Which will win BP?

The King's Speech. I honestly think there will be a BP/BD split. If The Social Network comes out winning BP, I will be incredibly shocked.

THE SOCIAL NETWORK

The King's Speech, easily.

TOY STORY 3.. That's right.. I voted for neither of them and how big of an upset would it be if an animation film like Toy Story won it when everyone was expecting the other 2 movies you mentioned??? Big upsets have happened in the past you know...

Actually, I'm going to change my vote to RABBIT HOLE. Even though it's not nominated, I think it has a chance.

The King's Speech. Straight up.

awesome film = social network
asscar trash = king's speech

this is pretty obvious.

If the Academy was made up of 14 year olds, this would be no contest.

You're right!

I enjoyed both, so I don't really care which wins. If I step back and weigh each one by raw metrics then I'd give it to The Social Network.

The King's Speech had tight acting (I'd give the win to Firth and Rush easily, although I hear that Bale will win over Rush, which is a shame for such a great performance) and the Screenplay is great.

I think Fincher's work on The Social Network is much stronger all around... Editing, Cinematography, Music (Reznor will win and that's the only reason why I'm watching this year). The Screenplay is also fairly worthy and the ensemble works pretty well although nobody is a huge stand out. Fincher actually deserves the BD more than BP.

I've seen a total of 10 movies this year (seriously) and only 3 of the Best Picture nominees (these 2 and Inception) so I can't really comment on the rest.

Shame that Daft Punk and Tron got shut out of Music and effects.

King's Speech barely, but another interesting question is David Fincher truly a lock for BD if The Social Network doesn't win BP

I don't think he is regarded as that overdue by the older generation and the movie is regarded by most as more of a screenplay achievement than direction (I personally think the opposite).

Not having Nolan there helps his chances, but he will still be splitting some vote with Aronofsky and Coens among the younger voters.

I see no reason why Coens or Aronofsky would split the vote based on their age. We've been beating this "alternative" director drum since the 1990s. These guys are the establishment now.

King's Speech, cause of the stronger appeal in the acting branch, which makes up most of the members of the academy. Also, it has the most nominations, another plus to spread among non-acting members. Third, it's been gaining momentum throughout the season, especially at the box office, where it may outgross Social Network before the awards.

King's Speech unfortunately.

Best thing about it was Bonham Carter really. I'd rather see her win Supporting than Rush.

TKS now, but I need to see what SAG does.

Fuck it, I'm going to pull for the Social Network upset.

and in unshocking fashion the retards of the industry follow the asscars lead like the fuckin sheep that they are.

I agree on all accounts after just seeing The King's Speech, although I haven't settled on which film will win or which film deserves to win. I was on Team Social until I saw the King's Speech trailer, then I was feeling Speech fever. But now that I've seen both and enjoyed both, I'm not certain on the outcome, or which outcome I'm hoping for.

People seem to have forgotten Dr. Lecter's directive for posting in this thread.

Does anyone actually think THE SOCIAL NETWORK will win anymore?

Picture? I don't think so, it's pretty clear TKS has the most guild support which translates most accurately to AA. However I do believe Fincher still has a shot at BD, I see it at about 50/50.

I do.

I trois