Button has become the 11th film in Oscar history to get 13 nominations or more.


As for the other ten, seven won Best Picture:

From Here to Eternity
All About Eve
Titanic
Forrest Gump
Chicago
Shakespeare in Love
Gone with the Wind

Three lost, but still picked up several awards:

The Lord of the Ringhs: The Fellowship of the Ring (4 wins)
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (5 wins)
Mary Poppins (5 wins)


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So I started to wonder whether Button will become the one with the least wins out of these 11 films.


Its noms are:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Score
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Art Direction
Best Visual Effects
Best Make Up
Best Sound Mixing

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At this point it looks like it'll lose Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing and likely Cinematography.


So it has a solid chance at the following:

Visual Effects
Sound Mixing
Art Direction
Make Up
Score
Costume Design


I think the sound award will rather go to Slumdog, WALL-E or The Dark Knight.

Costume Design...Australia and The Duchess probably have the upper hand here.

Score - Slumdog Millionaire seems like the frontrunner.

So - I guess Art Direction, Make Up and Visual Effects will probably be the ones it'll settle for. Or even less.

I think a lot of people are counting this out too early.

Nah.

Anyway, it'll win three or four techies, before beginning its fast descent into oblivion.

I think it still has a good shot at Picture, but the guild awards will tell.

Since 2004, every film that won BP at the Globes hasn't won BP at the Oscars. And Slumdog doesn't have any acting noms either or really famous "Hollywood" people in it, and as Weinstein proved, having Hollywood contacts can help, a lot. The last non-ROTK film to win BP without any acting noms was Braveheart over 15 years ago.

Stats like those are generally meaningless. Did you know movies starring Brad Pitt have never won Best Picture? And a December release hasn't won since 2004. Stunning, I know.

It's all about the temperature in a given year. We like to find supposed trends and what-not to help us think things are exciting, but they rarely are. Certainly not this year.

The assumption being that there won't be a BP/BD split.

Actually as shitty as the nominations turned out to be, the show itself should prove to be interesting at least for the first hour or so. We should know if Slumdog's 10 noms were flukes and there's a real race that night.

Slumdog got more nominations than

No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
The Departed
Brokeback Mountain
A Beautiful Mind
Moulin Rouge
American Beauty
Good Will Hunting
Fargo
Apollo 13
Pulp Fiction
Shawshank Redemption
The Piano
Unforgiven
JFK
Silence of the Lambs
Goodfellas
Rain Man

It's bizarre for a film with NO acting nominations that's not an epic.

The fact that The Departed ended up with only five noms still stuns me.

That number just doesn't sound right, does it. But if you look at Goodfellas, it only got 6?

I hope not.

In regards to The Departed, I still can't believe it ended up with just one acting nomination and for Mark Wahlberg no less, considering how much hype was generated by the lavish, star-loaded ensemble cast.

But The Departed actually ended up being a BP winner...when was the last time before it that the BP winner had five noms overall? That'd be Annie Hall in the 70s. And that was a low-key comedy.

Studio fucked up.

I think that if they really do ignore Benjamin Button in the major categories, they'll make up for it by giving it a couple more techs than it seems destined to win. Perhaps it'll win Score or Cinematography over Slumdog, for instance, since Slumdog will be making up three huge votes for a lot of these voters.

I wouldn't mind that too much, Slumdog winning best score is a tragedy to music.

I think Button will walk away with 3 or 4 at this point.

But I don't think people are gonna be like "OMG, Button just got the record for least wins for an almost most nominated movie ever!"

Actually a lot of newspapers are hyping Benjamin B's 13 nominations, so if it only walks away with 3 or 4 the media will have a field day with it.

not really, they usually judge things by win count, and I'm guessing the headlines are gonna read, "Slumdog, Benjamin Button big winners at Oscars", with Slumdog taking 4 or 5 Oscars, and BB being in second with 3 or 4. It'll seem like it was the second best performer.

There's NO WAY it'll pull a 0/13, though.

I think at least two are absolutely locked: Best Visual Effects (they love giving those to BP nominees) and Best Make Up.

Slumdog will take at least 5 and possibly 7 Oscars, so I don't think media will pay much attention to what happened to Benjamin Button, unless Pitt wins Actor. They don't normally mention much outside the big 8 categories.

What are Slumdog's chances to sweep and actually take 9 home?

While I think it'll win Best Makeup, The Dark Knight could certainly pull a win there too. The Joker/Two-Face combo plus the lack of major category attention gives it a strong chance there.

5%

If it takes Song, Score, Sound Editing and Mixing, then yes, a sweep is happening.

And if it goes 0/4, we may indeed have some suspense going into adapted screenplay or editing. But I think Song is one of the last categories to be announced since they need to mix the nominees in (although with only 3 nominees this year, it may be earlier), so we may not get that kind of clean break between those categories and the rest that Slumdog is nominated in.

Make-up is locked. Two-face is good but honestly nothing compared to the revolutionary work in Benjamin.

I think that at the very least, Benjamin Button has Makeup and Visual Effects in the bag. That's two, and I think it can probably nab Art Direction for three. Beyond that, Costume Design is a possibility (though if the last two years are any indication of the taste there, The Duchess has it), and Cinematography and Film Editing will be tough, but could happen. As for the five major nominations: We'll see how it goes with the guilds.