I kinda wanted to see this year's contenders through the lens of specific movie studio, and how their contenders did in previous years. My assumption is the studio is doing the campaigning plays almost as important role as the individual merits of the movie, or at least a big enough factor to make a difference.

Will start with Fox Searchlight:

fox searchlight
http://www.imdb.com/company/co0028932/?ref_=ttco_co_13

2014:
birdman
The grand Budapest hotel
Wild

Past contenders:
12 Years a Slave (2013)
the Sessions (2012)
Beasts of the southern wild (2012)
shame (2011)
The descendants (2011)
the tree of life (2011)
127 hours (2010)
Black swan (2010)
Crazy heart (2009)
The wrestler (2008)
Slumdog millionaire (2008)
Juno (2007)

analysis:
this is a really strong studio with Oscar BP nominees every year (besides 2009). 2012 stands out to me because Beasts of the Southern Wild had seemingly came out of nowhere, but as Fox Searchlight's only awards horse that year, their focused campaign pushed it through.

Also interesting is they have years with multiple contenders, 2011 both Films got nominated for BD and BP, while 2010 both films got BP. in general, they are very good at getting BD nominations as several of their BD nominees weren't considered locks for nominees. I had been wondering if they might choose only one of Birdman or Grand Budapest Hotel to completely back behind for BD, but they have great enough track record to push both to become nominees.

for acting categories, the different contenders of same year usually stay out of each other's ways, which makes me wonder if Ralph Feinnes chances are weaker than BAFTA indicates, due to them pushing all their efforts for Michael Keaton.Another red flag is Mila Kunis - Black Swan And The Sessions -John Hawkes got a whole bunch of precursors (SAG +GG) but then missed out. Reese Witherspoon will not miss as their sole Best Actress horse so Idon't see that happening this year, but something to watch out for in future years.

will look at 20th century fiox next

20th Century fox
http://www.imdb.com/company/co0000756/?ref_=tt_dt_co

2014:
gone Girl

Since 2007:
avatar (2009)
Philomena (2013)* (Weinstein primary studio)
A bunch of Fox Searchlight movies

Comments
it seems like all their contenders are distributed by Fox Searchlight. only exception was Avatar in 2009, the only year Fox Searchlight didn't have a BP horse. the question is if it's the same promotional team campaigning for Fox Searchlight films also campaigned for Avatar, and now Gone Girl? if same team, they already have two stronger horses to concentrate on in Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, and have never pushed through 3 different films at same time. If different team, Fox doesn't really have much track record besides Avatar. I am now a lot more skeptical of Gone Girl's chances.

Sony Pictures Classic next

Sony Pictures Classic
http://www.imdb.com/company/co0014453/?ref_=ttco_co_7

2014:
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
Mr. turner

Past:
Blue jasmine (2013)
Before midnight (2013)
Rust and Bone (2012)
Midnight in Paris (2011)
an Education (2009)

Columbia Pictures
http://www.imdb.com/company/co0071509/?ref_=tt_dt_co

2014:
fury

past:
american Hustle (2013)
captain Phillips (2013)
zero Dark thirty (2012)
Girl with the dragon tattoo (2011)
Moneyball (2011)
Ides of March (2011)
the social network (2010)

Comments:
I can't tell if Sony Pictures Classic and Columbia Pictures should be treated as one entity, if not, Sony Pictures Classic by itself seems relatively weak. Let's assume they are one entity for analysis purposes.

In recent years some of the biggest snubs in various categories belong to Columbia (Captain Phillips, zero dark thirty, girl with the dragon tattoo all had DGA) and then Rust and Bone not getting actress. american Hustle Could be seen as directly cannibalizing Captain Phillips in BD and Actor. their films also seem to peak earlier in awards season, and lose momentum as actual Oscar voting occurs, especially when it comes to wins.

for this year, Whiplash is definitely's Sony horse and it will come at the expense of Foxcatcher and Mr. turner. But even if Whiplash gets DGA, there is still 50% history of missing BD Oscar.

LIKE!

didn't get around to other studios but it looks like:

If 20th Century Fox rather than Fox Searchlight release your film, your chances drop several notches; Rox Searchkight campaigning is really strong and help Dern get that fifth spot.

Sony conglomerate did good job this year, but even with key surprises for Foxcatcher couldn't turn that into a BP nom as well.