From the creator of "The Dark Knight Will Not Be Nominated for Best Picture Club." I can't remember how that one turned out.

As for Avatar...Best Visual Effects? Sure thing! Sound Editing? I wouldn't bet against it! Best Picture? Were you not watching when Sid Ganis said "The Reader?"

Members:
yoshue
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Linda Hamilton
Dr. Lecter (important stipulation: only a member so long as Avatar is not the single largest grossing movie of all time )
trixster
ladiesman
Jon
Christian
billybobwashere (But he is already making arguments as to why Avatar could happen...he even mentioned The Dark Knight...I am suspicious, and he may be a mole) -UPDATED 8/22- SUSPICIONS CONFIRMED HE IS A DIRTY MOLE AND IS BEING MOVED TO THE FOOLS CATEGORY
Price (He has built himself an escape hatch, though...just jump in, man, come on!)
Gulli

Non-Committal, but appear to be thinking logically:
roo

The Titular Fools:
John Savage/Monsieur Marin/Benjamin Milk/Wolverine Blart/?
loyal (it seems)
Shack (says AMPAS wants to 'make up' for The Dark Knight snub...you know that Academy, Shack, always trying to make amends to the internet fanboys. Right.)
Flava'd
bradley witherberry
Tyler (a pox on he and his family)
billybobwashere

A Fool, but also a member of the club:
ChipMunky

Members Who Are of a Lower Caliber Because They Did Not Join Until the Uninspired Trailer
Mr. Aniston
Darth Indiana Bond

In, unless it beats Titanic's total gross.

yeah, I'm in

I think only loyal will be on the wrong side of this one. We've learned our lesson.

Umm ya I agree.

Not nominated?!?

Make me laugh.

Avatar is not only going to win Best Picture, but afterwards the Academy is going to retire the Best Picture category of the Oscars in perpetuity as an homage to James Cameron, God of Hollywood.

Count me on the "wrong side" too. I think from all the buzz I'm hearing, the fact that a love story is the center, and a good release date, this could eat up the academy. Not sure about a win, that still feels unlikely for something so.... futuristic, but it will get the nomination.

Yeah, I'm in.

I haven't even seen a shred of film. Doesn't sound Oscary though.

I've been against this film since it was announced. I'm in.

I'm in, though I miiiiiight withdraw when I see a trailer.

It's easy to say I would be in because most signs point to it being excluded. In fact I'm on the edge to just giving into this more rational outcome, but I think I'll give it some more thought before I make a decision.

James Cameron will destroy you with his hand of god powers

Avatar will be nominated. They'll make up for the TDK outrage

No they won't.

It has the December release going for it though, which the Dark Knight didn't have. And it's going to be the greatest movie ever. So a nomination isn't so much.

AMPAS is not in the business of appeasing angry internet nerds, Shack. As we learned, oh, two-and-a-half months ago.

The movie could have a lot of things going for it that TDK didn't:
-December, not July, release
-James Cameron, Oscar's beloved, as opposed to the unknown Chris Nolan
-If these VFX are as revolutionary and groundbreaking as they say, the film could score at the Oscars in the midst of all the insane buzz
-It's not a superhero movie
-There probably won't be a focus on one win -- TDK was really hurt by the fact that all of TDK's buzz surrounded Heath Ledger, so nominating him seemed to justify not nominating the film

So there's certainly a chance that Avatar could get nominated for BP.

That said, the Academy sucks when it comes to nominating "different" kinds of movies, so I'm definitely joining this club.

The only reason I'm not guaranteeing this is because a) we've seen NOTHING from the film, b) Nobody knows anything, and TDK could have missed by a single vote.

So, yeah, it's not getting nominated anyway. I'm definitely in, dude.

I've decided nobody can bring up LOTR. They're practically David Lean films with wizards.

It won't outgross Titanic, so I am fully in.

Lecter, I wonder how committed you are to that train of thought. Should Avatar gross, oh, let's say, $595 million domestic, would you still say no?

Everyone likes that "nobody knows anything" adage, but you know what? We know lots of things. We know, for example, that it's really, really fucking unlikely that the Academy will see fit to nominate for its top award an expensive science-fiction epic shot in 3-D.

We don't know for sure, no. But we know enough to know what's likely.

Yes. But that's not happening either.

No, no it's not.

IN. I would like to a place to belong

Christian, you belong everywhere.

It is my simple hope that this club can be worthy of you.

In.

But I reserve a change of opinion after a trailer comes out and we finally know what other pictures will be released come Oscar time.