I know a lot of us, myself included, have assumed Sicko is a lock for Best Documentary win: box office, review, Michael Moore, an important subject, it has everything, just like An Inconvenient Truth last year. However, while browsing metacritic, I just realized the kind of raves No End in Sight has gotten: 89 average with 22 reviews, 8 100s. Switch to RT, 96% with 8.1 average, 96%/8.3 COTC. And it's about Iraq, the grand-daddy of all subjects, and no such documentary has won since the war started four years ago. The box office is its weakest aspect, but recent winners Born Into Brothels and The Fog of War had similar gross before getting help from the nomination. Overall, I think the race is much closer than I first anticipated.

You do know who the president of this year's documentary commission is, right? That should settle this question...

They're both excellent, but No End in Sight is truly required viewing for every single American citizen, and just about any critic whose seen it would agree. Tit for tat I see it taking the crown over the "bigger" film, which would hardly be a first for the Oscars.

May I specify that: MICHAEL MOORE'S WIFE heads the documentary commission this year - at least that's what the directors of "Manufacturing Dissent" told me. Their exact words were "So bye-bye Oscar for us".

And I agree with loyal, Manufacturing Dissent is a very excellent view on the shady workings of Michael Moore, free from political undertones. Since it's been made by liberals it is very balanced (I've seen the complete thing)

I believe Deliver Us from Evil had even better reviews, truly excellent ones, yet The nconvenient Truth has won.

If Sicko does win it'll be undeserved, not because of any viewpoints but more because its rather shoddily made.

They picked apart Bowling for Columbine as well. For instance the 100% open doors in Canada were actually only 40%. They spare Fahrenheit 9/11 because they didn't wanna be caught in that whole political controversy.
Funny story: When I interviewed them I asked them how they came to the idea that Moore could fake most parts of his documentary. They met someone who told them that he acted in a Michael Moore movie. They asked if he was in Canadian Bacon and he said No, I was in "The Big One". I played a news anchor.

But Deliver Us From Evil is about a pedophile, which has always been a tough topic to get recognition (Captures the Friedmans lost to Fog of War) and no where near the "importance" level as AIT in academy's eyes.

Well, that still doesn't stop No End in Sight from winning. Remember, Academy members are required to see ALL of the Documentary nominees in order to vote, which should work to No End in Sight's advantage (Same goes for the other ghetto categories, that's how Pan's Labyrinth lost last year to The Lives of Others). I think it's entirely possible.

No other potential Doc winners around?

Not yet. In the Shadow of the Moon looks like a classic also ran though (Interviews with astronauts that have walked on the moon + never-before-seen archive footage from NASA). 84 on Metacritic at the moment.

Only if it gets near-unanimous raves, ala Deliver Us from Evil or Capturing the Friedmans. I really doubt it could win though. Too dark + controversial an issue.

Let's not forget that Moore's F 9/11, a film that his would have almost certainly won for, was disqualified...

It has 5 reviews on RT so far for an 8.0 average, and I've heard nothing but raves. But I thought it was completed last year... Either way, I'm very excited for it but I think No End in Sight has more going for it.