Princess And The Frog is sitting pretty. By virtue of being a musical, it could have more overall nominations than Up. It's limited theatrical run in NY and LA is sure to break the bank in November.

It's full trailer will run in front of Up and here are some character designs









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By The Numbers:

Pixar:

Up is Pixar's 10th feature film.
Pixar has been nominated for 39 Oscars (8 of which were for short films).
Pixar has won 9 Oscars (3 of which were for short films)
Since its inception, Pixar has won 4 out of the 6 times it was nominated for Best Animated Film
Pixar films have nominated in Best Original Screenplay 5 times, 4 of which where over the past 6 years.
Pixar's last two films had record-breaking Oscar nominations for the studio. Ratatouille, 5 nominations. WALL-E, 6 nominations.
Wall-E also managed to win Best Picture at a number of critic awards: Boston Society of Film Critics, Chicago Film Critics Association, Central Ohio Film Critics awards, Online Film Critics Society, and Los Angeles Film Critics Association.

Disney:

The Princess and The Frog is Disney's 49th animated feature film.
It's Disney first 2D animated film since 2004.
Disney's animated films have been nominated for 63 Oscars (36 of which were for Walt Disney produced short films)
Disney's animated films have won 17 Oscars (10 of which again were for Walt Disney produced short films).
During the 1990's, half of the Best Song winners were Disney films (Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, The Lion King, Pocahontas, and Tarzan).
Disney remains to be the only studio to have an animated film nominated for Best Picture. Beauty and the Beast had 6 nominations total.

I think Up will continue Pixar's Best Original Screenplay streak. Add Best Animated Feature, Best Score, and Best Sound Editing. That's 4. I don't know if any original songs have been written for the film.

The Princess and The Frog should be good for 2 Best Song nominations. Add Best Animated Feature, Best Score, and Best Sound Mixing. That's 5. Best Sound Editing remains a possibly, as well as Best Adapted Screenplay.

It'll be close but I think on account of it being a musical, The Princess and The Frog will top Up in total nominations.

Just because they already have four Animated Feature Oscars, while Disney itself has none, I think Princess has a better shot at winning, assuming its good.

But I think it's still Ponyo's to lose.

I think Princess actually has a better shot for 3 main reasons:

More overall nominations
Better release date
Black cast

It's almost as if its Dreamgirls and its competing in the Best Musical/Comedy Golden Globes category but its the Best Animated Oscar category instead.

I'm not really impressed with the character designs. Not much personality to them.

Depends on a number of factors. We haven't seen either films yet, and we have no idea on what Disney is planning to do with the huge amount of self-competition. I mean, Ponyo is Disney-distributed, Up is as well, Princess And The Frog and that other one I forgot about...

Arghhh you edited your post...

The only true unknown is box office.

I think its reasonable to assume both will be critically well-received based on the track record of the 2 creative teams.

I'll admit I'm biased but I don't see Ponyo as being a factor.

I think it's Pixar's Up VS. Miyazaki's Ponyo.


At this point I wouldn't be surprised if The Princess and the Frog didn't even get a BA nom. It needs to be really good, great even. The big Disney return to 2D/musical isn't going to be enough.

Yeah. Character design is really lacking. Basically it's nothing we haven't seen before from Disney. Apart from the black princess. But paint bucket solves that too.

I'm not sure how heavily you can bank on "The Princess and the Frog" being a huge financial success. I mean, there hasn't been a 2D blockbuster since Tarzan (not counting The Simpsons), and that had way more commercial appeal than this does.

Yeah, it's really Up Vs. Ponyo.

And Up is winning. It's not gonna even be close.

Lilo and Stitch?

Let's look at past Nov-Dec animated releases

The Incredibles - 261 Mill
Monsters Inc - 255 Mill
Toy Story II - 245 Mill
Aladdin - 217 Mill
Happy Feet - 198 Mill
Toy Story - 191 Mill
The Polar Express - 180 Mill
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa - 180 Mill
Beauty and the Beast - 171 Mill
A Bug's Life - 162 Mill
Chicken Little - 135 Mill
Bee Movie - 126 Mill
Bolt - 114 Mill
The Little Mermaid - 111 Mill
The Prince of Egypt - 101 Mill
The Rugrats Movie - 100 Mill

We can't talk about whether this has limited commercial appeal until the trailer hits in May. Until then, we can only compare it to The Little Mermiad and Aladdin (John Musker and Ron Clements) which were both very well received.

They'll both get pawned by Ponyo, UP looks to be like Pixars first crap release, and disney 2-D ended because it sucked.

I hope Princess and the Frog can somehow revive 2D Animation again, but the chances are slim.

Anyway, this year could be the most awesome Best Animated Film contest ever if enough films allow it.

Up, Ponyo, Princess and the Frog, Coraline, and 9. 9 is the most iffy since it just has the short that was nominated for Best Animated Short while the others have much more backing them, but it looks to be an epic Best Animated Showdown.

Or so I hope.

You can't say much about UP really as all Pixar movies tend to look crap in their promos. They're just not good at actual trailers. Having said that, UP has probably the best Pixar trailer ever. Also those who saw first 45 minutes said the movie was great. I don't think UP will be crap. Just the opposite.

Princess and the Frog's success will very strongly depend on good marketing. Disney needs to do that right because if it flops, there's barely a future for 2D animation.

However, I think Disney knows that and will go all out with the marketing. With its release date, it should make at least $100 million.

it will take a 150m marketing budget to reach that.

It was a pretty big hit, but I think Tarzan was the last uber-successful 2D film.

I have high hopes for The Princess and the Frog. As much as I adore Pixar, I miss the 90s golden age of 2D animation.

I didn't realize so many people are on the fence about the film.

Produced by John Lasseter, with music by Randy Newman, from the directors of Aladdin and The Little Mermaid. Seems like a no brainer.

Ditto

I wish both well and also miss Disney's 90s heyday of 2D. That said, If Up is as good as they say, I cant see Princess and the Frog beating it (or Ponyo). Also box office wise it will have to face Alvin and the Chipmunks. It will survive along side but could easily do a Treasure Planet.

Princess and the Frog is most likely looking at Enchanted numbers I think.