Go.

At the moment I'm seeing...

Ethan and Joel Coen "Inside Llewyn Davis"
Alfonso Cuarón "Gravity"
Steve McQueen "12 Years a Slave"
David O. Russell "American Hustle"
Martin Scorsese "The Wolf of Wall Street"

Alternates (ranked)
1. George Clooney "The Monuments Men"
2. Ron Howard "Rush"
3. Ryan Coogler "Fruitvale Station"
4. Woody Allen "Blue Jasmine"
5. Alexander Payne "Nebraska"

George Clooney, The Monuments Men
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Jason Reitman, Labor Day
David O. Russell, American Hustle

If Scorsese is nominated this year and The Wolf of Wall Street is very good, I believe it'll be his turn to win again. A legendary filmmaker like him, with so many noms, has to win more than just once.

There will also be lots of political/sentimental reasons to give Russell a win.

This is Steve McQueen's to lose. I'd consider him a bonafide frontrunner.

I may be wrong, but I believe O saw 12 Years a Slave.

You don't say!

I'm gonna say:

David O. Russell
Martin Scorsese
Steve McQueen
Alfonso Cuarón
Paul Greengrass

Alt: Ron Howard

It'd be an epic snub if they don't include Cuarón.

No offense, but Rush is not going to be a major Oscar contender. I know and respect the fact you have a hard-on for it, but still.

I would place the Coen brothers before Greengrass and Howard.

My hardon for it is not as big as it seems. It is not in my early Top 5 already.

But I think after the Academy nominated Howard for the box-office dud that was Frost/Nixon, they must have a major hardon for him.

I don't think the Coens themselves are gonna cut it. Their film might.

Frost/Nixon was such an Oscar friendly film, though, whereas this is a racing movie with advertising set to dubstep.

I expect this to make a bigger impact, though and be stronger in the techs. The direction is just better in this.

Then again, I don't even have Howard in my Top 5, so...

If there's any justice, Howard will not be nominated.

At the moment I'm seeing....

Alfonso Cuarón "Gravity"
Paul Greengrass "Captain Phillips"
Steve McQueen "12 Years a Slave"*
David O. Russell "American Hustle"
Martin Scorsese "The Wolf of Wall Street"

Only alternatives I see happening...
Woody Allen "Blue Jasmine"
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen "Inside Llewyn Davis"
Ryan Coogler "Fruitvale Station"

* projected winner

Oscar Issac has to be nominated for Best Actor I believe for the Coens to get nominated, Mulligan may have to be as well. Same goes for Coogler with "Fruitvale" in respects to Jordan. Allen may be the surprise nom but it's hard to guess who he would knock out, probably Greengrass.

Eh? Oscar Isaac has to be nominated for the Coens to be recognized? Unusual comment, to say the least.

In all seriousness - is it even possible to accurately predict the nominees in this category after the fuck-up that happened last time?

I mean no one in their right mind could or should have predicted Bigelow AND Affleck to be snubbed in favor of Russell and Zeitlin.

In other words - right now the Top 5 looks really solid to me: Scorsese, Russell, Greengrass, McQueen and Cuarón. But who knows what will happen?

I find this category hard to predict. Cuarón and McQueen are definitely in. And I would say Greengrass is 90 or 95 percent certain, too. But then there are the last two spots. I am not sure who is in the lead for them. The Coens? Alexander Payne? Martin Scorsese? David O. Russell? Woody Allen?

Russell and Scorsese, maybe.

Russell and Scorsese seems too obvious. At least one will miss, maybe even both. I'm currently predicting Jonze and the Coens for the final two slots.

Let's be honest. After last year, is it even possible at all to prredict this category? No one is safe, maybe except McQueen.

Last year's surprise nomination of Benh Zeitlin would presumably bode well for Ryan Coogler, though Fruitvale Station does not have the flamboyant, Malick indebted style of Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Ben Affleck.

Besides Affleck, I would say Scorsese, Snyder, Russell, Scalon and Abrams are the best

Russell, Scorsese, Cuarón, McQueen and Greengrass seem like such an obvious Top 5....which leads me to believe that it is too obvious. Who could be a spoiler? I'm thinking the Coens or Coogler, instead of Greengrass or Scorsese.