and to think she got her start on The Bill Engvall Show

I think Lincoln's best shot at winning will be Best Actor and Best Picture. That will allow a BP/BD split.

Lawrence is on fire. Good on her she deserves it.

I dunno, DDL winning Actor would be beyond phenomenal. Three leading Oscars out of five nominations? That's just so hard to imagine.

Agreed about Lawrence, she's great. Easily the best thing about The Hunger Games and what sets the movies apart from being just very generic young adult book adaptations.

RIGHT!?

Paul Thomas Anderson will not be denied this time.

I wrote an awards preview on my new blog a few days ago

http://jrodgermoviereviews.wordpress.co ... s/#more-54

"Labor Day is usually when Oscars/Academy Awards season unofficially starts, as screenings at Toronto and Venice’s film festival gets the early word out on prospective players. Here is my predictions for winners and nominees in the major categories:

Best Picture

Winner: Argo – It’s got the early raves, star power, material (international thriller+ Hollywood) and even a prediction by Roger Ebert that it will win Best Picture. With some major players like Lincoln and Les Miserables yet to be seen, Argo is the frontrunner.

Nominees:

Beasts of the Southern Wild – This year’s “little film that could” critical/independent darling. The passion system favoring #1 and #2 votes should play in its favor.

The Master – The likely critics’ choice for film of the year, but the Academy usually awards more accessible films for Best Picture. Expect it to feel like the 2nd or 3rd strongest contender most of the year.

Moonrise Kingdom – A very warmly received little film that like Beasts, should reel in some passion votes

Les Miserables – Along with “Life of Pi”, a film that has the widest range between “Best Picture winner” and “outright panned”. I have a hard time seeing Tom Hooper striking Oscar gold again after The King’s Speech. I’d say even if it disappoints critics, the size and ambition of the project makes it a likely candidate to sneak out a Best Picture nominee slot anyways.

Lincoln – The highest profile Oscar film, it’s easy to see Spielberg pulling a War Horse or Munich by making a good film, but not one inspiring enough passion to get past the nominee stage.

Promised Land – My pick for sleeper that could steal Best Picture. Gus Van Sant when he’s in Good Will Hunting/Milk form fits the Oscar’s tastes, it has a great cast, and it’s a topical liberal film to the present economy and the Wall Street vs 99% debate.

Silver Linings Playbook – Strong reviews, a likeable cast and romantic plotline and the Best Actress frontrunner makes it a great bet to land a nomination. I expect a run as strong as David O. Russell’s last film The Fighter

Best Director

Winner: Ben Affleck, Argo

Nominees:

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook


If Argo takes Best Picture, Affleck is a shoo-in to pick up the Director award as well. Anderson is the biggest threat in the race to take “Best Director, someone else gets Best Picture” honors, though it’d have to be a film like Les Miserables taking Best Picture in that case. Silver Linings Playbook looks extremely strong across the board, Zeitlin will carry that out of nowhere narrative to a strong showing and Wes Anderson will get people voting for him in Best Director if they do in Best Picture due to the film’s style.

Best Actor

Winner: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Nominees:

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Matt Damon, Promised Land

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Phoenix appears to give the performance of his life in the Master. I have a hard time seeing anyone else taking it with Day-Lewis looking for a 3rd Oscar, always an uphill climb. Hawkes’ role as a man with polio may be stiffer competition. Cooper can ride in on his strong film and good reviews, Damon if his film gets nominated for Best Picture is also a solid bet.

Best Actress

Winner: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Nominees:

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina

Meryl Streep, Hope Springs

Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Lawrence has emerged as the frontrunner after her raves out of Toronto. After a big year with the Hunger Games, a coronation is in order. Wallis is the other lock as a strong story at her young age and unknown background. Cotillard, Knightley, and Streep are former nominees who should fill up the spots in a weak year for the category

Best Supporting Actor

Winner: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Alan Arkin, Argo

Leonardo Dicaprio, Django Unchained

Hal Holbrook, Promised Land

Christoper Walken, A Late Quartet

This appears the closest thing to a sure thing victory in the acting categories. Philip Seymour Hoffman delivers what appears to be a titanic performance in the Master and it “fits” that he gets awarded Oscar #2 at this point in his career. Arkin should be a shoo-in as the most praised actor in Argo. Dicaprio’s juicy role in Tarantino’s latest and two veterans in Holbrook and Walken complete the group

Best Supporting Actress

Winner: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Nominees:

Amy Adams, The Master

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Frances McDormand, Promised Land

Sally Field, Lincoln

The Oscars crowning Hathaway has been a question of when and not if for some time. She’ll need Les Miserables to be good to lock it up, but as of now she’s clearly the frontrunner. Adams and Hunt are the other shoo-in noms right now, while McDormand and Fields are respected vets in films I nominated for Best Picture."

Though I wouldn't predict him just yet, Richard Gere seems well positioned as a potential spoiler in Best Actor, between strong reviews and a surprise breakout at the box office (It's looking to become one of Roadside's mot successful movies ever).

Looks like Silver Linings Playbook won the Audience Award at Toronto.

Past recipients of that:
2011: Where Do We Go Now?
2010: The King's Speech
2009: Precious
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2007: Eastern Promises

So it's a shoe-in for a nom basically. And if the pattern hold it's a winner!

Where Do We Go Now? is a random winner. It did almost nothing in general release.

Absolutely random, indeed.

Two comments regarding Shack's predictions:

- If Les Misérables is nominated for Best Picture and indeed Anne Hathaway wins Best Supporting Actress, I seriously can't see Hugh Jackman not even scoring a Best Actor nomination for playing the charismatic and intense and nuanced role of Jean Valjean. This is also a perfect chance for the Academy to recognize an actor they no doubt admire (he has even hosted the ceremony), but often "can't" honor because he's playing a superhero or training a robot to box.

- No faith in Zero Dark Thirty?

Bigelow rehashing herself? And it wasn't even that good the first time.

Fair play to you, but you might be allowing your (minority) negative opinion of The Hurt Locker to pervert your perception.

Well the second sentence yes. But the first one is spot on. It feels to me like she liked all those pats on her back and she decided to do ANTOHER Middle East movie. Yawn. Will she be Tyler Perry of Middle East?

Was John Ford the Tyler Perry of Westerns?

Maybe not the best comparison, but neither is yours. Directors can (should) revisit settings and themes. Most of the greats have.

A second Middle Eastern film from Bigelow is still interesting and not a trend. Though I do think it makes it's Oscar chances limited.

If Argo wins Best Picture, I think PTA could still win Best Director...

Argo was runner-up.

I wonder if either A Late Quartet or Quartet will undergo a title change.

I think we have two favorites for BP now:

Argo
Silver Linings Playbook

Until Lincoln, Les Miserables, Django, etc. get seen, those look like the best horses to ride

I do think that The Master is right up there too.

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook

are what I'd guess will be nominated so far. Though Moonrise Kingdom could get snubbed - Wes Anderson isn't as beloved as Woody Allen among old white men aka Oscar voters.

So, The Intouchables is France's official Best Foreign Language Film submission. Normally, I can't see it missing, but this is the most screwed up category at the Oscars, so..

I'm just gonna throw Looper out there. You never know...

January 10th is the new nomination day. Unless this has already been discussed.

I heard on the radio that this is 3 days or so before the GG awards. How will this impact the Oscar voting if any?