I miss the years when there was a film that would dominate the Oscar nominations with 11, 12, 13 or even 14 nominations. I find it exciting! The last couple years have been sucky in that respect. Let's take a look.

1993: Schindler's List = 12
1994: Forrest Gump = 13
1995: Braveheart = 10
1996: The English Patient = 12
1997: Titanic = 14
1998: Shakespeare in Love = 13
& Saving Private Ryan = 11
1999: American Beauty = 8
2000: Gladiator = 12
2001: The Fellowship of the Ring = 13
2002: Chicago = 13
2003: Return of the King = 11
2004: The Aviator = 11

1999 is the only "low" year.
Every year from 1993 to 2004 (except for '95 and '99) had a film that scored 11 to 14 nominations. 1995 had Braveheart with still an impressive 10 nominations, as well.

Now let's take a look at the last two years:

2005: Brokeback Mountain = 8 (No Best Picture win)
2006: Dreamgirls = 8 (No Best Picture, Director or Screenplay nominations)

Booorrrring!

So, are there are any films this year that could potentially be the "nominations dominator"? Could we return back to the era where at least one film would trump 'em all with 11-14 nominations?

Is it likely to happen? *crosses fingers* Or unlikely? And how many nominations? Let's discuss.

Peace,
Mike

The Academy likes to spread the wealth.

With The Golden Age disappointing, I don't really see a single film sweeping the noms. Somethinbg like Atonement could get 8-9 noms probably, American Gangster maybe around 7-8 noms and There Will Be Blood about 7-9 noms, but I don't see any really scoring more than that.

That's not what I wanted to hear.

Peace,
Mike

I've got Atonement pegged at 12 nominations, so don't lose hope! There Will Be Blood could also break the double-digits:

Picture
Director
Actor (Day-Lewis)
S. Actor (P. Dano)
Adapted Screenplay
Art Direction
Cinematography
Costume Design
Film Editing
Score
Makeup? (Spans 30 years, plenty of aging makeup potential)

I think the key here is that there are a lot more period/epic-y films that aren't disappointments this year, and ones with plenty of technical marvel. In the last two years the only nominees that took place more than 50 ago were Good Night/Good Luck and Letters from Iwo Jima, and they cost $7.5 and $15 million respectively. Granted, Atonement and TWBB didn't exactly break the bank (Costing $35 and $25 million respectively), though I think they'll scream out to the techs a lot more than those other two. We'll see, I guess.

Atonement is more or less a lock for 7.

Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor and Actress and Score and Cinematography.

Then there's

Costume (likely)
Supporting Actress (I think at least one of the actresses will make it. Redgrave essentially has a cameo but is still getting great reviews for her short appearance).
Sound and Sound editing (war sequences)
Editing. Spans over a long period of time.
Art Direction (very likely)
Makeup (a bit iffy but...)

Unless it ends up not being as strong of a player in the top categories (unlikely at this point) I don't see how it could get anything less than 10 nominations. I really really do think The English Patient is a good comparison.

The Actor category is going to be very fierece, so I wouldn't quite put McAvoy as a lock in there.

It's also not a lock for Make-Up, definitely (but you missed Cinematography which it is more likely to score for).

My post?

I put cinematography and score as locks together because in my mind they go hand in hand

And make-up= iffy.

As I see it it will get everything Pride & Prejudice plust at least 3 more (picture, screenplay, director). I have a hard time seeing it not pick up at least 3 more nomination elsewhere if it becomes a top contender for the best picture prize.

My bad, got something mixed up...

I would have liked to have seen that. I just like it when one film explodes with nominations. It creates a buzz.

Come onnnnnnn Atonement. Let's see 14 noms! Let's make this a killer year.

Peace,
Mike

Actually, I'd love to see another Shakespeare in Love / Saving Private Ryan year (13 and 11 noms respectively). Two films with double digit nominations, both nominated for the biggies. Now that is fun.

Peace,
Mike

American Gangster could also definitely hit double digits this year, and so far the buzz on it is strong enough for me to think it's possible.

American Gangster will not hit double digits. I'd bet alot on that!

If Atonement lives up to the critical acclaim it has received thus far, it should be a shoe-in for 9-10 nominations. I agree with Rod, Atonement has at least 7 locked up at this point. For me those 7 would be Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, and Art Direction. I think it will definitely get some acting attention, I just don't know what yet. There is tough competition for the Actor race and I don't know which category Knightley will end up in.

There are two films that could also potentially get double digit noms and alas, they are practically the only 2 films that we have yet to hear almost any word from. If they do happen to fulfill the high expectations they carry, here are the possibilities...

Sweeney Todd
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design
Best Sound Mixing/Editing
Best Makeup
(Best Cinematography)


Charlie Wilson's War
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
(Best Supporting Actor)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Art Direction
(Best Costume)
(Best Score)

I see Charlie Wilson's War getting around 7-8 nominations. Atonement 9 nomination. Sweeney Todd 10 nominations.... if of course they all become major players. If Sweeney Todd is good, then it should have no problem collecting nominations left and right.

I don't think Sweeny Todd will get a BP/BD nom, so not too many noms for it, IMO. Just lots of tech stuff.

I think it will be between There Will Be Blood and Atonement for 10+ noms.

no make-up involved - maybe in the hospital scenes a bit, but not Oscar material.

Lock:
Picture
Director
Knightley
McAvoy
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Editing
Art Direction

Likely:
Costumes
Score

Unlikely:
Sound
Sound Editing
Sup. Actress

Hmm, Atonement getting so many noms, maybe it can win after all

This year I don't see a picture really dominating, although some could come close to double digits, but next year there is a movie that if it's well received, could be a lock for 10+ nominations, as it can score in acting + technicals nominations, and that is Baz Luhrmann's Australia.

As I see it now, Atonement is the only one that has a decent chance.

Charlie Wilson fell from my list after the trailer. not that it looked bad, but I thought it was going to be more serious than semi-humorous/satirical. Then again, it's Nichols. I keep going back and forth on this one but I'm pretty sure number wise, it still won't have what it takes to get near 10.

I'm still holding out on Sweeney Todd just because it's a musical but the lack of buzz and the sub-stellar trailer has also dropped it from my list.

sweeny todd is too weird for the academy to award with big nominations. count on it

I'm fairly convinced now that at least one film will act as a "Nominations Dominator" this year and receive double digit nominations, and I think that film will be Sweeney Todd. It has potential in up to 12 different categories I think.

If any other film were to hit the double digit mark, I think Atonement could make it as well.

Both Sweeney Todd and Atonement are Best Picture/Director material, have strong acting across the board and could nab lead and supporting nominations, and can hit up a slew of technical/artistic categories due to the nature of the films (one is a period piece, and the other an extravagant musical). Atonement is also pretty much guaranteed a Best Score nomination, as I see it. I see both as nabbing Adapted Screenplay noms for their adaptations from book/stage to screen.

So, the potential is there for both.

Peace,
Mike

Yep. I never should have doubted myself

Picture
Director
Actor
(S. Actor?)
Adapted Screenplay
Art Direction
Costume
Editing
(Makeup)
(Cinematography)
Sound Editing/Mixing
(Original Song?)

I think it has potential but there are alot of question marks to fill and they won't be evident till reviews start pouring in and the techie races start heating up. One thing though is that unless she goes supporting, Helena Bonham Carter is out of a nomination, too crowded I think.

I always thought she was going supporting. I didn't know that was a question mark. I see her getting a nomination, or having a better chance getting one than Cohen or Rickman, with what I've read so far.

Peace,
Mike

Barring a big surprise, it looks to me that no movie this year will get more than 7-8 nominations. Once again.

In my line-up, I see:

Atonement:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress
Best Art Direction
Best Cinematography
Best Costumes
Best Score
(Best Actress)


Into the Wild:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Song


There Will Be Blood:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Actor
Best Score
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
(Best Supporting Actor)


No Country for Old Men:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Supporting Actor
Best Sound
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
(Best Supporting Actor)


Juno:

Best Picture
Best Original Screenplay
Best Actress


So that leaves the potential maximum at 7-8 noms, IMO.

For other (potential) nominees:


Michael Clayton:

Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay


American Gangster:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Editing
Best Art Direction


Sweeney Todd:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Art Direction
Best Make-Up
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Sound


Basically....unless Atonement really breaks out and scores more acting noms than I expect it to....no 10+ noms for any film this year

Well, Loyal, let's hope that Luhrman's Australia has got the goods because that film is a definite candidate for 10+ noms.

Memoirs of a Geisha should have been one as well...if it just had been better.