Clint Eastwood, "American Sniper"
Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Birdman"
Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
Wes Anderson, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Morten Tyldum, "The Imitation Game"

Selma, lol.

Poor Selma.

Selma was completely botched. All around. From the release, to the marketing, to getting it seen my guild members. For a film that has received GREAT reviews, this is pretty unprecedented, imo.

Oh well.

Poor Mr. Turner.

At least Selma was not muscled out by a red-meat, right-leaning, super-old-school icon of the white American patriarchy. This would just add insult to injury.

Think either Eastwood or Tyldum will miss the Oscar lineup; maybe even both. Anderson is very much secure though.

well shit at American Sniper. If Cooper gets in the already crowded Best Actor who's gonna get shunned out?

But Selma missing is no longer a surprise at this point, though, is it? With the whole screener thing? It is so unpredictable because one must assume that the guilds haven't seen it, but the Academy members (and apparently the HFPA members) have.

But damn, American Sniper is becoming bigger and bigger by day.

I see at least ONE of them being nominated. If both of them miss it, who are your other predictions? David Fincher still has a chance of being nominated and a better chance than DuVernay.

Damn. Killed it with this post.

Chazelle, DuVernay, Fincher, and Marsh are all possible. I'm actually pretty confident in Chazelle making it. It's someone the smaller director branch in the academy is more likely to embrace than the guild with all the TV directors, and BAFTA nominated him over Tyldum.

Marsh is a very long shot, even with that BAFTA nod. Chazelle will probably make it, akin to Benh Zetlin's nom for Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Winner will be announced on Sat night. Linklater should win, but if Birdman sweeps PGA/SAG/DGA, then the race is basically over.

I cannot wrap my head around Birdman winning the BP Oscar, so this will not happen. Linklater will win.

For precedence, Apollo 13 also swept DGA/PGA/SAG and lost the Oscar. But yeah I would rank Boyhood #3 for BP if it loses DGA as well.

Apollo 13, however, had the huge disadvantage of not having its director nominated for an Oscar. If Birdman wins the DGA, the race is over.

Feels like Boyhood wins this and BP

Iñárritu won, and the race is turned completely upside down and practically over. To refresh my mind, what's the last movie to win BP without an editing nom?

Birdman compared to all the other BP winners feels... hip? Is that the right word?

1981, Ordinary People

I cannot picture a Birdman BP win....and is Birdman going to win BP, but leave Keaton behind?

Besides Apollo 13, the only other film to sweep PGA/DGA/SAG and not winning Best Director was Chicago, and that's due to a last-minute surge by The Pianist. Unless BAFTA tells us otherwise, Picture/Director/Cinematography look set for Birdman, and it'll be at least a co-favorite for both screenplay and actor. Boyhood could end up winning only supporting actress, although its ACE win does mean it's a co-favorite in editing (with AS).

Ugh. Birdman is so mediocre.