Discuss.

Right now:

Russell Crowe, Les Misérables
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
John Goodman, Argo
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Alternates: Jude Law, Anna Karenina
Hugo Weaving, Cloud Atlas

Cloud Atlas will not get ANY acting nominations. There's not even a possibility of that happening.

Chances are you're right, but I enjoy playing with the idea for now. Particularly since nearly every review singles out Hugo Weaving's reportedly fantastic and electrifying performance as an evil nurse in one of the stories.

Yeah, but unless the movie is like one of the main contenders for the BP, actors in sci-fi/fantasy movies have no chance of even getting nominated. Look at LotR - 30 nominations and only 1 for a supporting role for McKellen. I wouldn't even entertain that idea as Cloud Atlas is definitely going to be a very divisive movie IMHO. It's more wishful thinking... But if that makes you happy

It's too bad they never nominated Viggo Mortensen for Rings.

This has 2nd Oscar for Philip Seymour Hoffman written all over it IMO

If DiCaprio is great and is nominated, I can't see him losing.

^ Yeah, if he's nominated here, he'll win.

Bullshit. You can't say this before Crowe and DiCaprio's performances have even been seen.

Well, of course I can say that, otherwise the whole predicing here doesn't make sense before Lincoln, Django, Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thirty and whatnot are out.

All right, you can say it, but it's absurd. Of course Hoffman will be nominated, but I see no reason to rule out Crowe or DiCaprio sight unseen.

Okay, for the picky ones, lemme rephrase:

chances are very good that PSH will win if placed in this category. Obviously he's not a lock yet, but the Academy likes him and this is a very meaty role (since he is actually lead alongside Phoenix).


I am willing to admit that DiCaprio has a decent shot if he is VERY good AND Django itself is very good.

But Crowe...no. I think the attention will be on Hathaway and Jackman, not leaving much for Crowe.

But Crowe's role is so dynamic.

The only way for that to happen is if Les Miserables goes all the way and scores many many wins.

However, I can't remember the last time a movie became the frontrunner for Best Picture when everyone just knew it had no chance to win Director. I mean even if the film is a huge box-office success and is in play for many Oscars, I'd still put Hooper distinctly behind PTA, Ben Affleck and probably Tarantino and Spielberg as well.

Tommy Lee Jones is getting RAVES for Lincoln, eclipsing even DDL in the reception. With the Master fading in the BP race, I would say TLJ might be the frontrunner now.

If Sony pushes him, Bardem might get in for Skyfall. No joke.

He definitely has an outside shot, but I'm not predicting him yet. It is a Bond movie, which will arouse certain prejudices among the older Academy voters.

I'm predicting:

Arkin (Undeserved, but it will happen)
Crowe
DiCaprio
Hoffman
Jones

And then De Niro as the first alternate.

Hmm, yeah, I'm not predicting Bardem just yet...but IF Skyfall becomes this huge $200+ million hit...it might happen. It is a VERY showy performance. If, say, Crowe disappoints and De Niro doesn't gain steam...he might get in.

Can't see either of Hoffman, Jones or DiCaprio missing at this point.

Bardem is not happening, like ever.

Not only is the category too packed (and in need of at least one newcomer) but no James Bond film has gotten an Oscar nomination above the coffee table awards (Art Direction, et al), ever.

I hope Arkin isn't nominated. He generates a few decent laughs, but not much else.

Goodman deserves it way more than Arkin, either for Flight or Argo.

I feel bad for Goodman. He is fantastic in both films, but both roles just seem a shade too small. In Argo, Arkin gets the heart to heart conversation with Affleck regarding fatherhood, which will put him right ahead of Goodman in voters' minds.

Besides, Arkin has Argo-fuck-yourself.

Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln