When watching the Oscar announcements live, which surprise inclusions/omissions in the acting/screenplay categories will give great indications for what's to come for BP/BD?

Last year, Into the Wild's omission from Screenplay was a strong indicator that an unexpected spot will be open for Best Director, and that it wouldn't get in for Actor or BP.

The combination of Atonement being the first BP nomination announced, Juno getting BD, and Michael Clayton getting all 3 acting noms + director => these together immediately implied that Diving Bell was the one that would get snubbed from BP.

What should we watch out for early on this year that will help anticipate the BP/BD announcements before they announce it?

Some I could think of:

• Gran Torino for Screenplay means it will get Picture and maybe Director. Changeling in Screenplay means Eastwood will get Director.
  
• Happy-Go-Lucky in all three of: Screenplay, Actress and Supporting Actor means Leigh in Director
  
• Any of the Locked five misses out on Screenplay means it won't get Picture, this includes The Dark Knight.

I don't know, I could definitely see TDK missing Screenplay but still getting in.

Adapted Screenplay is pretty weak this year, I don't think TDK can miss there. Much of the praise for the film has been how Godfather-esque the crime story is.

part three, right?

lolz

Zingggggggggggg!

+1

Adapted Screenplay is big. The Reader or Revo. Road gets in and BP is up in the air, whether it's for TDK missing for one of those two or Wall-E. I just realized The Reader has an 87 on BFCA... with the Globes director nom and BAFTA, and the guilds being unaccurate last year, it's the biggest spoiler IMO. Obviously if the kid or Leo gets in it means something too.

Another thing to notice is, what order do they name their nominees within a category?

I know that for Best Picture they go chronological order of the movie's title, e.g. Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood. But does anyone remember for acting/screenplay do they go chronological order of the person's last name or by the name of the movie? We should compile a list so that if a contender's name is skipped, it will become immediately apparent that s/he got snubbed.

Acting follows first letter of last name of performer.
Directing follows the first letter of movie title. Writing should be the same as Directing.

Alphabetical order, not chronological.

And yeah, what Christian said.

well it certainly isn't weak in the sense that four of our likely five Best Picture nominees are contending there, with a few other literary adaptations (Revolutionary Road, Doubt, The Reader) vying for spots... and I think screenplays based off such "respectable" things as plays or famous novels have a better chance than comic-book-sequel-adaptations.

I wouldn't really mind either way... it's still getting a ton of noms, and probably BP/BD on top of everything else.

If Eddie Marsan and Sally Hawkins both get in, then Leigh will be nominated for Director.

I would normally say so but I feel the top 5 this year is like inpenetrable. TDK is the movie I see as the vulnerable BPer and Nolan definitely isn't missing director, so yea, even if Marsan gets in I don't see it for Leigh

If Milk gets two supporting actors, it secures the BP; on the other hand, if it gets none, then it misses.

If The Visitor gets screenplay, Jenkins gets in, if that's the announcement order.

I'll pay attention to the strength of Revolutionary Road from screenplay/actor/supporting actor.

If BB doesn't get an acting nom, it could be in trouble.

If Eastwood misses Actor, forget about Gran Torino.

Here is a alphabetical order reference to immediately notice when a contender missed out in the top 8 categories:

Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
The Wrestler


Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Andrew Stanton, Wall-E
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler


Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire


Original Screenplay
Burn After Reading
Happy Go Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Synecodoche
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Visitor
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler


Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road


Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
James Franco, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemary DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Vera Farmiga, Nothing but the Truth
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frieda Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader



Printable version here:
http://rapidshare.com/files/187423401/Oscar.pdf.html
File can be downloaded 10 times, then will need re-upload.

^Nice!

they should read them out of order just to fuck with us.

Start with WALL-E and have everyone scrambling for films starting with X,Y,and Z.

OMG... Yes Man!

Wall-E
The X-Files: I Want to Believe
Yes Man
You Don't Mess with the Zohan
Zack and Miri Make a Porno

The order has been like this for the last few years:

Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Actress
Actor
Director
Adapted/Original Screenplay
Animated Film
Foreign Film
Picture

So only the acting categories will really alert us to anything in Director, but that plus the Screenplays should give us enough of an idea of what's going on (Like last year the Into the Wild snubs in S. Actress, Actor, Director AND Screenplay pretty much killed that film, while Juno in Director confirmed it was in Picture).

I've always thought they should wait like 2 minutes between each nom. Make it an hour long show. Then we could all get in our "omg omg what's next what's next? I predict this!!!" before the next nom comes in and we're like "Tommy Lee Jones? What the fuck?"

They should play hangman with the noms... and if the "audience" doesn't guess correctly, then we never find out...

BOOM!