Now this should be a very interesting race!

Pretty much given nominees:

Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)

Right behind:

Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Noomi Rapace (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - if eligible)

Anne Hathaway might get a nom for Love and Other Drugs. Carey Mulligan still has somewhat of a shot for Never Let Me Go. Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole is a dark horse at the moment. And then there's Helen Mirren and The Tempest and Imelda Staunton in Mike Leigh's new film.


Probably this year's most interesting race.

Bening
Kidman
Lawrence
Mulligan
Portman

Two other strong candidates:

Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
Lesley Manville, Another Year

I'm sure Manville will go supporting.

Every prediction so far (AwardsDaily, InContention, TheFilmExperience, etc.) has her listed as Lead though.

Maybe they can make up for snubbing Hawkins last time.

It's one of those unredeemable things Oscar does from time to time.

Looks like Diane Lane has a shot with the first batch of reviews Secretariat is receiving.

The only movie this fall that I could see get "Blind sided" is The Tourist. Angelina Jolie could be up for a nod if the box office is huge (which I expect it to be).

She's a dark horse right now, but a movie with Depp and Jolie opening in December mustn't be underestimated!

I highly doubt it. The film seems way too light. And there's her British accent...

People highly doubted my last best actress prediction at first, look how that turned out!

Granted, I don't think Jolie will win or anything, but I think she might be able to sneak in there for a nod...

I think I would be forced to kill both Bullock and Lane.

Yeha, Lane looks really good for a nom at this point.

So...


Lane
Bening
Portman
Kidman
Lawrence


Alt.: Rapace

I still doubt Lane. It's too calculated--too "2010's Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side."

Williams will get in to the five.

Annette Bening
Anne Hathaway
Nicole Kidman
Natalie Portman
Michelle Williams

This will be the five women nominated. That is all.

Lane ain't in. Secretariat ain't big enough or liked enough.

Yeah, no way Lane gets in. Not even sure where Hathaway comes in. I love her, but Love & Other Drugs does not in any way, shape, or form look like an Oscar movie.

Lawrence didn't impress me that much in Winter's Bone so I could go for her being left out. Would like to see:

Annette Bening
Nicole Kidman
Michelle Williams
Natalie Portman
Noomi Rapace


Would be cool to see Carey Mulligan get a nomination, but I don't see that happening.

Manville needs to go supporting. It'd be so foolish not to.

Yeah, after seeing the movie, it's pretty much a supporting performance.

I think it's safe to say that Lawrence, Bening and Portman are locks in this category?

But the remaining two spots are kinda all over the place.

We've got:

Hailee Steinfield - Lead or SUpporting. She got a BAFTA nom for Lead, but went supporting pretty much everywhere else.

Julianne Moore - got a nomination from the Globesa (Comedy/Muscial) and nominated along with Bening at the BAFTAs

Michelle Williams - Golden Globe nom, BFCA nom

Leslie Manville - another case of category confusion, she won NBR for Best Actress, but has been Supporting almost everrywhere else

Noomi Rapace - BAFTA nom and BFCA nom

Hilary Swank - an odd SAG nominations

Nicole Kidman - SAG nom, BFCA nom and Golden Globe nom - but she missed BAFTA


It's an interesting race at this point for the final two spots. Kidman looks like the safest and Steinfield will probably go Supporting. Right now I'm thinking Williams for the 5th spot, but a surprise nod for Moore would not shock me.

Bening
Kidman
Lawrence
Portman
Steinfeld

Runners-up:
1. Williams
2. Swank
3. Moore or Rapace

Williams better get in. Would be terribly disappointed if she didn't. I'm hoping category confusion will keep Steinfeld out of Best Actress. I could easily see Moore getting in though. And as much as I loved KIDS, I'm hoping it goes to Michelle instead. I'd be very sad if neither Ryan or Michelle got in.

Michelle Williams not getting in Best Actress would be a catastrophe. She was the heart and soul of BLUE VALENTINE.

http://www.theatlantic.com/culture/arch ... ons/69968/

This gives me confidence that Michelle Williams could very well make the cut.

When filling out their ballots, nominators rank their preferences from 1 to 5 (or in the case of Best Picture, from 1 to 10). This doesn't mean the ballots are weighted, with a voter's top-ranked film getting 10 points and the next pick getting nine points. It means academy members are essentially voting for one movie; each member's ballot is counted towards one film, their number one vote. If that film receives the fewest amount of number one votes, then it's the second pick that counts, and so on down the ballot so that the ballot is attributed to exactly one movie or performance.

Therefore, in order to be nominated, a film or actor doesn't need to be considered "good" by everybody, but instead "the best" by a few. A faction of passionate voters helped films like The Reader and A Serious Man and dark-horse candidates like Melissa Leo for Frozen River and Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart win nominations. It also explains why mass appeal movies—most famously The Dark Knight—miss the cut. Christopher Nolan's 2006 film may have appeared on every voter's nomination ballot, but perhaps further down in the rankings. Everyone might have thought it deserved a nod, but it was not their top pick of the year.

This year, Blue Valentine and its leads Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams could benefit from this rule. The film itself hasn't had a huge box-office take, but those who have seen it are rapturous in their praise, particularly for the gutting performances by Gosling and Williams. Similarly, Mike Leigh's Another Year hasn't had a huge audience, but the film and its star Lesley Manville are loved by the few who saw it. The gritty indie Winter's Bone is considered a dark horse for a Best Picture nod, despite the fact that it doesn't boast the popularity of The Social Network and The King's Speech, because it has such an enthusiastic block of voters supporting it.


I just can't wait for the nominations to get announced. The suspense is killing me. All I care about is that Michelle Williams is nominated.