Who's in with me?


Why? Well, that's why:

- Even though there's this "no nom for the next film after the win"-curse, Scorsese will break it (not counting Shine a Light which is a documentary). His last three films were all nominated for Best Picture and his last two won 9 Oscars in total.

- Same release date as The Departed

- With his increasing popularity, Scorsese's name is becoming more and more of a draw, so we can expect solid box-office as well (I see $60+ million at least)

- Movie is based on the novel by the author of Mystic River (6 noms) and Gone Baby Gone (1 nom)

- Despite its psychological thriller thematic, making it look not very Oscar-baity, the ten nominees change allows for less conventional films to enter the playfield as well

- It's Paramount's biggest shot at the Oscar. They will push it hard

Don't forget Leo.

This is basically a no-brainer unless Scorsese's roll stumbles. 10 nominees? C'mon now.

You want something ballsy from WB? A Harry Potter nom. The new stills are pretty stunning, and I can see a Cinematography nom.

Don't forget, even mighty Clint failed to get a BP nom after his win (near miss, though....Flags missed, Iwo Jima got in).

Having two companion films in a year of little commercial success makes one nomination a miracle. I'm pretty sure Shutter Island is VERY different.

Eh, I'm doubting it. I feel like this movie's gonna be great, but I think now that Scorsese's got his Oscar, he doesn't care about making movies that the Academy likes... and this movie doesn't seem like it wants to win any Oscars. And ten nominees or not, I can't remember the last time a film like that even got close to nominated.

Shutter Island looks a little bit like Silence of the Lambs by way of The Departed, with the setting of One Flew over the Cuckoo's Nest to boot. It's a period piece, it's Marty, great material, and seems right up the alley of the Oscar voters who have gotten many a shockingly violent film all the way to to the gold.

Ive thought it was no-brainer, even as early as last year. We've known all along the source material was wacky. I've called it Cape Fear Redux since the start.

With 5 nominees, maybe there was an outside chance it would miss. But its in with 10. Scorsese has enough fans voting to push it in.

If the film is no good, it'll suck that he gets a back to back to back to back nom with a shitty film. But whatever.

I think everyone has it wrong.

We're thinking that this is going to allow a wide range of non-traditional pics into the race- and in the case of Up, yes it will.

But the extra slots are surely just going to be for the failed end-of-the-year prestige pics. We're not going to be filling the ten with Iron Mans and Star Treks and In Brugeses. It's gonna be the Revolutionary Roads, the Memoirs of a Geishas, the Flags of Our Fatherseseseses. In other words, the last things we need.

I've been saying that all along.

Instead of one Reader, we'll get 3-4.

Can't wait!

It'll probably be a mix of both, if we look at the alternatives of the last several years.

So... you're saying Shutter Island will get nominated?

Anyways, I wouldn't be shocked if they just inserted some blockbusters. Wasn't it pretty widely stated that the only reason Waltz with Bashir got nominated for Best Foreign film was because the Oscars felt people wanted it to be? Or am I just talking bullshit?

No, I don't think Shutter Island will be nominated.

I fear that yoshue is correct and that it will be a collection of wannabe indie films with crying pandas about lame subjects instead of vulcans and wizards.

Ninja wizards?

You speak of 3 Ninja: High Noon at Mega Mountain?

Would it have had a chance if there had been ten nominees back then..? We'll never know...

The problem is with 10 nominees, little track record, and a lack of films that really fit within the criteria of what we consider "Oscar films" (maybe 6 strongish nominees a year and we argue over 2-3 of them) the field is so wide open that it's going to be hard to gauge until we start hearing from passionate Oscar members.

This is really the year where a small group could (for example) take a film that would have had a strong racial aspect, like Hustle & Flow, and put it in the top 10 if they felt like. Or a foreign or religious film or even a documentary.

Up is pretty certain, but pretty much any 80%+ RT film that comes out in Oct-Dec could be considered a contendor for the prize.

Which is why the Academy has not made this very fun. The field is too wide now and there's (IMO) very little to debate.

In all seriousness...do you think Memoirs of a Geisha would have gotten a nom with ten possible nominees? I mean it had less than 40% at RT if I remember correctly. On the other hand, it still got six noms and three wins.

Yes, it almost certainly would have. They spent a lot of money on that campaign.

Which is why it's all up in the friggin' air.

Especially since the studios didn't see this comin' so now they have to pimp 3-4 additional pictures.

I think they'll be far less to debate in terms of who's getting nominated. But once the 10 are chosen, it should be pretty interesting and cutthroat.

Oh yes. But all of our fun in the past has been "Who are the 5", and it's usually fun because we are all close except in a couple of instances. Post announcment is usually a lot less fun. Maybe that will flip this year.

It has to flip, I think most everyone will guess at least 50% of the nominees if not more. With the Oscars being pushed back because of Vancouver 2010, I think that'll add more time and fuel to the who will win hysteria.

The film that took home the guilds? The box office smash? The critic circles. I think with 10 films in the running, we may see the love spread out a bit more in terms of precursors. I think the case of a Slumdog/Schindler's List repeat this year is slim.