Discuss.

My fuhhavorite category. Early predictions:

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

I'd probably have Meryl (Hope Springs) and Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina) next in line.

This is assuming Helen Hunt has been pushed to Supporting Actress.

Right now:

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Alternate: Maggie Smith, Quartet

Wait, was Helen Hunt absolutely confirmed as a supporting player?

Well, not absolutely, but most reviews and Oscar gurus have her there. It seems like it's one of those performances ala Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind where she could theoretically be in both categories, but Fox Searchlight will most likely make a play for Supporting so they can push Wallis in Beasts.

Trouble with the Curve is getting pretty good reviews so far, many of them complimenting Amy Adams. Given that this is a weak year, I would not be at all shocked if she pulled off an Actress nomination here in addition to Supporting Actress.

If the Best Actress race came down to Adams and JLaw

Hmm, is the year that weak?

We've got Keira Knightley, Naomi Watts, Quvenzhané Wallis, Marion Cotillard, Jennifer Lawrence and Meryl Streep. I'd place all of them ahead of Adams especially with her garnering support for The Master.

My current line-up:

Quvenzhané Wallis
Jennifer Lawrence
Meryl Streep
Keira Knightley
Naomi Watts

I'm afraid that Marion Cotillard will sadly experience the same fate as Javier Bardem for The Sea Inside.

I'm much less confident with Keira Knightley. Her reviews are good but certainly not sensational, and the reaction to the movie itself is pretty divisive so far.

I don't think it'd be a stretch for Adams, who the Academy obviously greatly likes, to be nominated in an American movie about baseball co-starring Eastwood that has good box office. Which we will see if it does this weekend, at least.

Well, maybe, but it just seems like a perfect part for Knightley and she'll be pushed hard for it.

Besides, even if she's out there's still Marion Cotillard to fill her spot.

And if Adams is nominated, it'll be quite bitter if she ends up with no wins again, but five noms. A new Kate Winslet.

She has to win one some day! If she ends this year with 5 nominations under her belt and no wins, she is officially the next Thelma Ritter.

I still say she should've won for The Fighter. But if that happened, we would have been deprived of Melissa Leogend's insane acceptance speech, so I'm unsure.

Yeah, Leo was good, but if you ask me, her performance was the worst out of the four main actors/actresses in The Fighter. Adams was better.

Though in that year, I'd probably given a slight edge to Hailee Steinfeld (who was totally a lead).

With the movie ending up rotten on RT, underwhelming at the box-office and Adams getting more attention for The Master, I really doubt she's in consideration now. It'll simply be forgotten by the time the awards season comes along.

At this point I am also wondering about Meryl Streep. Now that she has got her third Oscar maybe the pressure of recognizing her is much less and she'll need to deliver even more than usual to be nominated again. Unlike The Devil Wears Prada and Julie & Julia, Hope Springs is not a really big hit either, so...it might be forgotten as well. A Golden Globe nom is a given, but Oscars, I'm not sure.

All of that helps Knightley's chances at a nod.

The real battle will be between Naomi Watts and Jennifer Lawrence for the win.

Naomi Watts isn't going to win.

Why not? I mean I agree Lawrence is the frontrunner, but the rest...

Streep won't get her fourth Oscar now.
Wallis is too young.
Knightley will be happy about a nom, but certainly won't win.
Cotillard won't be given her second Oscar so soon and again for a foreign-language movie.

And Helen Hunt looks to go supporting...

Watts is a very respected actress with a great body of work. I don't see why she can't win.

I just believe Lawrence will steamroll the category. I don't sense The Impossible in general will connect to the degree it has to for Watts to be a contender for the win.

Maggie Smith in Quartet is the one person I could see "upsetting" Lawrence.

I don't disagree. I just think that IF anyone is to upset Lawrence, then it's Watts. The others are just out per default, IMO.

The Impossible is apparently just REALLY great:

http://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-impossible

We have to see how much of an impact The Impossible has. Its reception at Toronto was quite good, but unlike with JLaw and Silver Linings Playbook, Watts wasn't repeatedly singled out in reviews.

I agree Amy Adams is probably out of contention for Trouble with the Curve. She's very good in the movie, but it's also a pretty low-key performance and the movie isn't going to make waves either way.

I'm not seeing any other contenders emerge out of left field that could really do battle with Lawrence. All of the big Oscar movies still unseen by critics (Flight, Life of Pi, Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thirty) don't have leading actresses in them. Unless Chastain is a lead in ZD30, which I don't think is the case.

Could Anne Hathaway qualify for Lead in Les Miserables?

No way. It is a significant and powerful, yet also relatively small role.

From what I hear she'll only be in the movie like 30 minutes.

People have won Lead Oscars for half of that screen time.

Who won a lead Oscar with a 15-minute role? I know there's Anthony Hopkins in The Silence of the Lambs, but I believe he at least had 25 or so minutes.

Also, anyone who has read or seen Les Miserables wouldn't even start the whole "she might be lead"-argument. It's nonsense. It's not just the screentime, it's also the nature of the role.

Indeed. It's the perfect Best Supporting Actress role. It has a major impact on the plot and is touching/wrenching, but it is a limited role by its very nature.