I think you know what I mean with this. In the last three years, three films came to what seemed extremely close to getting nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, yet somehow missed out. Okay, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is the odd one because it was actually foreign, small and got a BD nod in contrast to the other two, but considering how good it looked for it last year, I still think it should be mentioned.


Just to remind the people how far these three films got:

2007:


The Divng Bell and the Butterfly

Boston Society of Film Critics Awards - Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Foreign Film
Kansas City Film Critics Circle Awards - Best Director, Best Foreign Film
LAFCA - Runner-Up for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Foreign Film and winner for Best Cinematography
Motion Picture Sound Editors - Best Sound Editing nom
American Society of Cinematographers - Best Cinematography nom
Art Directors Guild - Best Contemporary Art Direction nom
BFCA - Best Foreign Film, Nominations for Best Picture and Best Director
Golden Globes - Best Director, Best Foreign Film, nominated for Best Screenplay
Online Film Critics Society - Best Foreign Film win, nominated for Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Cinematography
DGA Awards - Nominated for Best Director
PGA Awards - Nominated for Best Picture
WGA Awards - nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay

It pretty much sweeped the guilds as far as nominations go (with the prominent omission of the Editors guild and the SAG), but what convinced me most that it would get in were the Golden Globe Best Director win as well as the DGA/WGA/PGA noms.

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2006:


Dreamgirls


Total Gross: $103,365,956 (would have been the 2nd-biggest nominee that year9

8 Oscars nominations in total

American Cinema Editors - Best Editing win (Musical/Comedy)
Art Directors Guild - Best Art Direction (Period) nomination
BFCA - Wins: Best Song, Best Soundtrack, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress; Nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Ensemble
Central Ohio Film Critics Association - Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Breakthrough Performance
Cinema Audio Society - Best Sound Mixing win
Costume Designers Guild - Best Costume Design (Period) nom
Golden Globes - Wins: Best Picture (Comedy/Musical), Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress; Nominations: Best Song, Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)
Motion Picture Sound Editors - Best Sound Editing (Musical) win
PGA Awards - Best Picture nom
DGA Awards - Best Director nom
SAG Awards - Best Supporting Actor win, Best Supporting Actress win, Best Ensemble nomination

Here it was a missing WGA nom, but then again, it still got DGA, PGA and three SAG noms as well as three Golden Globes wins.

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2005:


Walk the Line


Total Gross: $119,519,402 (would have been the biggest BP nominee in its year)
Nominated for 5 Oscars in total, including Best Actor/Actress noms (and one win)


American Cinema Editors - Best Editing win (Comedy/Musical)
Art Directors Guild - Best Art Direction win (Conetmporary)
BFCA - Wins: Best Actress, Best Soundtrack; Nominations: Best Actor, Best Picture
Chicago Film Critics Association - Best Actor and Best Actress noms
Cinema Audio Society - Best Sound Mixing win
Golden Globes - Best Picture (Comedy/Musical), Best Actor (Comedy/Musical) and Best Actress (Comedy/Musical) wins
Motion Picture Sound Editors - Best Sound Editing win (Musical)
PGA Awards - Best Picture nomination
SAG Awards - Best Actress win, Best Actor nomination


It missed out on WGA and DGA, but then again Ray didn't get WGA and PGA noms and grossed less and still made it.

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I think to a certain degree it was srprising for each of the three that they were not nominated for Best Picture, considering the precursors.

Do you think there's a movie this year that might have the same happening to it?


I'd say Frost/Nixon if it misses a DGA or a PGA nom could fit the bill. Or Benjamin Button which still does not have me convinced. I think Benjamin Button could get 6-7 noms and yet miss out on one for BP.

I'm not naming The Dark Knight because of no SAG Ensemble nom and no Globes Picture nom. It would not be THAT huge of a srprise by now.

Wall-E

I'm worried that it might happen to Milk. It went from getting a lot of this-will-win-Best-Picture buzz around the time of its release to one-of-the-less-competitive-nominees buzz. That's sorta what happened to Dreamgirls after it came out, isn't it?

