I started a similar thread for 2007 a bit less than a year ago, so now, with 2007 pretty much wrapped up, it's time to start another discussion here. Here was the 2007 thread.

Let's keep up the talk and make sure that this forum stays one of the biggest at KJ!


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Here are my initial thoughts:


The big guns:


Australia:

Had it in last year's thread, didn't realize it'd take so long for this to be released. It has a ton going for it. It's Baz Luhrman's first work since his Oscar-nominated Moulin Rouge and it's one of those few movies that can snatch really a whole lot of nominations because it looks to be a sweeping epic romance á la Gone with the Wind or The English Patient. As of late, the Academy seems to embrace such films less than it used to, but Cold Mountain and Atonement at least got 7 noms each and I think that with its cast, its Director and the WWII theme as well as the fitting release date, it'll certainly be a player, barring Memoirs of a Geisha-like reviews.


Public Enemies:

Not sure it'll make it to the screens this year, but if it does, it'll be in for big things. Just think of the cast: Johnny Depp, Christian Bale, Marion Cotillard! And Michael Mann directing! It might go the way of American Gangster of course...or not. Certainly a movie to watch out for.


Revolutionary Road:

Based on a very acclaimed novel dealing with the shadow sides of subirbia in the 1950s. Sounds tacky? Yeah, but Sam Mendes directing, DiCaprio, Winslet and Katyh Bates starring and with a December release date this looks like a prime candidate. I'd go as far as saying that this is the very very very very very early frontrunner at this point, heh. Not only the cast and the director, but also the rest of the team is impressive. The componist is the 7-times-nominated Thomas Newman, the Editor is the Oscar-nominee for American Beauty, the cinematographer is Roger Deakins himself!


Body of Lies:

Leonardo DiCaprio + Russell Crowe+ Ridley Scott + William Monahan/Steve Zaillian as the screenwriters + a terrorists/war plot = OSCAR BAIT.

Despite all that people say, I still think Scott is due for at least another nom by now and like American Gangster with soem good marketing I see this being a hit. Maybe not as much as Gangster, but it also has starpower and with solid reviews should become a player as well.


Milk:

Gus Van Sant looks to have come back from his experimental flicks with a rather old-fashioned biopic of California's first openly gay elected official, starring Sean Penn in what will likely be another Oscar nomination for him, as well as Emile Hirsch, James Fraco and Josh Brolin in further roles.


The Argentine/The Guerrilla:

Stephen Soderbergh's epic undertaking in brining Che Guevara's life to the big screen might fail mightily...or be his big comeback after the likes of Ocean's films, The Good German and Solaris. Benicio del Toro sure as hell looks likely for an Oscar nom and maybe a second win in what might be THE role of his career.


The Soloist:

Joe Wright is on a roll. Eleven Oscar noms for his last two films. Lemme run this by you:

- Based on a true storyx? Check
- Deals with a homless, schizophrenic, yet talented person? Check
- Stars an Oscar winner? Check (Jamie Foxx)
- Is inspirational? Check

Yeah...


The Rest


Seven Pounds:

Read it for yourself: http://www.comingsoon.net/films.php?id=37021 It reteams Will Smith with the director of The Pursuit of Happnyess. Maybe it won't be a BP nominee, but it certainly looks like another chance for Smith at that Best Actor award. A December release and the fact that The Pursuit of Happyness made $160+ million won't hurt either.


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button:

Another December release that might finally bring David Fincher the Academy attention that he deserves. Surely, the story is a bit bizarre, but with Fincher at the helm and a star-cast of Blanchett, Pitt, Swinton and Julia Ormond this looks like a winner. Certain to be at least considered for acting and maybe directing.


Crossing Over:

Now tell me THIS DOES NOT SOUND LIKE AN OSCAR-FILM PLOT! The director of The Cooler brings together Harrison Ford, Ashley Judd, Sean Penn, Ray Liotta in a movie about immigrants in Los Angeles. Could be another Crash...


Youth in Revolt:

Just read about it here. Sounds like it might become this year's Juno, espoecially with Cera starring. I'm iffy about him probably playing the 14-year old, though...


The Patriots:

An inspirational sports drama released in November, dealing with the aftermatch of Katrina and starring Oscar-winner Forest Whitaker? Sounds good, right? Seems like pure Oscar-bait. However, the name Tim Story certainly does not sound too good.


Miracle at St. Anna:

Released early in the awards season, this Spike Lee-directed war drama about an all-black 92nd Division stationed in Italy during WWII sounds good. I feel, however, that there's no middle ground for it. It'll be either praised or trashed.


