Stephen Daldry's challenging, thoughtful Holocaust drama "The Reader" is going to push Batman out of the Best Pictue race. For a film people supposedly don't love (oh, the reviews just weren't good enough!), "The Reader" has remained a strong contender this season, with notable showings at the Golden Globes and now the British Academy Film Awards. Plus, it features one of last year's most celebrated and memorable performances and the Academy, in general, loves Daldry.

I know, I know, it's a longshot, but I have a gut feeling and I'm going with it. Anyone else predicting "The Reader," in a Thursday morning upset, to be nominated for Best Picture?

Don't forget the poor box office.

And if this does happen, I'm not watching this year.

"Poor"? I know it hasn't exactly done Gran Torino numbers, but it did open with a $20,000+ PTA and had a moderately successful Christmas Day expansion. People have seen it and will continue to do so.

It'd be one of the all time KJ Oscar meltdown moments.

But you never know...

The Weinsteins have been irrelevant for a while now.

Of course, there is The Ghost of Chocolat.

Moderately successful? $3k PTAs in 400-some odd theaters are not good, especially for a would-be Oscar contender that cost $35 million.

Dude, it got some BAFTA attention. Big deal. The Reader is not a concern outside of Kate.

I personally think it's too late "of a surge."

Yeah, had this positive attention come earlier when all the coverage it was getting was for its behind the scenes mess, thing may have been different. But I still think it would not have ended up in the top 5.

No.

A Supporting Actress and maybe Screenplay nom will suffice.

People tend to forget that by all accounts most of the ballots are filled out/returned the week after they are sent out, ie. they are filled out by the first week of January. Which is why Gran Torino's Box Office and The Reader's BAFTA nomination might be indicators of Academy leanings but won't have as much direct influence on raising the stakes.

Just my 0.02.

...

I could actually see it happening. It probably won't though, but if there were some surprises I could see this being one.

I doubt it very much. TDK isn't getting bumped. I hate to say it but the Oscars need some attention, after last year was dominated by indies and consequently did the worst ratings in Academy history. There is just no way they will knock the biggest movie since Titanic so that another indie can get the spot. Also TDK has a 94% on RT, Reader has 60%. I know critics don't mean everything but they do make a difference.
Also, it's not a very good film.

This. Will. Happen.

An understatement!

It's possible it could get in over FROST/NIXON too.

In-fuckin'-deed.

Wow.

Um. Props.

it makes sense, it's a more obvious pick than something like TDK... but god, how many people honestly preferred seeing this get in over TDK?

Congratulations.

I'm okay with it's nomination to be honest.

Remember when The Pianist was unexpectedly strong against Chicago?

Will this have a chance at a win if people want to honor Anthony Minghella and Sydney Pollack one last time?

I honestly prefer The Reader to The Dark Knight, though I do sympathize with disappointed Batman fans.