Go.

At the moment I'm seeing...

Amy Adams "American Hustle"
Cate Blanchett "Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock "Gravity"
Julia Roberts "August: Osage County"
Kate Winslet "Labor Day"

Alternates (ranked)
1. Naomi Watts "Diana"
2. Meryl Streep "August: Osage County"
3. Emma Thompson "Saving Mr. Banks"

Seems like a weak category thus far.

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Kate Winslet, Labor Day

A pattern I've noticed:

2009: Sandra Bullock starred in The Proposal ($164 m) in June, then The Blind Side in November ($256 m) and won the Oscar.

2013: Sandra Bullock starred in The Heat ($157 m) in June and is in Gravity in October, another movie likely to get awards attention.

Bullock might actually have a chance on this win if early word is any indicator...if she wins, its scary how much history repeats itself.

I don't think you can call something a pattern if it has not even happened twice yet.

Names eight very strong A-list contenders. Forgets another in Nicole Kidman. Calls category "weak."

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Amy Adams, American Hustle
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
5. Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
-
6. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
7. Julie Delpy, Befoe Midnight
8. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
9. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
10. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said

I don't believe the Blue Is the Warmest Color girl with the intense Greek name is going to be nominated. IFC is a small company. It is a three-hour foreign-language lesbian drama. Her place in the race reminds me of Marion Cotillard last year, except with even less in her favor (since Marion is an international star).

Unless Labor Day is a dud, I doubt Winslet misses. The role sounds so rich.

Also, just in my mind, I am more or less ruling Watts out. I know she is playing one of the 20th century's most iconic figures, but I just have this sense the film will not connect in a big way.

All I want is for Julia Roberts and Sandra Bullock to be nominated and for there to be red carpet pics of the two of them together. lol. I swear I've never seen them pictured together or even talk about each other when they've been competing for the same roles and Hollywood attention since, like, 1995.

I don't know why Watts isn't getting more attention. It's Princess Di. I thought Hollywood is all over all things royalty. Queen Elizabeth, Victoria, freaking Margaret Thatcher. I guess Best Actress must be pretty deep this year.

Thatcher wasn't royalty. Except in Algren's heart.

Anyone playing Princess Diana in even a decently made film should be Oscar gold, but it concerns me the tiny Entertainment One is the distributor. And there are several other British ladies for the English voters to rally behind instead of a sheila from Down Under pretending to be Princess Diana, including Judi Dench, Emma Thompson, and Kate Winslet.

I don't think anybody like Dench, Thompson or Winslet could have played Diana. They are too old and not petite enough, whereas the actress from King King fits it perfectly.

And no, Thatcher was not royalty, but Streep is Oscar royalty, hence the attention in the role.

I think Diana is out, personally. Reviews are starting to come in and are fairly awful.

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2013/se ... ana-review

Yeah, Watts ain't happenin'.

Poor Naomi. At least she got nominated last year.

Yeah, her career won't suffer or anything because of this. It is probably just going to be forgotten pretty quickly like Amelia or something.

This doesn't seem like an Iron Lady situation either where the movie itself is poorly received somewhat but the performance is praised. Most of the reviews say Naomi is pretty flat in the film.

No wonder a bigger company isn't releasing the film.

I think pretty much sure things at this point:

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity


Then I think it's fairly open, though Judi Dench has a really great shot for Philomena.

Weinstein should be able to get Nicole Kidman a nomination for Grace of Monaco. Maybe Julia Roberts for August: Osage County as well.

Would LOVE to see Julie Delpy get a well-deserved nomination for Before Midnight.

Yeah, though it must burn because now she’s used up her Diana resemblence card and didn't get a nomination for it. Miniature version of Morgan Freeman picking the wrong movie to Mandela and not winning an Oscar for it

Judi Dench too old to play Diana? You don't say!

Definitely a "post count post" from Lecter there. It's a shame he couldn't find a better excuse to make a post, though.

I am long beyond post count posts.

You have 77777 posts. Neat!

Fuck, I didn't even notice. I suppose I'll have to wait until 88,888...

As for the topic at hand...Watts is out, so I think this will be between Blanchett and Dench, with Dench having a major edge due to her age and the fact that the Academy seems to love her.

I don't think Bullock will be a serious threat based on the fact that she has won not too long ago and I struggle to imagine something like "two-time Academy Award winner Sandrs Bullock".

So, yeah, Blanchett vs. Dench.

Amy Adams might win after a boatload nominations if her bad-girl performance in American Hustle connects in a big way.