The nominees are

Dustin Hoffman (Kramer vs Kramer, Rain Man)
Tom Hanks (Philadelphia, Forrest Gump)
Jack Nicholson (One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, As Good As It Gets)
Daniel Day-Lewis (My Left Foot, There Will Be Blood)
Sean Penn (Mystic River, Milk)

Some numbers

Wins by date

Nicholson - 75
Hoffman - 79
Hoffman - 88
Day-Lewis - 89
Hanks - 93
Hanks - 94
Nicholson - 97
Penn - 03
Day-Lewis - 07
Penn - 08

Hoffman's 2nd win was over 20 years ago and was nominated only once since then in 97.

Nicholson has 12 nominations total, and was last nominated in 02. It's been over 10 years since his last win.

Day-Lewis has only been nominated for Best Actor 4 times but has won twice. Those two wins separated by nearly 20 years.

Penn has been nominated 5 times for Best Actor, 3 of which were in this decade. His last two nominationes were also wins.

Hanks has the honour of being one of only two actors ever to win Best Actor back-to-back. His last nomination was almost 10 years ago, his last win, 15 years ago.

Of the 5 actors, I think Day-Lewis stands the best chance of being nominated next for Best Actor (this year's Nine). I don't believe the other four even have lead performances this year.

HOWEVER, history isn't on Day-Lewis's side for a win. Only one Best Actor performance from a musical has ever won and that's Rex Harrison in My Fair Lady. That's compared to

3 wins for Best Actress (Minnelli in Cabaret, Streisand in Funny Girl, Andrews in Mary Poppins)
3 wins in Best Supporting Actress (Hudson in Dreamgirls, Zeta-Jones in Chicago, Moreno in West Side Story)
2 wins in Best Supporting Actor (Grey in Cabaret, Chakiris in West Side Story)


You can twist the data a bit and include music biopic wins like Foxx for Ray or Rush for Shine. But I'd prefer to stick with the strict definition of musical.

I think Tom Hanks has the greatest chance of winning for lead again. Nicholson may be too old and could retire soon. Hoffman will only get mainly supporting roles as even his praised lead role for Last Chance Harvey didn't get any nomination. Day-Lewis and Penn's most recent wins are too soon to give them a higher chance at a win before Hanks.

Most likely - none. Academy likes to spread the wealth.

However, if one of them will make it, it's Daniel Day Lewis. He's just THAT good. And he has a movie with Scorsese coming up.

I'd like for Nicholson to win again, though.

Daniel Day-Lewis deserved 3 Oscars for There Will Be Blood!

Hanks really hasn't had anything worthy in nearly 10 years. And it doesn't look like he's looking at Oscar. I wonder why he didn't get involved in Munich... I thin it could have gotten him a nom.

I think Penn and Day-Lewis have the best shots because they are still very much hot right now for bate material.

I don't think Nicholson has another Best Actor trophy in him. Maybe supporting actor. About Schmidt was really his last best shot. You never know though. I mean Clint Eastwood gives hope to all the golden oldies.

I wonder if he had been cast in Gran Torino instead of Eastwood if he would have gotten alot of attention. Hey, he should probably get himself in an Eastwood pic. Then he's be back in the mix

Sean Penn, 3-time Oscar-winner? I dunno, it has a weird sound to it.

BTW, I wouldn't rule out Russell Crowe to make it one day. He does a lot of baity stuff.

Horrible actors will never win 3 Oscars.

Not with his attitude history. He hasn't even managed a single nom since A Beautiful Mind. I honestly don't think he'll win 2 Lead awards

Well, he's been damn close with Cinderella Man. And he's not old...and I see him making baity films for a long time.

I think Hoffman can be ruled out. I think he's done as a leading actor.

As for Nicholson, I wouldn't be shocked to see an insane supporting actor win. But as for lead, I have a hard time imagining what type of lead role he would be cast in, let alone win an oscar for it.

I think Hanks will soon move to directing and producting full-time. He might squeeze out a great lead perfomance years down the road (he's 52 now) but by then, we'll probably have a few more double Best Actor winners to talk about.

That leaves Penn and Day-Lewis.

Not to be corny but Sean did go full-retard and only managed a nom. But most of his nominations have come from the past decade. So either he's on a great streak or it was dumb luck. I also see Sean directing more in the future, so perhaps that's where his Oscar glory lies.

I have to go with Daniel-Day. He's hitching his wagon to some high-profile films and will probably be nominated for Nine and Silence (both lead performances I believe). I doubt he'll win this year but I think the momentum will push a third Oscar his way sooner rather than later.

Day Lewis easily.

anyone but Sean Penn
out of your list i say DDL has the best shot.

Denzel should've had 3 by now.

The only thing with DDL is... If he doesn't win another soon, I don't think he will. I mean, he's at his peak now, and after this flurry of films, he WILL slow down and start being picky again.

The guy's still picky as hell.

Hilary Swank

wait nevermind

This.

Penn has a few interesting projects in the pipeline

Malick's Tree of Life
Doug Liman's Fair Game
an action film called Cartel with Javier Bardem.