Announcement starting in a few minutes


Best Picture (Drama)

Up in the Air
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious


Best Picture (Comedy Musical)

(500) Days of Summer
The Hangover
It’s Complicated
Julie & Julia
Nine


Best Director

James Cameron (Avatar)
Clint Eastwood (Invictus)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)


Best Actor (Drama)

Colin Firth (A Single Man)
Tobey Maguire (Brthers)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)


Best Actress (Drama)

Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria)
Helen Mirren (The Last Station)


Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)

Joseph Gordon-Levitt ((500) Days of Summer)
Matt Damon (The Informant!)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine)
Robert Downey Jr. (Sherlock Holmes)
Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)


Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)

Julia Roberts (Duplicity) - WTF?
Sandra Bullock (The Proposal)
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Meryl Streep (It's Complicated)
Marion Cotillard (Nine)


Best Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
Matt Damon (Invictus)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Woody Harrelsson (The Messenger)
Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)


Best Supporting Actress

Julianne Moore (A Single Man)
Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
Penelope Cruz (Nine)
Mo'Nique (Precious)


Best Screenplay

It's Complicated
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air


Best Score

Up
The Informant!
Avatar
A Single Man
Where the Wild Things Are


Best Song

"Cinema Italiano" Nine
"I Want to Come Home" Everybody's Fine
"I Will See You" Avatar
"The Weary Kind" Crazy Heart
"Winter" Brothers


Best Animated Film

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Up
Coraline
The Princess and the Frog


Best Foreign Language Film

Baaria
The Maid
A Prophet
The White Ribbon
Broken Embraces

Announcement started!

Best Score:

Up
The Informant
Avatar
A Single Man
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Foreign Language:

Baaria
The Maid
A Prophet
The White Ribbon
Broken Embraces

Ladies and Gentlemen, just to remind you, 5:37 is when we are going live again.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Penelope Cruz - Nine
Anna Kendricks - Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Mo'nique - Precious based on bla bla bla
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Wacky noms in the second half

Lotsa love for Inglourious Basterds. That will increase its Oscar nomination chances.

Avatar did also great, as it was never a contender for acting nominations. It only missed screenplay, but the same thing happened to TITANIC at the Oscars and we all know how that ended.

I don't think there is much need to increase, heh. I has been in there for a while.

And yeah...I'll be very surprised if Avatar scores a Screenplay nom at the Oscars.

I meant apart from Waltz that is probably a lock and picture because of the 10 pick this year. Now, it may be among the 5 favorites.
It will also increase the tech chances (cinematography, editing, costume, art direction?)

Hmm, yeah. It won't win anything major other than Sup. Actor, though.

Frankly, I am susprised they didn't give Basterds more acting noms. I expected Laurent to get one too and maybe even Brad Pitt.

Great for JGL but where is Zooey? That's a shame.

That Julia Roberts nom is a joke. Ugh, just horrible.

Happy with the double noms for Meryl and Damon.

A bit surprised that Ponyo missed out on animated though.

My predictions:

Best Picture (Drama)

Up in the Air


Best Picture (Comedy Musical)

Nine


Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)


Best Actor (Drama)

George Clooney (Up in the Air)


Best Actress (Drama)

Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)


Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)

Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)


Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)


Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)


Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)


Best Supporting Actress

Mo'Nique (Precious)


Best Screenplay

Inglourious Basterds



Best Score

The Informant!


Best Song

"Cinema Italiano" Nine


Best Animated Film

Up


Best Foreign Language Film

The White Ribbon

Strange that Eastwood, Freeman, and Damon would all get noms for Invictus, but not the movie.

I'm out of the prediction game, but Sandra Bullock (America's Sweetheart) appears to have landed a role to net her the big prize.

Very happy to see Emily Blunt get nominated for The Young Victoria.

Nice for (500) Days of Summer, but it would have been better if Zooey was also nominated. She could have taken Julia Robert's place.

Another one who could have taken Julia's place, or one of the Meryl spots (Don't get me wrong, I love her, but she doesn't need two spots in the same category - pick one people - preferably Julie & Julia), is Amy Adams for Sunshine Cleaning. She was wonderful in it and the movie can't even get any love from the Globes.

