Love his site, although I don't necessarily agree with his updated predictions. He is going too indie heavy, as he hasn't changed them much since April 1st, while I believe there has to be one blockbuster at least lurking, given what happened last year.

Best Picture
1. Untitled Spielberg
2. Jarhead
3. The White Countess
4. In Her Shoes
5. Brokeback Mountain

Alternatives:
6. The New World
7. Memoirs of a Geisha
8. Match Point
9. Rent
10. Elizabethtown

Best Director
1. Steven Spielberg, Untitled
2. Sam Mendes, Jarhead
3. Terrence Malick, The New World
4. David Cronenberg, A History of Violence
5. James Ivory, The White Countess

Alternatives:
6. Ang Lee, Brokeback Moutain
7. Curtis Hanson, In Her Shoes
8. Woody Allen, Matchpoint
9. Cameron Crowe, Elizabethtown
10. Rob Marshall, Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Actor
1. Ralph Fiennes, The White Countess / Constant Gardener
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
3. Viggo Mortenson, A History of Violence
4. Colin Farrell, The New World
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Jarhead / Brokeback Mountain

Alternative:
6. Sean Penn, All the Kings Men
7. Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain / Casanova
8. Robert Downey Jr., Kiss Kiss Bang Bang
9. Steve Martin, Shopgirl
10. Orlando Bloom, Elizabethtown

Best Actress
1. Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2. Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson...
3. Samantha Morton, The River Queen
4. Juliette Binoche, Bee Season
5. Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger

Alternatives:
6. Natasha Richardson, The White Countess
7. Zhang Ziyi, Memoirs of a Geisha
8. Julianne Moore, The Prize Winner
9. Cameron Diaz, In Her Shoes
10. Uma Thurman, Prime

Best Support Actor
1. Peter Sarsgaard, Jarhead
2. Richard Gere, Bee Season
3. Christopher Plummer, The New World
4. Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson...
5. Daniel Craig, Untitled Spielberg

Alternatives:
6. Wes Studi, The New World
7. Kevin Costner, The Upside of Anger / Rumor Has It

Best Supporting Actress
1. Meryl Streep, Prime
2. Toni Collette, In Her Shoes
3. Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha
4. Shirley Maclaine, In Her Shoes / Untitled
5. Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

Alternatives:
6. Scarlett Johansson, Matchpoint
7. Patricia Clarkson, All the Kings Men

I think Vengeance and Jarhead are safe picks for now. I'd still have Memoirs of a Geisha up there, too. (By the way, whatever happened to a trailer in front of Bewitched?)

In Her Shoes, though? The trailer didn't scream Oscar to me at all. Nor did Rent's, but it's a little early.

And although I think they both have sizeable chances, I'm still not totally convinced that Brokeback Mountain and The New World will be contenders.

Eric Bana can get a nomination for BA if vegence is as good as i hope.