I think that's the key. Is Once really that major? Do a vast majority of the casual moviegoing audience even know about its existence? Given its small box office take (small in comparison to the other musicals this year), I think not. Add in the fact that there's an abundance of major live-action musicals this year, and I don't think you can claim that it's a lock.

And I don't think my not seeing it really has anything to do with it. I'm just saying what I think the Globes are going to do. If I saw it, and loved it, but still thought it wouldn't get in, would that change things?

We'll just have to agree to disagree (again). I'd rather just wait until the nominees are revealed to see who's right.

Hmm.... no.

I have to say, I'm disappointed in you this year, loyal. After your love of CoM last year I thought we were on the same page, but your love for Rat. and Transformers and your dislike of Sunshine and Bourne this year has got me worried.

If that is the shortlist for Best Animated Movie that's just pathetic. Where's Persepolis, Paprika and Tekkonkinkreet? Shows again how lame the Globes are

Charlie WIlson's War going for comedy/musical will screw things up. I think enchanted is going to loose it's nod.

Right now, I'm thinking: Juno, The Savages, CWW, Sweeney Todd and Hairspay.

Yep, exactly. Unless CWW bombs with critics, Once is looking less likely now.

You've got....

Charlie Wilson's War
Enchanted
Hairspray
Juno
Knocked Up
Once
The Savages
Sweeney Todd

as the frontrunners, so three of them will be knocked out. I think Juno is the closest thing to a lock in this category, everything else could go either way. Until CWW and Todd come out it's hard to really pick, but my gut tells me...

Charlie Wilson's War
Hairspray
Juno
Knocked Up
Sweeney Todd

That should clear the way for Christie to win Best Actress Drama. GG normally ignores what studios are pushing and has their own category definitions, so I expect Blanchett to still be in supporting for I'm Not There. Even if they put Blanchett in lead, they're still going to have trouble filling up the other spots. Jolie, Knightley... Maybe Tang Wei has a chance there?

The best actress comedy/musical is going to be a helluva race with Savages and Margot now joining.

EDIT: on the second thought, HFPA loves stars, so Jolie and Knightley may actually be more likely to win. Jolie winning could propel her for an Oscar nom.

Exactly. HFPA just wants to award big names instead of superior achievement. Just look at the nominations for best actor/actress in a tv movie every year. Because the members are mostly doing interviews instead of reviewing movies they tend to go to the stars who were nice to them.

PICTURE - DRAMA
Atonement
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Charlie Wilson's War
Hairspray
Juno
Knocked Up
Sweeney Todd

DIRECTOR
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Joel + Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Mike Nichols, Charlie Wilson's War
Sean Penn, Into the Wild

ACTOR - DRAMA
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
James McAvoy, Atonement
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

ACTRESS - DRAMA
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Jodie Foster, The Brave One
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley, Atonement

ACTOR - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson's War
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages
Seth Rogen, Knocked Up
John Travolta, Hairspray

ACTRESS - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson's War

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saoirse Roran, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

ANIMATED FILM
Beowulf
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

Drama's between NCFOM, Atonement, and TWBB. Comedy/Musical's between Sweeney Todd and Juno.

I say NCFOM and Sweeney Todd at the moment. Things could change.

ehh, I don't think Sweeney's taking home the huge prize. It could pull a shocker and grab Burton his first Oscar - and that would be a very nice reward for the long-lasting creative guy - but BP would be something of a stretch, even with fantastic reviews.

I agree. as Dreamgirls beating Little Miss Sunshined showed last year, the Globes favor musicals over comedies here, meaning Juno will probably not take home this award. I think both'll get BP noms, though.

Hairapray might be a strong opponent, however.

Atonement will get GG love.

I wonder what movie that has done well by now will receive the most snubbing by the Globes?

I'd say Into the Wild.

Basically, the Best Picture Drama category is rather crowded. Here are the films can possibly see nominated there:

American Gangster
Eastern Promises (they LOVED AHOV)
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (they also really liked Match Point which was a similar "return to form")
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Man
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
Michael Clayton
The Kite Runner


Which will not make it?

I think Before the Devil Knows You're Dead won't, neither will The Kite Runner, American Gangster and Into the Wild. So...

No Country for Old Man
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
Michael Clayton
Eastern Promises

Sound like possible BP nominees there, no?

