It sounds crazy, I know, but between The Revenant and Star Wars, there is gonna be one hell of a fight over the tech categories.

It has great shots at Sound Editing/Mixing/Visual Effects/Editing/Makeup, but so does The Revenant.

I could also see it ending up with just 1-2 Oscars if the Academy really goes for The Revenant which is white-hot at the moment and has the momentum.

I don't think Star Wars will factor in much but The Revenant is going head to head with it in everything, so it'll be interesting to see what happens. I have it winning 7/10, similar to Gravity.

I couls see Star Wars getting some love, like a Sound win and maybe VFX.

Hopefully.

Has VFX ever gone to a non-BP nominated film when there was overlap? Admittedly, there's probably not a whole lot of precedent, but I think it's either going to Mad Max or the Revenant.

It has happened, but rarely.

I tried

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_A ... al_Effects

Can't find any modern day.

Tora! Tora! Tora! was last.

I think 1970 firmly falls out of the category of "modern day" lol

Possible but not likely, I don't think.

Let's break it down, bottom to top

Best Visual Effects - will probably win
Best Sound Editing - will probably win
Best Sound Mixing - will probably win
Best Make Up & Hairstyling - a possible win
Best Costume Design - a possible win
Best Production Design - will probably win
Best Cinematography - will probably not win
Best Editing - a possible win
Best Director - a possible win
Best Picture - a possible win

Something pretty terrible would have to happen for Mad Max to go 0/10. On paper, it's a frontrunner in multiple categories.

No, I see at least 5-6 wins. It will either split the categories its nominated for with The Revenant or win all of them.

It'll end up with tech wins only. Let's be serious.

Well, 8 of its noms are tech noms.

So I guess it will win SOMETHING, but it really doesn't seem to be the clear frontrunner in anything.

I don't think it has a chance at BP/BD/Cinematography and it is in a clear disadvantage for Editing and Visual Effects.

Sound-Oscars could go to Star Wars or be split between Star Wars and The Revenant.

The Revenant could easily win Makeup.

Costume category is often weird, Oscar voters love fantasy or period pics, so Cin derella or The Danish Girl could win.

I guess Production Design is the one where it does not have that much competition, but if The Revenant pulls a Gravity, it could win that.

So it isn't getting Best Director because of the Guilds? Are they always 100% the same as the Oscars?

There is neer a 100% guarantee with the Oscars, but...

In 67 years of DGA awards, they have been "wrong" only seen times. In three of those times the DGA winner was not even nominated for an Oscar. So out of those nominated at the DGA awards and the Oscars, only 4 out of 64 have ever won the DGA, but lost the Oscar. The last two of these four were Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon) and Rob Marshall (Chicago).

In addition to that George Miller got no BAFTA nom, which is the ultimate blow when combined wih the DGA stats. Out of the seven directors who won the Oscar, but lost DGA, three have won the BAFTA and three further were nominated.

Sydney Pollack is thus the only director not to be nominated at the BAFTA and to have lost the DGA, yet wo win the Oscar. However, that year's DGA winner Steven Spielberg (The Color Purple) was not even nominated at the Oscars...

Mad Max was a pretty movie (pretty empty). Nothing would be the appropriate award.

Right, so it would be unprecedented for Miller to win BD. Damn, I hope he does now!

Wow, Ex Machina really did just shit all over precedent this year.