I'm thinking eight nominees this year.

Lincoln
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Argo

If there is a 9th - Anna Karenina

Argo
Les Misérables
Lincoln
The Master
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Anna Karenina
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Promised Land

September predictions that are bound to be wrong:

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Flight
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Master
The Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Alt: Moonrise Kingdom, Life of Pi

Seems Toronto audiences love The Impossible. Might be a strong contender.

Toronto really seems to be brimming with winners so far...nothing seems to have really struck out or anything.

We'll have to see what happens with The Impossible but I do think Naomi Watts will finally get a second nomination.

Argo
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

What I think:

Moonrise Kingdom will be this year's Midnight in Paris.

Les Miserables will be Tom Hooper's Memoirs of a Geisha/Nine.

Apparently a very rough cut of Les Miserables just screened for the first time for Universal execs and they are really, really excited about what they are seeing. The orchestra doesn't record the score for another month so it will be a while longer before we have any news other than that on this one.

I believe Django Unchained could be this year's Memoirs of a Geisha/Nine.

I agree with this. It doesn't even look that good.

Kind of of have the same feeling about Django (even though I love QT).

Best Pic Noms

Argo
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Inglorious Basterds started off with mixed reactions as well. It turned out to be bloody brilliant.

Inglorius Basterds was the best film of 2009.

Why so skeptic then?

Roger Ebert:



http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/2012/09 ... er_is.html

I feel like Argo has the makings of a Best Picture winner. We'll see how the box office pans out.

So these seem pretty safe at this point:


The Master
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo

Really can't see either missing.

Next in line is Beasts of the Southern Wild which I give the edge over Moonrise Kingdom because it is more topical and will also likely score an acting nom.

Lincoln, Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained are obviously question marks at this point. Anna Karenina seems out judging by its solid, but far from great reception. This is not another Atonement or even another Pride & Prejudice.

I also can't see any movie other than Argo, The Master, Silver Linings Playbook or Lincoln winning. Les Miserables would have to be an absolute masterpeice for them to award another Tom Hooper film so soon. Remember, after Chicago musicals realy haven't fared that well Best Picture-wise. Sweeney Todd and Dreamgirls both missed out on a nom despite being considered strong contenders. Zero Dark Thrity also won't be awarded unless it is even better-received than The Hurt Locker. As with Les Miserables...two movies in a row for the same director? Nah.


The Master is a strong contender, but I simply don't think it will win. Not accessible enough. Silver Linings Playbook and Argo will both be big commercial hits and very accessible movies too. Lincoln, if merely very good (not necessarily great) will provide strong competition to them, though.

At this point to me it looks like the awards for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay will almost certainly all go to The Master/Lincoln/Argo/Silver Linings Playbook. Not sure which to what film.

I would throw 4 more films into at least having an outside shot at winning BP: Promised Land, Life of Pi, Django Unchained and Flight. Gus Van Sant, Ang Lee, and Quentin Tarantino are all "have a Best Picture winner in them at some point and time" candidates IMO and it wouldn't be out of the question for Zemeckis to get #2.

I'd even throw Moonrise Kingdom as having a huge longshot chance tbh. A better one than Beasts. I wouldn't completely rule out December coming around and all of a sudden it's grabbing a bunch of critic's lists momentum

Critics lists, maybe, though The Master will still rule those.

But Moonrise Kingdom's shot at winning BP at the Oscars is about the same as The Possession's. It will have no acting noms, not many tech noms to speak of and as far as artsy acclaimed directors go, this is PTA's year all the way.

The Master is hardly accessible. Silver Linings Playbook and Argo are far more accssible and mainstream films. There Will Be Blood is a more accsssible film than The Master. That's why I don't see it winning.

Silver Linings Playbook's most apt comparison from an Oscar perspective (at least to me) seems to be Jerry Maguire to me.

I expect a Best Picture nomination but not a win. Lawrence and the screenplay seem much more likely.

I wouldn't rule out Les Misérables as a winner just because Tom Hooper's last film also won because I don't believe this is regarded first and foremost as "a Tom Hooper film." He's not a strong enough directorial personality. He's not Scorsese or the Coens.

I do agree he can't win Best Director again so soon, however.

But when did this last happen? Francis Ford Coppola and The Godfather films?

Besides, as I said, after Chicago, things didn't look so good for musicals Oscar-wise.

So many attempts and none worked.

The Conversation was made in between the two, and was nominated for Best Picture but didn't win...

So yeah, I agree that Les Miserables is limited by Tobe Hooper. The Academy is very political and all about rewarding directors who are "due". And they haven't had very many BP/BD splits lately....

Life of Pi is getting really strong buzz from the NYFF - it officially premieres tonight.