Well, the title makes it pretty clear. Whatever category, what do you consider to be a solid lock at this point?

Here's what I'm thinking:


Best Picture

No lock right now

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)

Best Actress

Keira Knightley (Atonement)

Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)

Best Director

Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)

Best Animated Feature

Rataouille

Best Original Screenplay

Juno

Best Adapted Screenplay

Atonement
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Best Visual Effects

Transformers

I would agree with all of those except Keira Knightley. You're just crazy if you think she's a lock; she's the least solid of all the female contenders.

I'd also add Atonement for Score

Best Picture

Atonement
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)

Best Actress

Amy Adams (Enchanted)

Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)

Best Director

Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)

Best Animated Feature

Rataouille

Best Adapted Screenplay

Atonement
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men

Best Visual Effects

Transformers

I think Atonement is pretty close to being locked on for a Picture nod. Focus doesn't really have anything else to campaign, there's potential for it to be an overall nomination monster (and they need at least one of those), and it's supposed to be very, very good. Whether it can win remains to be seen, but it's pretty damned close to being a lock for the nomination if it's not already a lock.

I'll say Lewis, Bardem, Blanchett, Ratatouille for animated, Sicko for doc. Those are the only ones I'm 100% on. Though then again, sometimes even that doesn't cut it, like Sith's visuals snub.

Atonement is the closest to a lock in the Best Picture category but you never know what can happen. Since the overall word so far is that it's great but not amazing and with Sweeney and Wilson both in the race, it could go the way of Cold Mountain.

I've also been saying that if it falls into the 80% "good" range, Joe Wright is the closest thing to Mangold and Condon this race.

I think No Country is the closest thing to a BP lock. The reception is assured, the box-office looks solid, it has the passion, it has the techs and a Supporting Actor win already in the bag

Yeah, I think No Country is guaranteed. The Coens have been owed since Fargo, too.

Best Supporting Actress

Adrienne Shelly - Waitress

Not happening.

Lock.

You do realize that there is ZERO buzz for her at this time, right? None.

Best Picture
Atonement

Best Director
Joe Wright - Atonement
Coens - No Country for Old Men

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood

Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men

Best Original Screenplay
Juno [it's getting most of the film's buzz, along with Page]

Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement

Best Animated Feature
Ratatouille

Best Visual Effects
Transformers

Best Documentary
Sicko

that's really about it. I mean, a lot of things were left off here that are very likely, but these are things that simply won't not happen.

Watch and learn...

There are no locks

That's a foolish statement. You think there's a chance that Ratatouille is NOT a lock for a Best Animated Picture?

maybe that one. But to have movies and actors as locks whose performances and films haven't been seen in the US yet is even more foolish. What's guaranteeing that US critics dig Atonement like the british critics for example

You do realize she's DEAD, right? Not only that, but MURDERED.

The lack of other solid contenders?

There are locks out there, as simple as that. Ratatouille for Animated Transformers for the Effects, Sicko for a Documentary nom, Javier Bardem for a Best Sup. Actor nom. Seriously, is there a way to argue those?

I'm actually hesitant to call Sicko and Transformers a lock. They are the most probable nominees at this point but look at how Volver didn't get nominated last year for Foreign pic. And then how Pan's Labyrinth lost the win. Nothing is guaranteed.

Hm, but for Sicko, there's simply not much real competition out there and as for Transformers...it's a perfect nominee for them. Even Pearl Harbor got nominated there despite far worse reviews.

Scratch Blanchett from my list

Well, if Blanchett goes Lead, she's off my list as well, obviously.

Yes, I do, and her best (if not realistically only) shot at a posthumous nod is in the Original Screenplay category, not Supporting Actress.

In addition to the ones above...

No End In Sight for docs.

Sound nominations for Transformers.

Costume nominations Pirates 3.

Score for There Will Be Blood

Travolta for Hairspray (Supporting)

Adapted Screenplay for No Country For Old Men

The Pitts (Brad for Assassination, Jolie for A Mighty Heart) in their nominatable categories.