Go.

At the moment I'm seeing...

Christian Bale "American Hustle"
Leonardo DiCaprio "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Idris Elba "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"
Michael B. Jordan "Fruitvale Station"
Robert Redford "All Is Lost"

Alternates (ranked)
1. Tom Hanks "Captain Phillips"
2. Bruce Dern "Nebraska"
3. Chiwetel Ejiofor "12 Years a Slave"

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Josh Brolin, Labor Day
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Ralph Fiennes, The Invisible Woman
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Casey Affleck, Ain't Them Bodies Saints
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Not sure about the last two slots.

Leo is getting in with either Gatsby or Wolf.

If not, then the Academy can go fuck themselves.

Nah. These are not Oscar-worthy roles.

In Gatsby, his acting is nothing special. In Wolf, it'll take more than a funny dance.

I see you have not taken Lecters advice in not following me?

What are you talking about? I have never followed you. Notice how I was in this thread first. Naturally if someone posts after me in the thread, I am going to check to see the reply, and if I want to reply to that post, I am allowed to do so. If you have a problem with that, I suggest growing up or getting a hobby to take your mind off of the immense "bullying" that you feel subjected to.

MM for DBC for sure, he lost like 100 lbs.

It'll be Ejiofor's to lose.

The members of the forum previously associated with Awards Daily believe Brolin will be a supporting contender for Labor Day, but I find this strange considering the synopsis.

Matthew McCoughaney for Dallas Buyer Club is a guarantee. A lot of people are saying Hugh Jackmann gives his best performance in Prisoners and reviews for that are great, so that's a possibility.

I wish Ethan Hawke could get nominated for Before Midnight, but that won't happen. Especially since he probably left a bad taste in people's mouths with Getaway . If Julie Delpy could at least be nominated for that I'd be happy.

DiCaprio's performance in The Great Gatsby is very good, but I can't see it being Oscar-worthy, especially since I now like it. They'll pick some other shit like that banana boater in 12 Years A Slave.

Remember what Eddie Murphy said in Bowfinger:

Truth.

Right now, I see this race as Ejiofor versus McConaughey versus Redford.

I would not rule out Redford. He is as living legendary as living legendary can be, and this role will turn heads because of its challenging nature: almost no dialogue, an intense physicality, a one-man show, etc.

Then round it out with Bale and DiCaprio or Bale and Dern.

I dunno, Redford did not get outworldly glowing praise from Cannes.

Bale's got to get in, right?

I think Ejiofor will pull a Forest Whitaker/DLL with 12 Years a Slave, just sweeping everywhere.

Isn't his character a bit of an introverted observer of the spectacular, awful events going on around him? This is the idea I get from the trailer and early reviews, which is very different from, say, Daniel Day-Lewis playing Abraham Lincoln.

I would not so rapidly rule out Matthew McConaughey, solidifying his career second wind with a wildly Oscar friendly dramatic role, one requiring a physical transformation to play a real man.

But this is a black guy playing a slave. Let's say both are equally good - it is a more politically correct choice to vote for him.

Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave) is PHENOMENAL.

I haven't seen everything else, but I have a hard time not seeing this category be close to an absolute lock. He really is the center of this movie's buzz and eventual Oscar gold.

I watched the best actor winners from the past few years including DDL Lincoln, Jean Dujardin The Artist, Sean Penn Milk, Forest Whitaker The Last King of Scotland, Philip Seymour Hoffman Capote, Sean Penn Mystic River, Adrian Brody The Pianist, etc) and I think this may be one of my favorite acting performances since Russell Crowe in Gladiator.

If I could describe how the performance is, its very much like Adrian Brody's in The Pianist. A relatively unknown actor that completely sweeps everyone else's out of the water. Chiwetel puts in such an incredible performance. The TIFF audience broke into applause on and off three or four times even before the movie was over.

I can't even describe how good his acting performance is in this. It will definitely be one of the most talked about in the next year.

Nope, I didn't get that feel at all from the movie.

Leo Leo Leo.

I'm thinking:

Forest Whitaker
Chiwetel Ejiofor
Tom Hanks
Leonardo DiCaprio
Matthew McConaughey