Nice for A Single Man. Also pleased about the Basterds love. The only disappointment is that Laurent didn't get a nomination. I thought she was one of the best parts about the film.

Was also hoping McAvoy could score a nomination for The Last Station, but alas that didn't happen. He is always shut out.

Anyway, nice, if predictable noms.

Happy for the strong showing of The Hurt Locker. This is one organization that could have shunned it. Not surprised for Avatar and most other noms. An Education got hurt pretty badly today, even missing supporting actor. Up in the Air is still the frontrunner to win Drama, especially with its double noms in supporting actress. And I predicted Julie Roberts.

The Lovely Bone is officially dead after both BFCA and GG ignored it for the big ones; Nine is still troublesome as it missed director and screenplay (and only one supporting actress nom) from the organization that was expected to favor it the most; Invictus slipped a little more, as it doesn't appear to have much passion behind it, but it does still have Eastwood.

My ranking for BP contenders at the moment:

1. Up in the Air
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Avatar
4. Inglourious Basterds
5. Precious
6. Up
7. Invictus
8. A Serious Man
9. An Education
10. The Messengers/Nine/one of the others

Thouh didn't Nine get pretty much the very same nominations as Dreamgirls, only switching Best Supporting Actor for Best Actor?

That's true.

Predictions:

An Education I've questioned on-and-off. Avatar is in, definitely, though I'm not predicting Cameron currently, though Lee Daniels is looking weaker by the minute. Inglourious Basterds is definitely in. If Nine doesn't win Comedy/Musical, it's out.

Also, District 9 keeps popping up in Screenplay. Cool. I'm starting to wonder if it can grab the #5 adapted slot.

The musical/comedy nominees are embarrassing across the board.

I downloaded '(500) Days of Summer' and stopped watching it after 15 minutes. So you may be right, yoshue.

very expected for the most part, but then you've got Tobey Maguire entering the Best Actor race, It's Complicated getting Comedy/Musical and Screenplay?! nominations where A Serious Man misses out, and District 9 pulling off a Screenplay nod.

predictions:

Best Drama
Up in the Air

Best Comedy/Musical
The Hangover

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker

Best Actor in a Drama
George Clooney - Up in the Air

Best Actress in a Drama
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side

Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical
Robert Downey Jr. - Sherlock Holmes

Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical
Meryl Streep - Julie and Julia

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique - Precious

Best Screenplay
Up in the Air

Best Score
Avatar

Best Song
"Winter" Brothers

Best Animated Feature
Up

Best Foreign Film
The White Ribbon

My wrap-up I wrote for TCC:


THE WINNERS:

The Hurt Locker – Its train of success continues. It won Best Picture in New York and San Francisco. This makes it one of the relatively rare cases in which Los Angeles and New York picked the same feature for Best Picture. The only other occasions these decade were when Sideways and Brokeback Mountain both won the NYFCC and the LAFCA awards for Best Picture. Both did not go on to win Best Picture, though but they did get major Oscars in categories like Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Director. However, The Hurt Locker’s monumentum goes even further. It was nominated at the Golden Globes (which is unusual for a movie this small), the BFCA. The Southeastern Critics gave it the #2 spot of the year. In fact, the only critics circle it missed out at was the Indiana one but then again – it’s Indiana, so it doesn’t mean much for the race. Even more impressive is the track record for Kathryn Bigelow who won at all aforementioned critics awards and was nominated for the Globe and the BFCA. The only downer for the film was Jeremy Renner missing a Best Actor (Drama) nomination from the HFPA in favor of Tobey Maguire in Brothers but then again the Globes are known for going for big names so this is not really shocking. Right now The Hurt Locker is still the biggest winner of the season.

