I made a similar thread last year for No Country for Old Men...

viewtopic.php?f=16&t=36930


And while I went thinking the whole time that the BP race is still undecided, I think by now it's time to concede to Slumdog very very likely winning. It has won:

Golden Globes - Best Picture/Director/Screenplay/Score
BFCA - Best Picture/Director/Screenplay
National Board of Review - Best Picture/Screenplay


Nominations:

Two SAG noms, including Ensemble
WGA nom
DGA nom
PGA nom


It's doing well at the box-office with $100+ million likely with the Oscar noms to come.

Its main competitors are:

The Dark Knight (missed SAG Ensemble and GG Picture/Director noms)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (reviews are just decent, not great, standing at 72% at RT and it's also not as huge at the box-office as initially thought...looking at $150-160 million without a win).
Milk (too small and too gay)


I don't think anything else even stands a chance at all.

Its a straight shootout between Slumdog and Button (which should have most noms). Slumdog will win.

It's a sure thing. If Button was to make headway it would've been via the starfucking Globes, and if TDK was to it would've been through the BFCA where it has the highest score. Slumdog won both.

Having seen the film, it has BP type written all over it. It's definitely not the small ish indie offkilter dramedy I thought it was after Toronto. Slumdog mixes a gangsters and guns storyline, romance, sympathy for a minority culture, and an inspirational underdog story. That's just a BP formula right there. With its AMPA friendly cinematic feel, it's a no brainer.

There's still the possibility of a backlash, but unlike the one against BBM there isn't a single film to really rally behind for voters.

I think it's going all the way.

Umm... it's not getting nominated?

Also...Brokeback was gay, heh. There's actually little reason for a backlash. Everyone seems to like it *shrug*

Benjamin has around Crash's score. I wouldn't say critics are too important.

Oh poor Chippy

For some reason I dont see it keeping its steam until the Oscars, but again the question is what exactly would stop it? And I got nothing

Benjamin Button? The big support doesnt seem to be there
Milk? Treading water
Dark Knight? If DK does end up getting the nod and also the most nominations of all films than I'd have to say its the biggest threat Slumdog has, but a lot of things need to go right

Eh, nothing is ever sure until Oscar night. But this is pretty close.

I don't think Ben Button has much of a chance to unseat it (thank God). It had its shot at Critics & tonight. I'm actually crossing my fingers for a Dreamgirls/Cold Mountain style snub, it would be beautiful.

I thought Milk had a good shot at winning but not so much anymore. I don't know what the studio is doing with it, but if they had a clue it would've had a shot at taking home the gold. As it stands, no.

Frost/Nixon, lol. aka the Michael Clayton throw-away nom that has no chance in hell.

The Dark Knight pulling the upset seems most likely at this point but Slumdog seems unstoppable. And with its box office potential about to be fully realized WHILE ballots are out & about only further cements it.

But that was a major upset (and an unfortunate one). There's still a chance that BB or something else could pull a surprise win but it's very doubtful (although I sincerely hope that it does not. It will be almost as much of a mistake as crash was).

Everyone will suddenly realize Frost/Nixon is the most deserving.

It would be so glorious if it lost. I hope it loses a lot of steam, but I doubt it will. Please be a backlash!

Would they really award something with no big names in it? At least Crash had a lot of Hollywood actors in it.

Golden Globes = foreign journalists
BFCA=critics
NBR=122 New Yorkers

This could easily go the way of Sideways or Brokeback Mountain. Hollywood industry people will not give this the win when they have more friends working in other Best Picture nominees.

Does Danny Boyle qualify as a big name? He's certainly been a high-profile director for a long time, and was previously nominated for the Trainspotting screenplay.

Not big enough. And I believe he means stars, which is why he said "in it." Danny Boyle isn't in it. This isn't an M. Night Shyamalan movie .

Whatever.

Not sure how a backlash is possible. I've heard people say it's overrated but very, very few dislike it. I'm as fickle as they come and I've seen it 3 times and enjoyed it every time. The people who are ardent supporters are ardent supporters. Plus the people involved in making it are all super cool, and not at all controversial. Where's the backlash going to come from? And what movie is going to rally enough support to stop it?

It's going to win the DGA and win by a comfortable margin at the Oscars.

Slumdog just doesn't seem "Hollywood" enough to win. It makes sense that it won the GG as the HFP is like that but the Academy is another matter.

The backlash would come from those people who didn't love it (like ones who thought it was OK or even just "good") getting sick of it winning everything , or just moving on to loving a different film. This isn't an unforgettable movie. It's just the flavor of the week/month. People will eventually get over it, and hopefully it's very soon. I watched it with my niece a week ago and she "liked" it, but then we watched the BFCA's and now the Globes and she has come to loathe it because it just isn't THAT good. I myself hate it more and more with each passing day, and I gave it a C+ to begin with. I'll still keep that rating, but I've come to hate it like I'd hate something I rated an F . It is just not Best Picture material and not deserving of all of this praise . Like I've said before, it's better suited for Best Picture at the MTV Movie Awards.

I haven't seen it and don't really care to do so anytime soon.

I kind of wish you would though, and that you wouldn't care for it . We need more haters .

Danny Boyle stinks. The only halfway decent movie he's ever done was 28 Days Later.

I'm sure I'll eventually see it in theaters considering it should be expanding now and in theaters for a while. This coming weekend has too many other films I'll be seeing but perhaps next weekend as only two films open and Inkheart looks imminently skippable.

I haven't gone to just one movie at the theatre in a very long time (at least two, sometimes 3 movies per trip is the norm) so I'll need another movie to see with Underworld and maybe Revolutionary Road, depending on how wide it expands on the 23rd.

I loved 28 DAYS LATER and found SUNSHINE great also. MILLIONS was decent, but if that were in the same position as SLUMDOG I'd have come to loathe it as well. SLUMDOG and MILLIONS, which are actually kind of similar, IMO anyway, are his worst movies. At least that I've seen. I never saw TRAINSPOTTING , but honestly doubt I'd like it.