...it's District 9 (I'm not counting Up).

I'm not predicting it to get in the ten, but it's really the only one I can see doing it right now. Reasons being:

a) It can manage to be as strong in the techs as Star Trek and Avatar (in nominations, anyway). I can see a Screenplay nomination come about a lot easier for D9 than either of them, it has about as good a shot at Editing if not better than Avatar's.
b) It won't be the umpteenth Star Trek film.
c) It has had pretty widespread praise. At least a good portion of Avatar's reception will be in mockery of it. District 9 hasn't had that problem.

Oh, and Where The Wild Things Are isn't getting nominated with an $80-ish million total.

I see Avatar getting in over District 9. Avatar will become a phenomenon when it's released and will see great success critically and with the public. The Academy expanded the best picture nominations to 10 in part because of what happened last year with the Dark Knight and Wall-E. Avatar will be that massive blockbuster that will be embraced this year.

No. I really have nothing against it and admire James Cameron's work, but it WILL be divisive.

that may happen, but when you've got ten slots, divisive films can get in. and the buzz on it's going to be so hot throughout that final month before noms go in that after that trailer, i really doubt it doesn't get in unless it bombs.