Valkyrie:

Mimicking The Departed's release date, this is Bryan Singer's shot at Oscar glory. It'll certainly be a decent box-office success and obviously its story of courage is stuff Oscars are made of. Having the Oscar-winning screenwriter of The Uusual Suspects on board won't hurt either. This might be Tom Cruise's comeback if all goes well.


Nothing But the Truth:

I know, The Illusionist aside, the Yari Film Group doesn't know how to distribute their films well and the September release certainly doesn't speak in this film's favor. However, here's the plot:

"The story centers on female newspaper reporter (Beckinsale) who outs a CIA agent and is imprisoned for refusing to reveal her source. Schwimmer will play Beckinsale's husband, who initially supports his wife's decision not to name names but as time goes by begins to resent her for choosing a principle over her family."

Sounds like the right vehicle for Beckinsale to showcase her acting talents.


The Duchess:

Okay, the teaser looks lame, but it's Keira Knightley in a period film again. That should be good for at least some noms! The September release doesn't help it, though.



He's Just Not That Into You:

One of the few summer-released contenders. Okay, I admit, the director's resumé is less than impressive, but it is one of these intersecting stories-films with quite a star ensemble, among others starring:

Drew Barrymore
Jennifer Connolly
Scarlett Johansson
Ginnifer Goodwin
Jennifer Aniston
Ben Affleck


Blindness:

An acclaimed novel's adapattion by Fernando Mereilles (City of God, The Constant Gardener) starring Mark Ruffalo, Julianne Moore, Gael Garcia Bernal, Danny Glover, Alice Braga and Sandra Oh. Mereilles fared well with his past two films getting 8 Oscar noms overall.


The Lucky Ones:

Coming from the director of The Illusionist this drama stars "Rachel McAdams, Tim Robbins and Michael Pena as three soldiers on leave trying to make sense of their lives during an unexpected road trip across the United States." Don't underestimate the Michael Pena factor! He's been in many recent BP nominees: Babel, Million Dollar Baby, Crash.


Fireflies in the Garden:

Sounds like a prime Oscars suspect, except for the small distributor it seems. Just read the plot :

http://www.comingsoon.net/films.php?id=41885

The movie stars Ryan Reynolds, Julia Roberts, Willem Dafoe, Emily Watson and Carrie-Anne Moss and its plot really sounds like it has been made for the Oscars specifically.


Defiance:

Another shot Ed Zwick takes at the Oscars. Blood Diamond garnered five noms and The Last Samurai four. Starring Daniel Craig and Liev Schreiber it really has a baity topic. We'll see...



The Reader:

Stephen Daldry has made Billy Elliot and The Hours and has been nominated for both of them. Now he brings us a love story based on a bestseller starring Kate Winslet and Ralph Fiennes. Now if that doesn't sound Oscar-y, I don't know...


Shanghai:

Maybe finally John Cusack will get his due. This is the Oscar-nominated Mikael Hafstrom's follow-up to 1408, also starring Ken Watanabe and Gong Li.


Burn After Reading:

The Coens are obviously big now and this has an all-star cast of looney, Pitt, McDormand, Malkovich and others...but it is still a comedy. Maybe a screenplay nod and one or two acting nods will happen.


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Feel free to add new ones or discuss these!

Green Zone

Iraq-based drama. Oscar nominees Damon, Ryan and Kinnear star. Penned by L.A. Confidential's Oscar winning screenwriter Brian Hedgeland. Paul Greengrass directs.

After UA93's nominations despite controversy and some refusal to watch the film, and Bourne's sweepage tonight, I don't think this film is to be underestimated. At the absolute least, Editing should be locked.

Otherwise, nice list.

But...IMDB says 2009, Jon : )

Seems like the trend lately has been more towards auteurs and ballsier films, while rejecting the pure Oscar bait

I'll look more at it tomorrow, but one thing, I think Ruffalo's getting nominated. Seems like he's ready for the leap.

Yeah....that it does.

Well, I have my 2009 frontrunner then...

Revoultionary Road will fail miserably. So will Australia. I just know it.

My super-very-ealry out-of-fun predictions for BP canididates would be:


Revolutionary Road
Australia
One of the Che-films
Body of Lies
Crossing Over/The Reader

In about 10 months, I'll be happy if at least 2 of them are still in contention, heh.

Really looks like a year for Winslet and DiCaprio to win at last!

2009 also has the Clint Eastwood-directed Morgan Freeman/Matt Damon-starring Nelson Mandela biopic. What do ya say to that?!

