Im suprise there isn't a thread for this, the PGA are are going on and now we will really see how the race is going.

Winners so far:
Motion Picture: Argo
Doc Feature: Searching for Sugarman
Reality Series: American Masters
Animated Film: Wreck-it Ralph
Comedy Series: Modern Family
PGA competition TV award: Amazing Race
Best Live Talk Show: Stephen Colbert

ohmygodohmygodohmygodohmygodohmygod

Animated Feature: Wreck It Ralph

Yay!

Ralph Wrecked It!

Argo wins

Argo wins it.

It's now odd-on favorite to win DGA as well, and I do believe it's the new frontrunner for Best Picture at the Oscars, even without a director nomination. The question is now who will win Best Director; it surely doesn't look like it will be Spielberg.

Holy shit is Argo overrated, lol.

I think Argo will go the way Apollo 13 and Lincoln will be like Braveheart.

My, my, my how the presumed mighty have fallen.

Argo is quickly losing affection with me. I am wanting to see the film less and less now.

Magnus is it too late to join your fuck Argo club?

Lincoln's chances of winning the Oscar seem to be fading more each day.

Out of the 5 candidates with Bigelow and Affleck out i think Spielberg is still most likely to win the best director oscar.
We will have to wait for SAG, that can change the race again.

This will be the first time in years that there will be a lot of drama going into Oscar night.

But the direction is one of the least talked about things that Lincoln is praised for, and it's not like Spielberg is due, exactly.

It's all very weird this year. Argo seems like it may do the impossible and win Best Pic without a Director nom.

It is interesting how Affleck's inexplicable (based on the precursors) directorial snub could very well propel Argo to a consolation prize in the top category.

This race will get even murkier if Silver Linings wins SAG tomorrow.

Kind of feeling Russell for Director, if Argo gets BP. lol

Russell winning Director without SLP winning Picture seems so strange, though?

I kind of want to throw my hands up in the air and stop speculating until February 24. lol

+1

ewwww if Argo somehow manages BP.

Well let's put it this way. We know SLP has a chance to win Picture and if it did, it would win Director almost for sure. This is because people usually vote the film they did in Picture, in Best Director

So this would presume that even if SLP loses Best Picture, it should still get a load of Best Director votes from all its Best Picture pushers, no? Russell winning Best Director would just come down to riding those BP/BD combo votes to a Best Director win, in the same way that he would've if SLP went all the way to BP, except Argo's weird snub in BD just leaves the red sea open for him SLP to take it. Or put it this way, logically BD should be LESS competitive than BP right now because the strongest(?) film got boned out of a BD nom. So should we say SLP, like everything else, has a stronger chance at BD than BP? Put it this way, if SLP got the most BP/BD votes and most of those went for it in BD AND it got the 2nd most "Argo/?" BD votes, it would run away with the BD award. The only way for Life of Pi to beat it is for it's "Argo/?" BD votes, to be so much greater than SLP's "Argo/?" BD votes, to make up the presumed difference between the amount of BP/BD votes SLP is getting vs the amount of BP/BD votes Life of Pi will be getting, which could be significant

Also logically if SLP is really close to winning both Best Picture and Best Director, losing the former to Argo, it should win Best Director, unless like ALL of the Argo voters went to Life or Pi or something in BD. OTOH all those vacant Argo voters, could just vote in BD what their 2nd favorite film was (again aligning BP with BD), which could give SLP or Lincoln a boost they don't even need if they already had a lot of BD votes

I'm wrong a lot but I feel like the best way to look at this if Argo gets BP, is BD being a BP sidepot between SLP, Lincoln and Life of Pi, and that the film with the strongest Picture support of the 3 is the heavy favorite for the same reason the BP winner is the heavy favorite to get BD every year (BP/BD votes aligning) - and right now I'm leaning SLP over Lincoln as the 2nd strongest BP film, Lincoln has just been getting its ass whooped too much

Finally SLP's direction is just flat out underrated. It IS a director's film with a legit auteur, and I bet the voters block respects it for that.

You know, Ang Lee might randomly win...watch out Algren...

You still haven't answered my quesiton Magnus.

I'd love it if he did.

I actually care little about the Oscars, though. I care more about the WOKJ awards. Afterall, I converse with the voters of those awards on a daily basis, why do I care what some Academy votes for?

It appears Affleck's director snub is just one of those rare anomaly or occurrences in the nomination process; after all, the director group is one of the smallest in the academy. If Affleck hadn't been snubbed, it would be a pretty clear-cut frontrunner, with SLP being the spoiler; in fact, Affleck would have been a bigger favorite than his film since I could see SLP winning Picture while him winning Director but not vise versa. However, even with his snub, it doesn't look like it's affecting its BP chance at all; if anything, it may be helping.

And I do think Lee still has a shot at BD; they may be treating it as a make-up opportunity for what happened before since voters' favorite and second-favorite (I assume most Argo voters would have Bigelow as their second choice) are not nominated. He does need to win BAFTA for it to happen though, unless Affleck just sweeps through all of them.