I think the snub to A History of Violence works very much in Eastern Promises' favor, in particular for Cronenberg. If EP just had similar reviews, I'd have put him in; now it looks to be even more universally praised, he has jumped ahead of Coen Bros to me as the director most likely to be nominated from the films we have seen actual reviews.

Some speculations on Venice (Golden Lion tomorrow):



And Toronto has opened!

If Cronenberg actually ends up nominated, that is not a good omen for P.T. Anderson, Burton and the Coens, as I definitely don't see every single one of them (the directors snubbed by the Academy so far) to be nominated. At most, I see two of them getting in at once.

Watching the There Will Be Blood trailer it'll have to REALLY suck to not be contender.

Unfortunately the same goes for In the Valley of Elah. I'm keeping it out of my predictions mainly because the "Best Picture follow-up" trend has become so consistent as of late and saved my ass many times that I figure it's best to stick with my gut. Still, if there's a guy that can break through the trend, it's the man with an already large group of haters that immediately lower expectations anyway. Ugh.

Atonement has 14 reviews on RT by the way, still at 100% with a 7.9/10 rating. I really can't see this winning though, with the probably low box-office. Also doesn't have the race card and big actors that Crash had. Something like American Gangster or CWW will outrun it by December.

The Valley of Elah's reviews are way too mixed and I don't see more than $20-30 million at the box-office. Should not really be a player.

Hollywood Reporter no likey Rendition, confirming my suspicion tht it's way too heavy-hnded to make a dent, awards-wise.

With so many government and political movies this year, I was counting on Rendition to miss as well.

I never really expected Rendition to be THAT big of a player, but I wouldn't count it out just yet. Not based on that one review anyway. There are two other reviews I have seen (Boston Globe and Toronto Star) and both are extremely positive. Both those critics also have a much better track record (going with the general consensus.)

Maybe it could even be this year's Babel.

I also forget if it was this thread or another where I read about Atonement's box office prospects, but I think they are much better than people are expecting. It has the whole war/romance thing going for it plus two rising stars, plus probably great word of mouth. I could easily see $70 million+ and the only reason I hesitate to go anywhere higher is that it's distributed by Focus.

Surprisingly one of the most universally liked pics from Telluride/Toronto is Juno. I don't really see it becoming much of a player (not with its release date) but...maybe a contender for best original screenplay?

Lust, Caution won Venice!

GOLDEN LION for Best Film:

SE, JIE (LUST, CAUTION) by Ang LEE (USA/China/China, Taiwan)

SILVER LION for Best Director to:

Brian DE PALMA for the film: REDACTED (USA)

SPECIAL JURY PRIZE to (ex aequo):

LA GRAINE ET LE MULET by Abdellatif KECHICHE (France)

I’M NOT THERE by Todd HAYNES (USA)

COPPA VOLPI

for Best Actor:

Brad PITT in the film THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES

BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD by Andrew DOMINIK (USA)

COPPA VOLPI

for Best Actress:

Cate BLANCHETT in the film: I’M NOT THERE by Todd HAYNES (USA)


MARCELLO MASTROIANNI AWARD

for Best Young Actor or Actress:

Hafsia HERZI in the film LA GRAINE ET LE MULET by Abdellatif KECHICHE (France)

OSELLA

for Best Cinematography to:

Rodrigo PRIETO director of photography for the SE, JIE (LUST, CAUTION) di Ang LEE (USA/China/China, Taiwan)

OSELLA

for Best Screenplay to:

Paul LAVERTY for the film IT’S A FREE WORLD… by Ken LOACH

(UK/Italy/Germany/Spain)

SPECIAL LION for Overall Work to:

NIKITA MIKHALKOV

I think we should make a seperate thread for the Venice winners. Plenty of speculation to arise from that.

Anyway, R. Ebert has named two films "perfect" from Toronto so far: No Country for Old Men (Comparing Bardem's character to Hannibal Lecter) and...Rendition. Whoa boy.

He also calls Eastern Promises and The Assassination of Jesse James... "extraordinary" and has given Viggo the "Ebert Prediction Seal of Approval." Nice.

Great for Lust, Caution, but I still doubt its chances at the Oscars as far as any major noms go.

With an NC-17 rating, its box-office will be very limited, likely no more than $10 million. Some compare it to Letters from Iwo Jima, but...

1. Iwo Jima was part of a very ambitious undertaking

2. Iwo Jima had a much much more Academy-friendly subject

3. Clint Eastwood is definitely more beloved by the Academy as an icon of American cinema

4. Ang Lee has just recently been rewarded

I would say Lee is in the running for a BD without BP nomination, if this year wasn't so packed.

The year is too packed with directors who could potentially snatch a BD nom, without getting BP:

P.T. Anderson
The Coens
Tim Burton
David Cronenberg

All of them are currently more overdue than Lee.

Then there are of course Shekhar Kapur who was already snubbed for the first Elizabeth, Mike Nichols, Terry George (narrowly missed for Hotel Rwanda, I think), Marc Foster (missed for Finding Neverland) and the WAY overdue for a win Ridley Scott.

Ang Lee would really need to deliver a huge huge masterpiece to be in contention, I'd say and all signs so far point at a pretty good, but not outstanding film.

Those winners have just made the race a lot more interesting. I hope the rest of the awards to come keep throwing us in for more of a ride.

According to Awards Pundit/Pervert Jeff Wells The Golden Age blows:

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/archives ... _the_g.php

I'm gonna wait for someone with actual credibility before going nuts, but if true I'll be happy I never actually predicted it for Best Picture. It also might free up a spot in the already-crowded Actress category.

There was one part in the trailer that worried me ("I have a hurricane in me...") because it seemed so over the top and unnecessary. But I thought maybe within the context of the film it fit in so...I don't know. I still hold out hope. I wonder if this does perform poorly with critics though, might Blanchett be pushed as a lead for I'm Not There??

By the sound of it, Wells didn't like the first one either, though...so...

Granted they all live up to expectation, I'd love to see the following in the category...

Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
Eastern Promises

Alt. There Will Be Blood (for No Country for Old Men/Eastern Promises)

By the way, HR and Variety are in on Cassandra's Dream and both hated it. I don't put much stock in Variety because I think they've disliked every film this year, but HR is a slightly worse sign. The reaction overall apparantley was a bit poor for the film.

I just realized Rendition is one of those interconnecting storylines over multiple continents make you feel bad about yourself movies... thought it was just Meryl Jake Reese dressed in suits arguing about politics

The one word trend continues!

Renditions trailer doesn't fill me with much confindence, looks overly manipulative. Still the academy do love this stuff so...

More people also don't like the Elizabeth sequel. The word on it is that Cate Blanchett (duh) and the makeup/set design/technical aspect are effective, but everything else blows.

Another Memoirs of a Geisha? Don't forget how close Ziyi came to a nom...

And now for the most obvious but still painful surprise of the season so far, Across the Universe has been panned. Premiere called it "the perfect disaster" and Berardinelli ripped it apart, among others. Shame because if done right it could've been really special.