Yeah, I'd bet with you. What stakes?

Yeah, we know.

Seriously, I can't imagine the members of the Academy leaving this one out of BEST PICTURE Consideration.. They love the guy..

So, you lose...you have to carry a The Dark Knight avatar as well as a signature picked by the winner for three months...alright?

Hmm, that's not in my power, so suggest something else.

You have to wear a Dragonball avatar.

I'll bet all three of my testicles.

I'll promise to assassinate Obama if you win. If you lose you must do it...............with a rubberband and a stick.

The CIA will come knocking at your door soon.

The listening station for Ireland is undergoing maintenance I'm safe!

Do they plug electric appliances into potatoes over there?

Potatoes are better then you think!

I still quasi-suspect Gran Torino will be nominated for Best Picture. lol It's been well-received by critics and especially audiences, it's a huge hit, and it's Clint. I'm not saying it will be nominated, but it wouldn't surprise me either.

Aside from the fact that the movie itself isn't BP-worthy, there's a larger problem: WB has both TDK & Ben Button as well as Gran Torino. So really it cannot get in (that'd be 3 from WB; 3 from the same studio hasn't happened in like 30 years).

Ben Button's mostly Paramount. And Buena Vista DOMINATED 2002.

BKB, you should have pushed for Clint winning best actor instead. The film doesn't have any supports from the guilds, and it's not a film with a lot of effects or costumes or anything, so the film isn't going to get anything in the way of an Oscar nomination. Clint as Best Actor, maybe the song as Best Song, maybe an editing nom, etc... That's all that can be expected for Gran Torino, because the buzz over Eastwood's performance overshadows the buzz of the film.

They jointly financed it as quid pro quo for Zodiac (which Fincher wanted)..."mostly Paramount" isn't telling the whole story. Distribution, yes, but financing, no. All of the FYC ads have WB & Paramount.

Also, Miramax dominated 2002...but Miramax was a whole different ball of wax from Buena Vista when the Weinsteins were running it. Disney (BV) had virtually no say in anything.

This argument is a bit moot, though, since Gran Torino's chances hover at around 0%.

I'll bet that it wont even be nominated for best picture.

No, it doesn't have to be an effects movie, that was just one of the examples I gave for what gets voted for. The academy is made up of about 6000 members.

Actors-1,243
Producers-454
Executives-440
Sound-412
Writers-396
Art Directors-373
Directors-374
Public Relations-369
Members at Large-254
Shorts/Feature Ani-330
Visual Effects-264
Music-235
Editors-223
Cinematographers-195
Documentary-141
Makeup-116
Total Voting Members -5829

Precursors for the nominees are gathered from things like the guilds. You have the SAG (screen actors guild http://www.sag.org/ ), the DGA ( Directors Guild of America http://www.dga.org/ ), the PGA (Producers Guild of America http://www.producersguild.org/ ), and the WGA (Writers Guild of America http://www.wga.org/ ). These guilds are run by the biggest chunk of academy membership. You can see above that the actors, directors, producers, and writers make up nearly 2500 of those nearly 6000 members, and their own awards this year don't suggest at all that Gran Torino is one that those branches of voters are supporting in the Oscar race.


You have to get the votes from somewhere, and that's why I mentioned how Gran Torino isn't even an effects movie or a movie with costumes and such, because Art Direction, Visual Effects, Sound, Makeup, etc... They are more apt to vote for stuff they worked on, like Dark Knight or Benjamin Button. Wouldn't you throw your support behind Dark Knight if you or some of your friends worked on it?

The actors, directors, and producers are Clint's best friends. When he does a movie like Unforgiven or Mystic River, which are universally acclaimed, and have actors getting guild and academy support, chances are they'll also vote for the movie, and the same goes for the writers, voting the screenplay, etc..., but Gran Torino is all about Clint the actor and screen legend. The other actors are just window dressing, and while the movie is very well received, it's not on par with the critical reception of Dark Knight or Milk, for instance, so those films have much more support as films across the board than Gran Torino does.

I hope that clears it up some.

While I'm not predicting Gran Torino to win BP. There is a stunning thread at The Envelope in which one Oscar voter revealed his nomination ballot and his choices for BP. He hadn't seen many films and chose only three for BP his choices were

1. Happy Go Lucky
2. Gran Torino
3. Slumdog Millionaire

The Envelope now has Gran Torino in 6th place just behind TDK among likely BP nominees.