Let's face it, it's PTA's to lose.

Nominees I predict right now:

Paul Thomas Anderson
Steven Spielberg
Ben Affleck
Wes Anderson
Kathryn Bigelow or Quentin Tarantino

Right now:

Paul Thomas Anderson
Kathryn Bigelow
Tom Hooper
David O. Russell
Steven Spielberg

Alternates: Ben Affleck
Quentin Tarantino

I don't believe it's Paul Thomas Anderson's to lose. Maybe right now, but not in a spiritual sense. I could easily see them giving Spielberg a third Oscar if Lincoln connects, particularly, however strange this may sound, if Barack Obama wins the election.

I know I've been saying that lastyear...but I think this might be again time for a BP/BD split. I could see Lincoln or soemthing other Oscar-y take Best Picture home, but The Master win Best Director.

The Master strikes me as the kind of a movie that will be immensely beloved by certain yet limited audiences. I simply cannot see it winning Picture, apparently it is less accessible than There Will Be Blood. However, there might be the sense of rewarding PTA at last.

This is a very crowded category. Directors who can't, IMO, be 100 percent discredited from contention at this point:

Ben Affleck
Paul Thomas Anderson
Wes Anderson
Juan Antonio Bayona
Kathryn Bigelow
Michael Haneke
Tom Hooper
Ang Lee
David O. Russell
Steven Spielberg
Quentin Tarantino
Gus Van Sant
Benh Zeitlin
Robert Zemeckis

I don't believe there's a person on this list who anyone can say has ZERO chance of scoring a nomination, at least not without lapsing into strange Awards Daily type prejudices. And the list could maybe even be a bit longer; I didn't include, say, Sacha Gervasi (Hitchcock) or even Christopher Nolan.

Out of that batch, Benh Zeitlin really doesn't stand much of a chance. The movie's small and his a no-name...and the competition is way too tough for him. Even just looking at summer films...Wes Anderson is ahead of him.

He still has a small place in the conversation, though, because Beasts is so distinctive and such a directorial film (versus a writer's movie or a strict acting showcase). The Academy has honored youthful and/or "unknown" directors before.

Are you guys still predicting PTA for that trainwreck that everybody's already forgotten about?

I'm currently predicting:

Affleck
Bigelow
Hooper
David O. Russell
Spielberg

And then Ang Lee as the first alternate.

I'm thinking this goes to Spielberg or Affleck at this point, even if Les Mis wins Best Picture.

I agree.

So that's a no. Good.

Also, Spielberg? no way

Why not? Lincoln's reception is like 3495493583x better than War Horse's so far.

War Horse is a better movie than Lincoln. Spielberg shouldn't win for the awful last ten minutes alone.

Ang Lee's to lose.

I would love to see Lee win, but I am not predicting it.

I am predicting a picture/director split: Les Misérables wins the former, Spielberg wins this.

Lincoln's winning both at this point.

Spielberg
Affleck
O'Russell
Lee
Hooper or Bigelow

Sounds like the line-up to me.

I think Haneke could be a dark horse for a nomination. It's been ages since they nominated a foreign director for a foreign film, and Amour is likely to be Sony Classics's main push this year. It's a tough category, but he could slip in.

The problem is the late release. With a Dec 19th release for a foreign-language film, it will be just too late for enough people to see it. It might get into Best Original Screenplay, though. Now THAT is a weak category.

Affleck
Bigelow
Hooper
Lee
Russell
Spielberg

Who is going to miss?

It will become even more crowded if Django Unchained is a major critical and financial hit.

I believe Haneke was always a pipe dream.

Of course he was. Acclaimed or not, Haneke's film is released way too late in the US to be noted for something like Best Director in such a compettive year.

I think at this point, it's hard to imagine Bigelow missing. Her direction is subject of enormous praise in Zero Dark Thirty.

Looking at your list above, Hooper and Russell seem vulerable. Can't see Affleck miss. Argo is a huge hit and all the praise goes towards Affleck. Besides, they love actors/directors. Spielberg is a no-brainer. I believe Bigelow is in now.

But you know, they could just say Fuck Ang Lee. It is obvious the Academy doesn't liek him much. He was snubbed for Best Director nom for Sense and Sensibility, lost Best Director for Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon after winning the Golden Globe and DGA and Brokeback Mountain lost BP after having sweeped everything before the ceremony. Now Life of Pi is, above all things, a directorial achievement, so it would be very surprising, but it could happen.

Affleck and Spielberg are the only ones absolutely safe and locked up at this point.

ahem nolan....?

no?