I'd put money on Wall-E winning animated feature. Other than that, I have nothing to contribute.

That Clint's deal with the devil expires at the end of this year, and a renewal is unlikely.

hA!

And as an extension of that, I'd like to also predict WALL-E as the early frontrunner for both Sound categories. Sci-Fi + Animation x WALL-E's voice essentially being made by the sound crew = easy choice.

It's so early. Luhrman is a divisive figure; some love his films, some hate them. So I don't expect Australia to be a big, big contender.



I dunno. I think we should look at foreign films for performances now, given how ready the academy has been to honour them in recent years.

Australia really looks like a rather conventional epic, so I don't really think it will be too divisive.

If not wins, at least nominations. Probably in score, too.

is Chicago Seven coming out this year?

just to see how close I ultimately come...

-Revolutionary Road
-Australia
-Body of Lies
-Burn After Reading (surefire nominee, no-chance winner)
-Milk

However, if Chicago Seven comes out this year, it's definitely a frontrunner for a nom, and I'm very sure some currently unknown comedy will sneak into the race. I don't think anyone had even heard of Juno until last summer.

No Chicago 7 this year.

Well Gabriel will throw a song on the Soundtrack so put Wall-E up for song too.

I think Australia is going to be a heavy technical favorite if anything. Costumes, Make-up... typically Baz has interesting Cinematography, Production Design, etc.

I think the worst it will do is become like Sweeney Todd, best it could do is full on and tech heavy BP contendor. If I had to choose a film now that would probably go into the night with the most noms, I'd guess Australia.

It's also a war film. It has a lot going for it.

I think Benjamin Buttons could be pretty large player.

Right now, I don't know enough about anything to make any predictions. But I do want Heath to get a very unlikely at this point Supporting Actor nod (I forgot to mention how awesome I thought it was that his "clip" in the memoriam was from Brokeback). And I also wan Milk and Valkyrie to do well so that two gay dudes can duke it out for Director.

Re: Heath... there's a lot of time between his death, Batman and then the show again. At this point, I just don't see it happening.

Maybe if he was in an 'Oscarish' movie but... I mean I'm not saying it can't happen but... meh.

How about Killing Pablo?

Story about Pablo Escobar starring Javier Bardem ( as Escobar ) and Christian Bale

Probably not a big player in most categories, but could pull off a couple acting nods for the films leads.

The Academy sure likes Bardem and Christian Bale is bound to be nominated at some point. But...

It's a Joe Carnahan film (which doesn't bode well for quality)

It's 2009 anyway according to IMDB.

Bale's biggest chance will probably be in 2009 with Public Enemies.

2009 really has some MONSTER films doesn't it?

It does. I don't want to think about it. A situation in which Christian Bale and Johnny Depp are nominated in the same category (if it ever happened) would literally tear me in half.

Looks like there are more A-list studded Oscar bait films coming out this year than any before.

We could have a best actor line up resembling this:

Hugh Jackman
Brad Pitt,
Leonardo DiCpario
Benicio del Toro
Sean Penn

And a Best Actress line-up including:

Nicole Kidman
Kate Winslet
Julianne Moore
Angelina Jolie

Some of these films seem too good to be true. I think the case with alot of them will be more box-office oriented than Oscar bait, but look at where that landed The Departed.

I thought I read somewhere that Burn After Reading was just a CIA thriller and probably nothing more and Body of Lies can certainly end up like American Gangster. This will also mark the THIRD time Leo will have two great (well, presumably) roles vying for a nod. 2002, 2006, 2008.

Damn. and Swinton is in TWO movies with Pitt and her second with Clooney. I take back what I said in the Oscars wrap-up thread about Clayton being a one-time shot for her.

Milk and The Argentine look like character pieces... as in they will get the lead acting noms and probably not be Picture material but they have great directors attached, so I don't know.

It's gonna be a really interesting year!

In any case, I call it Winslet's and DiCaprio's year. Both have two films coming out, directed by: Sam Mendes, Ridley Scott, Stephen Daldry. Wow, what a line-up!

Also, it is possible that if alll goes right, Revolutionary Road will sweep the Oscar noms, I could see it getting up to 10-11, same for Australia.

Oh, and Best Actor or Actress is going to a biopic film. You just know the streak will continue. It was close this year, but Cotillard pulled it off. We haven't had two non-biopic winners since 2003.

I can't wait for best actress!!

I think it could end up being Meryl Streep vs. Kate Winslet. How great that would be!!!