EL&IC I think can get a huge backlash. Though not necessarily.

The early reviews for HP7.2 are outstanding. Will Academy feel it's time to let it in?

Nope.

Not for BP, but it'll be big in the techs department. I could see 5-6 noms.

cinematography
art direction
visual effects
sound (one or both)
maybe score

i can't see anything else for potter

Desplat scoring it, makes the score nom more likely. I know he also did Part 1, but then again he had another nom that same year.

All the ones above seem possble/likely. Makeup might happen if the year is weak.

It's too bad The Congress, Ari Folman's sci-fi follow-up to Waltz with Bashir, probably won't come out this year. Not that those Academy squares will get something that looks as batshit crazy as this:

I hope My Week With Marylin gets great reviews and Michelle Williams will score her third Oscar nomination.

Deathly Hallows: Part 2 better receive some kind of recognition. It's supposedly outstanding and it is outrageous that the series has never won an Oscar before.

Deservedly so.

Ralph Fiennes deserves some recognition at some point....

Have you seen it? It seems fantastic. Reviews are great and Elizabeth Olsen looks to have a really good shot at a Best Actress nomination. With Fox Searchlight behind it I believe you're right about it being a contender this awards season.

The Help: Reportedly Viola Davis is going to campaign for Best Actress, while Octavia Spencer will go supporting.

I've seen it, and while it's great I don't see it getting as much Oscar love as Winter's Bone. It's just as dark as Winter's Bone, and somewhat ickier. With a sliding scale of nominees I think Best Picture is out. Personally, I would say the highlight of MMMM has to be Sound Editing. Elizabeth Olsen was terrific, but I'll be very impressed if she receives a nomination, especially with the baggage of having tabloid sisters.

I don't see MMMM scoring anything other than a Best Actress nomination for Elizabeth Olsen, despite the fact it's far superior to Winter's Bone.

Oscar-caliber performances which will be forgotten:

Dominic Cooper, The Devil's Double
Will Ferrell, Everything Must Go
Brendan Gleeson, The Guard
Brit Marling, Another Earth
Ewan McGregor, Beginners
Mia Wasikowska, Jane Eyre



I hope they remember Christopher Plummer in Beginners.

They certainly better campaign for Plummer. He seemed to be a lock for Beginners earlier in the year. I still don't think it would be difficult for him to score a Supporting Actor nomination.

I am not expecting anything but a Best Actress nomination for Martha Marcy May Marlene. Though it is Fox Searchlight so they may be able to get it more.

Sasha Stone raved about The Descendants on Twitter last night after seeing it. Look like a strong contender.

The Ides of March, Carnage, and A Dangerous Method have all gotten polite but not overly enthusiastic responses, by comparison.

Wow, Shame sounds every bit as great as one would expect from the director of Hunger:

http://incontention.com/2011/09/04/revi ... more-42147

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy is earning very high marks now too. I have a feeling either this or Shame is winning the Golden Lion.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2011/sep ... spy-review

Or better yet http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/0 ... 49306.html

Shame isn't going to be an Oscar player, though. Sounds way too grim and filthy for their patrician/square tastes.

Okay, so by the sound of the early reviews, A Dangerous Method might very well be a contender in the acting categories, but doesn't look like a BP nominee at all.

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy is a bona fide BP nominee and will have the British crowds behind it.

Gosling should definitely get a Best Actor nod this year, unless votes will be split for Drive and The Ides of March. After having been snubed for Lars and the Real Girl (in favor of Johnny Depp's weaker performance in Sweeney Todd) and Blue Valentine some overdue factor (for a nom) is building up here as well.

Oldman should finally get a nom, too.