In 2008 we had 2.
2007 - 1
2006 - 1
2005 - 0
2004 - 2
2003 - 2 (though another 2 crossed $90 Mill)
2002 - 2
2001 - 2

Depending on how things shake out in the fall, we could possibly have 3 $100 Million BP nominees. It would be the first time since 2000, when we had 4 (the 5th grossed over $70 Mill).

Up (May 29th) - No doubt it will cross $100 Million on its way to $200 Million and above. The bigger question is whether it can outgross WALL-E, in box office and popularity and create a mandate.

Public Enemies (July 1st) - Mann's last two films, also summer releases, Collateral and Miami Vice averaged to about $80 Mill. Add Depp and Bale to the equation should push it well past $100 Mill.

Shutter Island (October 2nd) - Not as user friendly as Marty's last October release The Departed. But with the right buzz, it could cross $100 Mill.

Nine (November 25th) - Rob Marshall's last musical with less star power made $170 Millon. Even if it does half of Chicago, it's close enough to $100 Mill.

The Lovely Bones (December 12th) - I may be a fool but I think PJ's name alone is now enough to secure a big opening and push it over $100 Mill.

Avatar (December 19th) - Cameron's last film released on December 19th grossed $600 Million dollars, won 11/14 Oscars, and rewrote the history books. Avatar could do half as well and still be gamechanger.

Clint Eastwood Nelson Mandela Film (December) - Guessing it's box office is the very definition of a crapshoot. Gran Torino, $130 Mill. Million Dollar Baby, $100 Mill. Changeling, $35 Mill. Flags of our Fathers, $33 Mill. Letters from Iwo Jima, $13 Mill. And that's all within the past 5 years.

What movies is Fox Searchlight having this year? Will they end their streak of having at least one BP nominee? They seem to be on a big roll.

(2004 Sideways)
2006 Little Miss Sunshine
2007 Juno
2008 Slumdog Millionaire
2009 ?

I don't think anyone expected any of these movies to be nominated when their respective years started. And they managed to turn Juno and SM into $100+ million grossers.

Sideways and Little Miss Sunshine were destined to be players out the gate, whereas Juno and Slumdog grew in an incredible fashion.

Searchlight only has Amelia as its big Oscar film.

Eh. That doesn't look like a $100+ million grosses. And I can't see it playing a big role in BP game. Swank on the other hand should get another nom.

But I can't see Nelson Mandela biopic crossing $100 million either. Amelia looks more of a mainstream movie.

Mandela would probably do about $70 million best-case-scenario.

Avatar is very doubtful. They just got very phobic about even nominating these kinds of films no matter how good and big, and I don't think Cameron's any more a magical entity than Jackson. I think the only reason they went for Lord Of The Rings is because of the one-two-three punch and because the Harold Blooms of the world are finally accepting it.

The Lovely Bones is really gloomy subject matter, but as long as PJ hasn't lost his goddamn mind, it should do well, or okay considering the sizable budget for a drama. The book has a pretty big fanbase that will certainly show up.

Up is less doubtful, because Pixar will probably end up making a GREAT movie for the third year in a row and they only get closer to a nomination with each movie, but still no barring a $250+ million gross and Disney pulling it out of Animated Film contention, and even then I wouldn't predict it higher than a #7.

Nine doesn't seem as accessible as Dreamgirls or Chicago even with the star power it has, but of course it'll hit $100 million as long as it gets close to a Best Picture win.

Shutter Island will probably be $60 million or so, barring incredible reception.

I think Scorsese will ride on a wave of appreciation ater The Departed, so unless Shutter Island sucks, I see at least $80 million.

Avatar is obvious, and the only lock right now I think.
Up would be too, but if Wall-E went 1/6, it's just not going to happen with how "weak" 2008 was. And I doubt Disney will try to push so hard for it since Best Animated Film this year is going to be tight I think, and they'll be forced to back up and try to lock up Best Animated Film again.
Public Enemies will probably gross over 100M, but I doubt it's going to get any big award buzz.

Take up off that list, Pixar has no chance.

I'd guess one, and it's a film nobody is thinking of right now.

No, I agree. Watchmen will definitely be nominated for Best Picture.

I keep hearing that Slumdog came out of the blue last year and the same about No Country but both killed at festivals. Box office wasn't predicted but the films were talked about.

So in the regard, it can't be a film no one is talking about unless it hasn't gone into production.

So, does that mean Push will be a sleeper?

It's not called Push anymore.

My Precious

I thought there was already a Precious for 2009 with Viola Davis.

Right now. No one was talking about Oscar potential for either film in February. Cannes and Toronto are still months away. Though NCFOM didn't pass $100 million, Juno did, another film that no one talked about until it premiered.

Without PJ The Lovely Bones would be a candidate for the high 70s/80s. The book is just very popular among recent works and at Christmas time (even though it's gloomy it has a positive message *sniff*) it would probably do well regardless. PJ and releasing it in December should help it easily cross 100m.

Avatar is a no brainer.

I'm on the fense with Eastwood and Scorsese movies, it completely depends on the film.

Public Enemies should be okay.

Nine should theoretically make 100m but I may be alone in saying that while cinephiles love the cast that make no mistake, as far as the public is concerned Chicago (being a much more famous boardway musical with Zeta-Jones and Zellweger and Gere, who trump Kidman/Cruz/Cotillard/Day-Lewis in any popularity contest) is a little more challenged than is being recognized on WOKJ.

I think Scorsese and Eastwood are both draws. Letters wouldn't have cleared $5 million without Eastwood's name. Scorsese's finally become a big brand of sorts, somehow awareness of his name among average people has really gone up in the last few years.

In its favor Nine has 3 weeks before Globes are announced. I'm assuming it'll have anywhere between 7 and 10 Globe nominations.

Best Comedy/Musical
Best Director
Best Actor Comedy/Musical
Best Actress Comedy/Musical
Best Actress Comedy/Musical
Best Actress Comedy/Musical
Best Supporting Actress
Best Song
Best Song
Best Song


Chicago had 8, 5 in acting.