Avatar – It didn’t score major critics awards but then again, no sane person really expected that. However, it was nominated by the BFCA for Best Picture and received a total of nine BFCA nominations, pretty much sweeping the techs. It also managed a Best Picture (Drama) nomination at the Globes. Even more impressive, however, are the Best Director nominations for Cameron at the BFCA and the Globes considering there are only five of them. Granted, Peter Jackson also received a Best Director nomination from the HFPA back in 2005 but the film itself wasn’t nominated as it is the case with Avatar. Sure, Avatar missed the Screenplay nominations at the Globes and the BFCA but then again, Titanic didn’t get a Screenplay nomination at the Academy Awards either and that didn’t exactly hurt it. It was always known and expected that these film will live through its visual storytelling not the plot itself.

Up in the Air – After a rather disappointing Sunday the film rebounded with Best Picture wins from the Southeastern Critics and, um, Indiana. Far more important, however are its eight nominations at the BFCA which include Ensemble and Editing next to the expected biggies and six Golden Globes nominations, more than any other movie this year. What makes it an even bigger winner at the Globes is that all six nominations are major one: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, two Best Supporting Actress noms and Best Screenplay. Moreover, Clooney started off his relative dominance over the Best Actor category with wins in New York, Indiana and with the Southeastern Critics. Only in San Francisco he unsurprisingly lost to Colin Firth.

Inglourious Basterds – These was truly one of the biggest winners of the last two days. Scoring four Golden Globes nominations, including Best Picture (Drama), Best Director and Best Screenplay and 10 (!) BFCA nominations where it sweeped most of the tech nominations as well. Waltz is also pretty much uncontested at this point, having won all awards of those above, except for San Francisco. However, San Francisco also awarded it a Best Original Screenplay win. Now the Globes’ love for Basterds was an expected one. They already showered both Kill Bill films with nominations and Basterds is a pretty international flick. But the BFCA nominations show that it’s serious business.

Julie & Julia – This is mainly for Meryl Streep who has been winning left and right. She won New York, San Francisco, Southeastern and placed second in Indiana. Her double-nom at the Glbes show that she is really really getting overdue at this point.

The Messenger – Considering the film is tiny, Woody Harrelson’s nomination at the Globes is really a biggie. He is also the only real contender at the Oscar, aside from Waltz at the moment (though Waltz is still miles ahead of him). In another surprise, the film managed a Best Actor nomination and a Best Director nomination in St. Louis. If the film were somewhat bigger and it weren’t for The Hurt Locker in the same year, I’m sure this would be a much bigger player overall.

The Fantastic Mr. Fox – In a surprising turn of events it won Best Animated Film in New York and Indiana (where it was also runner-up for Best Picture and Best Director) and was runner-up in the Southeastern Critics awards (also runner-up for Best Adapted Screenplay there). Moreover, it won Best Adapted Screenplay in San Francisco and was nominated in that category by the BFCA. That’s quite a lot of support for an animated film that is not made by Pixar.


THE LOSERS:

An Education – Carey Mulligan needs the critics awards for her performance in order to stay even with Meryl Streep considering the film is pretty small and she’s really young. However, she’s not really getting much. Of course she got the obligatory nominations at the BFCA and the Globes but Streep won almost everywhere so far with Mulligan still only having her NBR win, her Washington win and a win in Indiana. However is the film itself that is also losing a lot of steam. The BFCA gave it four nominations (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor) but the Golden Globes almost completely shut it out with the exception of a Best Actress (Drama) nomination for Mulligan. No Screenplay, Picture or Supporting Actor nods there. This is particularly surprising since the Screenplay category now has nominees like District 9 (not nominated for anything else) and It’s Complicated (the hell?). With the film’s international flair it is a pretty huge hit.

Up – It’s weird to say that about a Pixar film but this is the first really well-reviewed Pixar film (i.e. not Cars) that is not sweeping Best Animated Feature everywhere. It lost in Los Angeles (which gave Best Picture to WALL-E last year) to The Fantastic Mr. Fox and placed there as a runner-up and it also lost in New York and Indiana to The Fantastic Mr. Fox and in San Francisco to Coraline. It’s somehow funny that in the first year in which a Pixar film will most likely be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars it might actually miss a Best Animated win.

Bright Star – The film was out a while ago, however Abbie Cornish stuck around a bit. However no BFCA nomination and no Golden Globe nom means she’s out. So far Cornish wasn’t able to score anywhere and even with the BFCA awarding plenty of technical categories, the only nomination that Bright Star could garner was for Best Costume Design.

