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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48677
Location: Arlington, VA
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andaroo wrote: By the way...
I think Sideways might split Best Picture this year.
The BFCA pushed me over the edge... they have awarded the eventual Best Picture for like 6 years running.
Sideways may just be too strong. And while I like and respect The Aviator. I'm pretty thrilled about that. I'm getting the same feeling. Sideways' sheer magnitude number of wins is too present to disregard it. It'd be pretty amazing if it won, considering I doubt most people knew what this movie was until it was released. Although, you could argue the same thing for Million Dollar Baby, since that was rather abruptly added to the schedule at the last minute.
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 5:02 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Million Dollar Baby needs GG Drama win to stay in the race, but I don't think the foreign press is going with it. The GoldDerby critics have a lot of connection with HFPA, and they even put Finding Neverland ahead of Million Dollar Baby in their odds. It's a given that Sideways will win GG Comedy, so it will be down to Sideways and The Aviator after GG.
Statistic is a tricky thing. While it's true that BFCA has successfully predicted the eventual oscar winner the last 5 or 6 years, it's also true that the film with the most nominations almost always win best picture. Only A Beautiful Mind was able to break that in like last 15 years. Also, GG Drama winner almost always wins Oscar as well. So some statistics are bound to be broken this year, and we can pick and choose the ones we like to support our own arguments.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 5:10 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48677
Location: Arlington, VA
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I think it's funny that in the poll, only two movies on there (The Aviator, Hotel Rwanda) seem to be likely Best Picture nominees, considering how old this thread is. Even Alexander is on there, heh.
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| Tue Jan 11, 2005 5:14 pm |
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Levy
Golfaholic
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2005 2:06 pm
Posts: 16054
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With all guilds having announced their nominees and Aviator the only movie being included in all of them, I still think this is the movie to beat. And I am almost certain that there is no way Scorsese won't be walking away with the Best Director award, coming oscar night
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| Fri Jan 14, 2005 2:17 am |
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Chris
life begins now
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:09 pm
Posts: 6480
Location: Columbus, Ohio
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Levy wrote: With all guilds having announced their nominees and Aviator the only movie being included in all of them, I still think this is the movie to beat. And I am almost certain that there is no way Scorsese won't be walking away with the Best Director award, coming oscar night Me either. I'm not 100% sure on Best Picture, but Scorsese will win Best Director. He may lose the Golden Globe since he won just two years ago, but there's no way he's going to lose the Oscar.
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| Fri Jan 14, 2005 8:00 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Didn't people say exactly the same about him winning Best Director 2 years ago?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Jan 14, 2005 9:29 am |
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andaroo1
Lord of filth
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Didn't people say exactly the same about him winning Best Director 2 years ago? Yeah but in no way was Gangs going to win to Chicago, Pianist or Golden Globe favorite The Hours.
When you have a weak picture, you have a weak shot. A lot of people thought Rob Marshall would upset.
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| Fri Jan 14, 2005 11:00 am |
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Levy
Golfaholic
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2005 2:06 pm
Posts: 16054
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Didn't people say exactly the same about him winning Best Director 2 years ago? No, there was a lot of backlash against him...
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| Fri Jan 14, 2005 3:38 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Levy wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Didn't people say exactly the same about him winning Best Director 2 years ago? No, there was a lot of backlash against him... Not really. You should go back and see the odds that were for him winning  _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Jan 14, 2005 4:41 pm |
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Levy
Golfaholic
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2005 2:06 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Levy wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Didn't people say exactly the same about him winning Best Director 2 years ago? No, there was a lot of backlash against him... Not really. You should go back and see the odds that were for him winning And you should re-read that William Goldman piece from two years ago... 
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| Fri Jan 14, 2005 4:46 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Levy wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Levy wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Didn't people say exactly the same about him winning Best Director 2 years ago? No, there was a lot of backlash against him... Not really. You should go back and see the odds that were for him winning And you should re-read that William Goldman piece from two years ago... Ah, you mean the screenwriter of Dreamcatcher...  _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Jan 14, 2005 4:53 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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OSCAR NOMINATIONS:
Ray
Sideways
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray and Finding Neverland are out of the race, Sideways got only 5 noms and is too small to win anyway. It's down to Milion Dolar Baby and The Aviator, but at this point I consider The Aviator as close to a lock as it gets.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Thu Jan 27, 2005 12:50 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am
Posts: 15310
Location: Slumming at KJ
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Jay Leno and another guest are once again GUSHING about Million Dollar Baby. They just talked about it for a good bit. I'm just not seeing this kind of attention given to the other movies. Dennis Leary and James Woods both made a point to rave about it, and now Chris Mathews has done it. (he's not exactly a big star or anything, but that's 3 that I've heard do it, and I don't watch all the time)
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| Thu Jan 27, 2005 1:13 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Maverikk wrote: Jay Leno and another guest are once again GUSHING about Million Dollar Baby. They just talked about it for a good bit. I'm just not seeing this kind of attention given to the other movies. Dennis Leary and James Woods both made a point to rave about it, and now Chris Mathews has done it. (he's not exactly a big star or anything, but that's 3 that I've heard do it, and I don't watch all the time) With over 650,000 words the English language has the richest vocabulary in the world. Can you, by any chance, find a replacement for that word?  _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Thu Jan 27, 2005 1:14 am |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am
Posts: 15310
Location: Slumming at KJ
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Dr. Lecter wrote: With over 650,000 words the English language has the richest vocabulary in the world. Can you, by any chance, find a replacement for that word? No, because the word has gotten too much attention now to stop using it. \:D/
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| Thu Jan 27, 2005 1:19 am |
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