I wonder how possible the following line up is...

Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
June
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood



I think 3 of them could make it.

It's Juno, no? ;)

I also think 3 of them can make it in. Wanna guess which ones?

Yeah Juno. My bad.

I'm guessing Atonement and Charlie Wilson's War have the best chances thus far. Atonement based on reviews and acclaim and CWW based solely on pedigree I'll admit.

I'm not seeing such a large success with Juno though. The release date has me really worried that it's not going to pick up enough buzz to ride a nomination with. UNLESS it starts picking up critics awards and gains alot of ground with some fo the best reviews of the year and gets touted as a serious contender rather than the token "light-hearted" nod.

I don't know how commercial or how Academy friendly There Will Be Blood is going to be. I really think it has potential. It's not a political thriller so it has at least that going for it

As for Sweeney Todd... I really can't say until we know something more about the film (preferably a screening). If it lives up to the hype and expectation, I do think it can make it. I think Sweeney Todd is either going to be a major player or not much at all.

I guess to play it safe, I'd go with Atonement, CWW, and TWBB. I don't think it's wise to be boldly predicting two films based just on what it has on paper.

Yes, those are the ones I had on my mind as well.

I agree with you on Sweeney Todd too...

Obviously, I am basing Charlie Wilson's War on pedigree and There Will Be Blood on my impressions and gut feeling so far, but sometimes that's almost enough. I mean I knew The Aviator and Munich would be Oscar-nomnated about a year prior to each film's release, both simply based on the pedigree and the plotline. Some films just have "Oscar" written all over them. Of course you can be wrong with that too (Cold Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha), but Mike Nichols is generally a reliable director and the cast is to die for.

I don't see Juno as a player in the BP/BD categories, much rather in actng/screenplay.

Across the Universe could be another case of The Invasion (studio vs artist).

In the Valley of Ellah is now fresh on RT with a handful of rave reviews. I'm kinda scared lol my guess is the reaction will not be pretty around here if it ends up being a contender (even before people go out and see it).

I think I mentioned it in the surprises thread. Definitely something to look out for but I don't think it's gonna be a havey player in the game.

So "In the Valley of Ellah" just received 4 stars from Roger Ebert

It is 70% fresh cream of the crop on RT.

If nothing else that is great for Tommy Lee Jones who looks more and more of a lock in the actor category.

I would really like to see Susan Sarandon get another nomination though.

Don't forget he was major player in Crash's road to the Oscars (It was his #1 film of 2005).

Yeah, that's the parallel I was trying to draw.

Prior to the movie's opening many people compared Across the Universe to Moulin Rouge, and that seems to be pretty accurate at least in terms of critical/audience response to the film. It only has 41% at RT but 57% Cream of the Crop (with many other positive reviews yet to be factored in, including Ebert's) and 64 at Metacritic (Moulin Rouge has a 66). So while the reviews are far from overwhelmingly positive those who do like it seem to be quite passionate about it (this was also true for Taymor's last two films, Titus and Frida).

Of course the chances of it following in Moulin Rouge's footsteps are quite low but, like Frida, it probably will be a major player in the technical categories.

The reviews are not totally dissimilar from Crash, really: 61%/6.3 at RT, 70%/6.3 COTC, 66 at MC with 2 100s.

I agree Tommy Lee Jones is looking really good for a nom.

This calls for a "Haggis Go Away" op-ed.

I will remain convinced that my "Follow-up Curse" will prevail.

Of course, Haggis will then counter this by releasing his version told from the POV of the soldiers that killed TLJ's son at the last minute, get a 106 on Metacritic and 17 Oscar nominations. Asshole.

Elah has 3 100s already by the way.

Eastern Promises apparently won the People's Choice award at TIFF.

Yep, wit Juno the runner-up. The only People's Choice to get a Best Picture nom in the last 20 years have been Shine, Life is Beatuiful and American Beauty, but other winners since have had varying degrees of Oscar success. Here's the IMDB page for Toranto w/ past Audience Award winners:

http://www.imdb.com/Sections/Awards/Tor ... _Festival/

I find it prticularly awesome that The Princess Bride won there. Quite the Film Fest.

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon also won and used TIFF as the launching pad for its award and box office success.

Oops, missed that one.

That was a pretty good streak they had there. Odd how they've cooled ff s of late, though if Eastern Promises does well I could see it going very far.

Some final thoughts from James Berardinelli:

Lust, Caution seems to rebound as far as reviews go, but I still don't see it as a player in anything major.

Juno could have major marketable appeal with the success of Knocked Up. It has a similar vibe and better cast.
It could be one of the few films which succeed with audiences out of the gate well before it hits awards boosts. Seems like award buzz movies these days are slow builders which have strongest business near awards time. Juno could be a major opener if marketed as a wide comedy, but that would dent its oscar chances. They will roll it out slowly.

Into the Wild just got a 3.5 star from Berardinelli, so Juno has a chance at a 4-star, which he normally only gives out 1 or 2 a year (except for 2003).

Whcih ones got it in 2003?

I think last year U93 and The Departed got 4 stars.


Could Juno get 95+% at RT, similar to Sideways?

Maybe, but if it is it'll be a unanimously good 8/10s 95%+, instead of the 10/10 uber-raves that Sideways got. I don't expect 21 100s at metacritic or a reaction capable of beating Eternal Sunshine on year end lists, heh. I mean I like Sideways but the reaction to it was totally insane. I think Juno is more likely to match Little Miss Sunshine numbers and reaction.

I agree with that. Too bad it is not getting a October release or so. With that release, it would totally get enough award buzz in time and gross enough money to be seen by enough people.

http://www.reelviews.net/movies/SPECIAL/2003list.html. Five total.

Munich is the only 4-star for 2005, 2004 Maria Full of Grace, 2002 Minority Report and TTT.