Ed Wood doesn't know what he's talking about, though.

Beetlejuice takes issue with that as well.

Oh he very much does.

Edward Scissorhands remains my absolute favourite film of all time.

Beetlejuice, Mars Attacks, Pee Wee, Batman, Batman Returns Ed Wood, Nightmare Before Christmas and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory would all be in my top 100, and I love everything else the guy's put his hand to (with the obvious exception of Planet of the Apes and The Corpse Bride).

If he won an Oscar, I'd probably cream my pants.

I'm looking forward to Sweeney Todd. I'm not that big on Burton (I like his movies, but the only one I've really loved is Big Fish), but it looks like an impressive movie.

How trippy would it be, by the way, if both Hairspray and Sweeney Todd managed to get themselves Best Picture noms?

Two musicals!

Hah. I would enjoy that.

That would be cool. Even though Hairspray has fallen off my yearly top ten list, I'd still love to see it up there. It's just such an un-Oscar kind of pick. After all, it is a remake of a John Waters movie.

Hairspray is currently my "dark horse" choice for a nomination, actually.

I mean, it got really impressive reviews and box office, and could certainly count as the "mainstream favorite" pick that the Oscars often seem to have.

If Charlie Wilson's War ends up being less Oscar-y than expected (as in, more in the vein of Catch Me If You Can) and some of the other contenders don't quite make it, I think it could be in.

Of course, we have to wait and see what the early things are saying. I think it has a very good shot at being on NBR's Top 10, and it's almost a lock for a Best Musical/Comedy nod at the Globes.

I think it's going to need to go as far as a win at the Golden Globes and get some nicer than expected precursor support to get nominated. The Globe win looks iffy, especially with the steam it seems Sweeney Todd has been gaining.

Just got back from the Diving Bell.

Director and Cinematography more than deserve noms...and possibly wins.

However, it is a better film than it is an enjoyable film. It's hard to watch at some points. It'll leave you exhausted. Every time a great, beautiful scene comes up, it is interrupted, which, although necessary in making this a great film, doesn't exactly leave a happy audience/academy.

Hairspray has a shot for sure, I think I'd put it right there with Charlie and AG as films knocking on the door. Though it'd be a guaranteed BP without BD if it happened. Adam Shankman and the academy... not a potent mix.

My top 13-ish at the moment:

1. No Country for Old Men (not sure about it winning, but for noms it's the closest thing to a lock)
2. Atonement
3. Sweeney Todd
4. There Will Be Blood

5. Juno

6. Charlie Wilson's War
7. American Gangster
8. Hairspray

9. The Kite Runner
10. Into the Wild

11. Zodiac
12. Once
13. Ratatouille

Oh and more Juno reviews are starting to come in btw. It's 96% with 24 fresh 1 rotten, 8.2/10.

I have the same top 5 as you for the moment Shack. Though I could really see if Charlie Wilson's War is good enough getting in there.

Shack, you are rankings are good, with two exceptions:

-Replace Charlie Wilson with Into the Wild. The latter could really get in there. Charlie Wilson is a dead duck, except for Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

-Don't forget Michael Clayton! It's doesn't deserve a BP nomination, but I wouldn't bet against it at the moment.

CWW is an iffy contender, but how on earth is it a dead duck? While not raving, the reviews by HR and Variety are positive and with such a director and star pedigree it doesn't need the raves to get in.

Michael Clayton is too...uhh..simple to get a BP nom. Even Into the Wild, American Gangster and Eastern Promises are better bets that. Michael Clayton is a film the Globes might embrace, but the Oscars? Unlikely, save for an acting nom or two.

Because of the hype and early frontrunner nonsense, CWW really did need the raves. Expectations were high. With that predigree, only being 'good' is seen as a disappointment.

As for Michael Clayton, you could have said the same thing about Capote. Or Good Night and Good Luck. It's got good buzz, solid BO, a shot at 2 or 3 acting noms. I thought it was pretty good at best, but dismiss it at your own peril.

Eh, Michael Clayton is an airport thriller. Capote and Good Night and Good Luck define "Oscar film". Heavy intellectual writing, meaty performances, true-life events, cinematography, etc. I don't relate them at all.

With that being said it'd probably be 14 or 15 depending on where Before the Devil Knows You're Dead fits.

Wait, what what what

What is an "airport thriller"?

Because, having seen Michael Clayton, it's not really a thriller at all.

Well I mean it's pretty much an airport novel on screen, felt like it could've been a Grisham book or something. Not that the movie isn't very good, but yeah, that's the way I saw it at least. Dunno about the academy.

All the stuff you mentioned also applies to Munich.

Sorry, but Capote's reviews were simply so so much better and it also had the frontrunner in Best Actor on its side.

GNGL was directed by an actor (something the Academy loves) AND dealt with an important topic. And it was in BLACK AND WHITE!

Here's what Michael Clayton has in its favor:

1. Warner Bros. It's their big gun this year. They've managed Picture nods in each of the last three years and won in two of them.

2. George Clooney. Hollywood loves him.

3. It's an actor's movie. Wilkinson is very likely to get nominated, and Clooney and Swinton have good prospects as well.

4. With none of the big Picture frontrunners being original movies, it's almost guaranteed an Original Screenplay nod, and they've got to have one of those movies in the mix.

5. Visibility won't be a problem. The movie performed well at the box office and Clooney's presence will help even further.

6. It delivered upon release and managed to build hype from there. A lot of the other contenders either fell flat or didn't really build to full potential.

It seems like one of those movies that can land a nomination in spite of having no shot in hell of winning.

300 for best screenplay.

i nominated 300 for everything

Those Walk Hard posters are BRILLIANT!!!

I love the Walk Hard FYCs.