With Marion Cottilard, Ellen Page, Laura Linney, and Amy Adams all in the Comedy/Musical category, it should be easy for Knightley to show up. McAvoy will have a harder shot, but Depp being in Comedy/Musical will give slightly more room. Then the films strongest category is Supporting Actress, and Roran or Redgrave will likely show up there, giving multiple nods to the film. And then Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Score are all possible.

I'd love to see the HFPA be the first major place to recognize Helena Bonham Carter in the Best Supporting Actress category. Would be nice, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

Peace,
Mike

Not sure about that, look at who's trying to get into Best Actress (Comedy/Musical) as well:

Laura Linney (overdue actress, very solid performance)
Marion Cotillard (d'uh)
Amy Adams (pretty much a lock)
Ellen Page
Keri Russell

I think she'll be recognized at least somewhere.

Then we've also got Michelle Pfeiffer in Hairspray...I remember Ferrell got a nom for The Producers, so why not.

hmmmmmmm...I'm going with some shockers in the way (gut feelings):


PICTURE - DRAMA
Atonement
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Eastern Promises
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
alt: Into the Wild


PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Charlie Wilson's War
Hairspray
Juno
Knocked Up
Sweeney Todd
alt: Enchanted


DIRECTOR
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Joe Wright, Atonement
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
alt: David Cronenberg, Eastern Promises


ACTOR - DRAMA
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
James McAvoy, Atonement
Denzel Washington, American Gangster
alt: Gordon Pinsent, Away From Her


ACTRESS - DRAMA
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Jodie Foster, The Brave One
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley, Atonement
alt: Ashley Judd, Bug (wishful thinking, would be a nice "WTF?" reaction, and I'm blocked to see any other worthy candidates at the moment. And she was nominated for De-Lovely, c'mon! )


ACTOR - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages
Seth Rogen, Knocked Up
John Travolta, Hairspray
alt: Michael Cera, Juno


ACTRESS - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
Nicole Kidman, Margot at the Wedding
alt: Nikki Blonsky, Hairspray


SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
alt: once again, I can't really think of a 6th contender... maybe Paul Dano if the film is nominated?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
Saoirse Roran, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
alt: Leslie Mann, Knocked Up


SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Charlie Wilson's War
alt: There Will Be Blood


ANIMATED FILM
Bee Movie
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie
alt: Beowulf

So Cotillard is in Musical/Comedy? Wasn't sure.

The Great Debaters? Unless he knows something we don't.

And that's one weird looking lineup for Best Actor, C&M.

I didn't even know The Great Debaters existed

It stars Forest too by the way.

Still holding out hope for a surprise nomination for Wei Tang here.

There are so many performances that could surprise from foreign language films, in fact. 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days...Lust, Caution, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, The Violin...

Wasn't Ashley Judd supposed to be there? Hmmm...

PICTURE - DRAMA
Atonement
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Into the Wild
alt: American Gangster

PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Charlie Wilson's War
Once
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Sweeney Todd
alt: Enchanted

DIRECTOR
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Joe Wright, Atonement
Sean Penn, Into The Wild
alt: Julian Schnabel, Diving Bell and Butterfly

ACTOR - DRAMA
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Josh Brolin, No Country For Old Man
James McAvoy, Atonement
Frank Langella, Starting out in the Evening
alt: Denzel Washington, American Gangster

ACTRESS - DRAMA
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Jodie Foster, The Brave One
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightley, Atonement
alt: Charlize Theron, In The Valley Of Elah

ACTOR - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages
Don Cheadle, Talk To Me
Glen Hansard, Once
alt: Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson's War

ACTRESS - COMEDY/MUSICAL
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
Helena Bonham Carper, Sweeney Todd
alt: Nikki Blonsky, Hairspray

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Max von Sydow, Diving bell and Burretfly
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
alt: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Kelly MacDonald, No Country For Old Man
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Catherine Keener, Into The Wild
alt: Tilda Swindon, Michael Clayton

SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Lars and the Real Girl
alt: Charlie Wilson's War

ANIMATED FILM
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie
alt: Beowulf

SCORE
Beowulf
Atonement
The Kite Runner
Grace Is Gone
Ratatouille
alt: Pirates 3

SONG
Once
Into The Wild
American Gangster
Hairspray
Enchanted
alt: Stardust