A Serious Man – Missing Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) was a big upset, especially since the HFPA nominated Burn After Reading, O Brother Where Art Thou?, The Man Who Wasn’t There for Best Picture. A Serious Man therefore ended up with only one nomination and that for Michael Stuhlbarg for Best Actor (Comedy/Musical). Missing Best Screenplay was another biggie since it did so against It’s Complicated of all films… Moreover, while scoring several nominations, A Serious Man wasn’t able to win any big awards from the different critics’ circles either. At the BFCA it was the Best Picture nominee with the least overall nominations as it scored only two whereas all other nine BP nominees got at least four each. The only real hope the film has left now is Roger Deakins who at least was able to score a win in San Francisco.

The Lovely Bones – It’s out. Dead and buried. A few nominations for Stanley Tucci and a few techs aside, it got nothing and is now out of the race. The lack of any major Golden Globes nominations was the final nail in its coffin.

Star Trek – Its biggest recent victory was the Best Ensemble nomination by the BFCA but no placement among AFI’s Top 10, Southeastern’s Top 10 or BFCA’s ten Best Picture nominees mean that its hoped for Best Picture nominee is mostly wishful thinking.


THE IN-BETWEEN:

Invictus – Invictus is really the definition of the in-between here. It is difficult to call it a loser because it did score most important nods. It got four nominations by the BFCA – Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor – as well as three Globes noms for Eastwood, Freeman and Damon. However, in a very surprising turn of events it was shut out for a Best Picture (Drama) nod at the Globes in favor of smaller-scale and America-centric films like Precious and The Hurt Locker. It also failed to win any major critics awards after it got the NBR win for Eastwood and Freeman. The film is still there but its strength is mostly based on its status. It doesn’t have any passionate support behind it.

Precious – Six nominations at the BFCA boosted the film after a weak Sunday and it surprisingly landed a Best Picture (Drama) nomination at the Globes. Mo’Nique continued its Best Supporting Actress sweep through all of critics’ associations. However, the film missing a Best Screenplay and a Best Director nod at the Globes is a little troubling. Moreover, Precious’ failing to win any Best Picture critics awards is a bit unexpected and it has fallen clearly behind Up in the Air now.

Nine – Mediocre reviews keep coming in but the Globes and the BFCA are keeping the film alive. It is not scoring any critics wins whatsoever but it managed ten nominations at the BFCA (tied Inglourious Basterds for most nominations there) and five nominations at the Golden Globes. However, the Globes always favored musicals (The Producers got four nods there and Dreamgirls as well as Sweeney Todd both won Best Picture there over future Oscar nominees like Little Miss Sunshine and Juno respectively). What’s more important to note is that Nine missed Screenplay and Director nods at both, the Globes and the BFCA. It now really needs a Screen Actors Guild Best Ensemble nod to stay alive and in the Top 10.

District 9 – The Best Adapted Screenplay nomination at the BFCA was a nice surprise, the Best Screenplay nod at the Globes a huge shock (since the category isn’t split into Original and Adapted there). Not sure how much it means for the film’s potential BP chances should Nine drop out afterall but it at least shows that the film is being remembered and honored.


What does this mean for the Oscars overall:

- The Hurt Locker is the clear frontrunner for Best Director and now needs to win something really major (like BAFTA or the Globe) to become a serious contender for Best Picture.
- Mo’Nique and Waltz have their awards pretty much locked up
- Up in the Air keeps its Best Picture frontrunner status while Precious keeps slipping more and more
- Avatar is now pretty much a lock for a Best Picture nomination – to those who have doubted it before!
- Streep and Clooney are still frontrunners albeit not completely invulnerable.
- Woody Harrelson is the solid #2 choice for Best Supporting Actor
- The Fantastic Mr. Fox might score more than just a Best Animated Picture nod
- The Best Director line-up of Tarantino, Eastwood, Cameron, Bigelow and Reitman is looking pretty solid right now with Lee Daniels the only possible spoiler.
- Up is not a lock for a Best Animated Picture win