The only big thing that Milk missed so far were the Globes, but otherwise, it is going very strong.

I would go with either Frost/Nixon or Ben Button, moreso the former.

I don't see the PGA going with Frost/Nixon, though Howard should get find himself at the DGA cermony. He's thrice nominated, winning 2 awards.

I really hope it's Frost/Nixon.

Wall-E

The Dark Knight.

Ben Button, unless F/N gets snubbed at DGA/PGA.

But that's the point. Dreamgirls and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly both got DGA and PGA noms, yet were snubbed for a BP nom.

F/N has been having a lot of awards so far, though.

Ben Button I'm still not sold on financially.

I'm really beginning to think this is TDK, for WALL-E.

I'll need to give it a couple days.

I'm not sure there necessarily is a Walk the Line/Dreamgirls/Diving Bell type nominee this year. Every Oscar year is a little different and the factors that lead to the final 5 are never exactly the same obviously.

I guess it depends on the individual. If Wall-E doesn't get nominated I won't draw any connections at all, since I didn't/don't feel that it has a chance at BP at this moment. If it does squeak in, it will probably remind me a bit of Babe.

Maybe there isn#t a similar film this year, but let's say, WALL-E gets WGA and DGA noms and still misses out on a BP nom...then I'd draw a connection, I suppose.

If Wall-E gets a DGA or a PGA nomination I will, in general, rethink my position on it. WGA not so much.

As of now, that has yet to happen. So this is shaky speculation based on already shaky speculation

No one seems to know if it's even eligible for the PGA thanks to its own animated category.

I mentioned this in the other thread but I think Walk the Line's snub being a surprise had a lot to do with us taking the Globes and box-office to be more important than they are and not being as rock solid with the guild trends. Missing SAG, DGA, and WGA, plus having a weak critical reception.. eh. I'd compare it to Doubt this year. In reality we should've realized Capote was a total lock going into nom day (it had all 4 big guilds + top 3 critical reception + Actor win), it was really Munich vs WTL, in the end Munich had the more important DGA and Spielberg behind it I guess.

Diving Bell's snub comes down to being foreign and pretty low-profile when the ballot came out in late December. Its BFCA was also a pretty weak 83. Most nominees go over 90.

Dreamgirls got Clint'ed. Can't explain that one much more, it was pretty set. Maybe if it starred white people.

As far as I can remember...we did realize that Capote was a lock. It was down to Munich vs. WTL and the latter had a stronger position thanks to the box-office (and Munich had a late release date).

I think Diving Bell was hurt by the SAG absence most. Otherwise it was going just as strong as Dreamgirls.

Then, reaching out further back, there was of course Being John Malkovich with GG, SAG, WGA, DGA, PGA and several other guild noms. And Almost Famous.

I think the 5 are pretty much settled in TDK, BB, F/N, Milk, and Slumdog.

We could have Wall-E being the "snub" from the critics/audience standpoint, Doubt being the "snub" from SAG, and Wrestler being the "snub" from DGA. Have no idea what the PGA will go for this year. GG are irrelevant.

Actually, the GG are not irrelevant.

Remember last year, SAG, DGA, WGA and PGA completely snubbed Atonement...but the Golden Globe Best Picture win kept it alive.

The only way in which the Golden Globes win is relevant is that it *perhaps* shows how much passion there is for a particular film behind the scenes in Hollywood... and that's shaky given that the voting audiences are completely different.

The Golden Globes are held like the night before Oscar nominations are due. This year the Awards are on the 11th and the ballots are due on the 12th. By all known accounts, most folks don't wait until the last minute to turn in their Oscar ballots so I think the idea that the GG win has enough impact to sway a nomination is off.

I actually think the significant BAFTA support for Atonement is what got it in. There is after all a fair amount of overlap between the BAFTA and AMPAS memberships, I believe.

Yeah, I agree that's more significant than the GG win.