It's been my second most anticipated movie all year long (after Inception, which did pretty well for itself too. ) Much of t he competition seems very dark and unpleasant, Fincher just had his last movie get the most nominations of the year but not Best Picture, and most importantly, the early reviews are off-the-charts positive. It's possible this plays a lot less than the internet is expecting it to, but it is also looking to have some similarities to The Departed: ensemble drama opening in early October release date by a "due" writer and director getting some of the best reviews of their respected careers.

Who wants to say they had Best Picture nailed before October?

Members:
MovieDude
trixster
Magnus
MadGez
Shack
???

This would've been a lot more ballsy if you had started it before the reviews started rolling in.

I don't really see the similarities to The Departed, apart from release date. Scorsese was WAY more due and the ensembles aren't even comparable. Also, William Monahan wasn't exactly owed an Oscar.

Still, I'm in. The Academy has been going topical lately and this fits the bill. The King's Speech is really its only competition at this point.

What can even challenge it? It will be pretty boring if the eventual Best Picture winner is THIS obvious.

In.

In.

Cant see much challenging it. Maybe King's Speech and True Grit (pending reviews). But thats it.

I think The King's Speech winning against The Social Network would upset the internet community in the same was Shakespeare in Love winning against Saving Private Ryan did )and still does till today).


True Grit now can't win...not with the acclaim The Social Network is getting and not with the Coens' recent win. The King's Speech is the only remaining contender thanks to being the frontrunner for Best Actor and having the British fraction behind it.

Probably the closest thing to a lock this early, since ROTK

I wonder how general audiences will react to The King's Speech. Whether it will have a minor/modest run along the lines of Frost/Nixon or An Education, or whether it can find a wider audience, à la a Richard Curtis crowd pleaser.

Given the acclaim and likely many Oscar noms and a few wins...I'd say a The Queen-like run is likely.

Anyone want to join on this inevitable bandwagon?

I think while it has the best chance, its box office wasn't big enough to make it a near lock yet. If a film makes a huge dent at the box office in the next month and a half, I think a dark horse could win it. For example, if either The Fighter or True Grit overperform box office wise and are really embraced by moviegoers, I could see an upset.

With the Academy working so hard to get viewers, and seeing the massive effect that box office performance had on the Oscars last year (ex. expanding the best picture nominee list, Sandra Bullock getting best actress, The Blind Side getting best picture nomination, etc), big box office can still sway the competition for best picture.

Avatar - $750 million

The Hurt Locker - $16 million - won BP


'nuff said.

In

Call Levy!

On February 27th, The King's Speech is going to kick The Social Network into the gutter where it belongs.

No.

THE FIGHTER

Joining this exclusive club. Can I have a membership card?

The beter question now is:

How many Oscars will it win?

I'm thinking:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing

Don#t really see it getting more at the moment. Best Actor is possible, but against Firth more of a stretch. I suppose Best Score is a possibility too. That's about it.

It will win Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay. Two Oscars.

Oh, I disagree. I could easily see them awarding the overdue Fincher and Sorkin, but then giving BP to a more sentimental choice (The King's Speech, The Fighter).

Probably the closest thing to a lock this early, since... the Norbit incident.





(˙ʞɹoʍʇəu lɐıɔos əɥʇ oʇ sı ɹɐəq ıƃoʎ sɐ slɹıƃɯɐəɹp oʇ sı ʇıqɹou :ʇuıɥ)

I don't believe in the Norbit Effect, to be honest. Alan Arkin won because he's a respected veteran, and he was in a film nominated for Best Picture. Eddie Murphy lost because Dreamgirls lost momentum in general, and perhaps because he's a notorious a-hole.

And even if there is a Norbit Effect, Timberlake's involvement with Yogi Bear as a voice actor won't derail The Social Network. I still don't believe TSN has the Best Picture win sewn up entirely, but if it loses, it won't be because voters said, "Love it, but Timberlake did Yogi Bear, so I'm voting for The King's Speech."

..."shit, wait, The Warrior's Way. Now I'm voting for Black Swan! Wait, No Strings Attached! Damn it! Honey, has John Hawkes been in any crap movies lately, or can I vote for Winter's Bone?"

I don't agree with that at all. I think King's Speech has a much better job at winning BP than anyone does at taking fincher's overdue oscar. BD is a very tight race for Noms but Fincher has won already.

Let's not forget that the membership of the Academy doesn't entirely consist of teenage tweeters and twenty-something mirror gazers.

I don't see any film stopping it now. Besides sweeping the critics awards, the fact that Time gave Mark Zuckerberg the Person of the Year shows how relevant the story of Facebook is, and I don't believe he would have beaten WikiLeaks' Julian Assange if The film hadn't been made.