Turns out I created the 2007 thread on 12.20.

viewtopic.php?f=16&t=36927

The Dark Knight - $530,759,822 (after 154 days)
WALL-E - $223,762,336 (after 175 days) *
Vicky Christina Barcelona - $22,586,222 (after 126 days)
Slumdog Millionaire - $9,739,000 (after 38 days)
Rachel Getting Married - $9,654,803 (after 77 days)
Milk - $9,106,000 (after 24 days)
Happy-Go-Lucky - $3,057,050 (after 70 days)
Frost/Nixon - $1,208,000 (after 15 days)
Doubt - $904,000 (after 8 days)
Gran Torino - $509,000 (after 8 days)
The Reader - $256,450 (after 9 days)
The Wrestler - $143,000 (after 3 days)

Not Yet Released

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road

* = no longer in theatres

Am I missing any films?

For comparison, where BP nominees were pre nomination over the past 5 Oscar seasons.

2007 (1/122)

Juno - 87.0
No Country for Old Men - 48.8
Atonement - 32.6
Michael Clayton - 39.3
There Will Be Blood - 8.6

2006 (1/23)

Departed - 121.7
Little Miss Sunshine - 59.5
The Queen - 35.8
Babel - 22.8
Letters from Iwo Jima - 2.5

2005 (1/31)

Crash - 53.4
Brokeback Mountain - 51.6
Munich - 40.7
Good Luck and Good Night - 25.1
Capote - 15.4

2004 (1/25)

Ray - 73.0
The Aviator - 58.4
Finding Neverland - 32.7
Sideways - 32.4
Million Dollar Baby - 8.4

2003 (1/27)

Return of the King - 338.3
Seabiscuit - 120.2
Master and Commander - 85.3
Mystic River - 59.1
Lost in Translation - 34.8

I dunno....In Bruges and Tropic Thunder maybe?

As of Dec. 20, 2008 - TDK made more than all competitors combined in less than 9 days.

3/5 times the top grosser won. TDK will make it 4/6.

Crash wasn't the top grosser.

So... 2/5

Crash was top grosser pre. nom.

that only counts for the pre-nom frame.

BP Winners since 2000

Gladiator - highest grosser
A Beatiful Mind - 2nd highest grosser/FOTR highest grosser
Chicago - 2nd highest grosser/TTT highest grosser
ROTK - highest grosser
Millon Dollar Baby - 2nd highest grosser/The Aviator highest grosser
Crash - 2nd highest grosser/Brokeback Mountain highest grosser
The Departed - highest grosser
No Country for Old Men - 2nd highest grosser/Juno highest grosser

That doesn't bode well for TDK.

Also, in every situation where the highest grosser didn't win, with the exception of M$B and The Aviator, the box office difference between the two films was on average around 50%

Take WALL-E out and it made more than all the competitors combined times 10.

Wall-E made... 42% of TDK...

Well, if we're looking at trends since 2000

Well, cancel the ceremony! A fucking Batman movie made a lot more moolah than a biopic of a gay rights crusader and a flm about an Indian game show contestant.

can we compare 2008 to 2003?

Return of the King - 338.3 TDK
Seabiscuit - 120.2 Curious Case
Master and Commander - 85.3 Slumdog
Mystic River - 59.1 Milk
Lost in Translation - 34.8 Frost/Nixon

I'm quite certain you will be the only person to ever make that bolded comparison.

Yeah, Master and Commander was much better. But if I'm measuring 5 films from 2003 in the pre-nom frame, it's either the #3 slot or #4.

Beyond quality since I haven't seen the latter, one is a mega-expensive seafaring epic, and the other a small film about a kid who goes on a game show.

I realize you only mean box office, but still!

TDK is 100% better in quality as well.

I don't know how much Slumdog can possibly gross between today and the 22nd of January. There's nothing I can find to compare it to (R-rated overhyped Indian film).

robot cartoon will not win.

And of course you know, doubtlessly having seen each multiple times. They just can't keep you away from those prestige pictures!

The Reader has already been out for a week.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=reader.htm

Update as of Thursday numbers

The Dark Knight - $531,027,799 (after 182 days)
WALL-E - $223,762,336 (after 175 days) *
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - $97,024,737 (after 22 days)
Gran Torino - $50,997,411 (after 35 days)
Slumdog Millionaire - $36,837,205 (after 65 days)
Doubt - $24,031,987 (after 35 days)
Vicky Christina Barcelona - $22,913,815 (after 154 days)
Milk - $19,601,224 (after 51 days)
Rachel Getting Married - $10,631,622 (after 105 days)
Frost/Nixon - $7,959,161 (after 42 days)
The Reader - $6,289,998 (after 37 days)
Revolutionary Road - $3,950,178 (after 21 days)
Happy-Go-Lucky - $3,422,661 (after 98 days)
The Wrestler - $3,311,968 (after 30 days)

* no longer in theatres

Assuming Frost/Nixon gets in and depending on how it performs this weekend, it could be the lowest grossing pre-nom english language film since 1996 (Secrets & Lies).

That's why I'm thinking it won't get in. It's making maybe $500,000 this weekend with a $9 million total. Even with a Best Picture nomination and the 800-theater expansion I doubt it would clear $20 million, let alone its budget. Tends to correlate with the campaign...

Frost/Nixon is in. 100%.

The only 100% film is Slumdog.