ago? I mean, wasn't he assigned to bed rest most of the year? Did he even see most of the movies in 2007? Do AMPAS member realize this?