This one got skipped.

Early early early unfounded guesses:

Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Vanessa Redgrave might have a shot.

I've heard she's really good in both Coriolanus and even Roland Emmerich's Anonymous!

Carey Mulligan in Shame, please.

Maybe Judi Dench for My Week With Marilyn, because it's Judi Dench.

Would love to see Mulligan nominated. I believe she could pull it off.

Does Melissa McCarthy have a shot?

Oh goodness I hope so. I could see Bridesmaids scoring noms for her and screenplay, personally.

If Universal campaigns for her I could see it. Might help that she'll likely score a Golden Globe nomination. Would love to see her get in.

I also can't see Mulligan not making it.

Mulligan could go either way. Same for Fassbender in Best Actor. I see both getting in or neither, no other scenario. It all depends on how Shame is received, and if Fox Searchlight can find a way to frame a grim, depressing NC-17 (presumably) sex-addiction drama as the type of movie older Oscar voters want to watch.

Well, it could still go the way of Blue Valentine...

Yep. Or A Single Man.

A Single Man is a bad comparison. Moore, as wonderful as she was in the role, was barely in A Single Man, which was a full-on vehicle for Firth to give a tour de force. The Fassbender/Mulligan relationship and its complexity seems much closer to the heart of Shame.

Should Vanessa Redgrave win for Coriolanus, will she thank William Shakespeare or Edward de Vere?

I think Octavia Spencer is the frontrunner in this category right now. I love that.

melissa mccarthy is definitely going to get nominated, although that's silly

I would love if she got nominated, that would be so cool.

I'm still not predicting McCarthy. Every time an Apatow movie (or a broad mainstream comedy in the same general vein) is a big financial and word-of-mouth hit, people predict it will figure into the awards race, either in a supporting category for a scene stealer or a screenplay category. The 40-Year-Old Virgin, The Hangover, etc. And it never seems to pan out. I don't buy there's enough enthusiasm for her amongst the wealthy old farts who largely comprise the Academy. Winning an Emmy for a "meh" sitcom was her post-Bridesmaids prize.

But McCarthy has gotten much more individual attention than anyone else in an Apatow movie did (I mean, EW labeled her "The New Queen of Comedy," among others). I'm not predicting her at the moment but I think she certainly has a strong chance.

Who the hell thought Hangover or 40-Year Old Virgin actors were going to get Oscar nominations? That's silly

Lots of people were predicting The 40-Year-Old Virgin to sneak into Best Original Screenplay.

I just saw The Descendants and I don't understand the Shailene Woodley praise... I mean she was good but doesn't really deserve a nomination.

I wasn't blown away by the performance, but I thought it was good. She did a nice job embracing the bitchy intensity of the character while always letting a bit of light and vulnerability shine in, too. The big underwater cry helps her chances.

And she's hot and destined to be a big star, so the Academy will feel good giving her a nod early on.

Think it'll be The Help for Jessica Chastain.

Even though it should be Take Shelter.